Tough Fold, but it paid off!!
This hand happened in a 10man tourney last night. I was going to push, but seeing the action in front of me, I decided to fold. Considering my stack at the time, it took awhile to fold it, but it paid off, moving me from 4th place to a 2nd and making some money!! 
Table Speed Young at Heart (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: GoingGray (2124)
Seat 3: kakkerlak010 (10993)
Seat 8: beermonk (3430)
Seat 9: Herr_Zatacke (3453)
Herr_Zatacke posts small blind (300)
GoingGray posts big blind (600)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to GoingGray [ Kd, Jc ]
kakkerlak010 raises (10993) to 10993
kakkerlak010 is all-In.
beermonk calls (3430)
beermonk is all-In.
Herr_Zatacke calls (3153)
Herr_Zatacke is all-In.
GoingGray folds.
Creating Main Pot with $10890 with beermonk
Creating Side Pot 1 with $46 with Herr_Zatacke
Creating Side Pot 2 with $7540 with kakkerlak010
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, Jh, Kc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ts ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 8h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 10890 | Side Pot 1: 46 | Side Pot 2: 7540
Board: [ 9d Jh Kc Ts 8h ]
GoingGray balance 1524, lost 600 (folded)
kakkerlak010 balance 18476, bet 10993, collected 18476, net +7483 [ 8d 8s ] [ three of a kind, eights -- Kc,Jh,8d,8s,8h ]
beermonk balance 0, lost 3430 [ 9h Ah ] [ a pair of nines -- Ah,Kc,Jh,9h,9d ]
Herr_Zatacke balance 0, lost 3453 [ 3d Ad ] [ high card ace -- Ad,Kc,Jh,Ts,9d ]
Table Speed Young at Heart (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: GoingGray (2124)
Seat 3: kakkerlak010 (10993)
Seat 8: beermonk (3430)
Seat 9: Herr_Zatacke (3453)
Herr_Zatacke posts small blind (300)
GoingGray posts big blind (600)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to GoingGray [ Kd, Jc ]
kakkerlak010 raises (10993) to 10993
kakkerlak010 is all-In.
beermonk calls (3430)
beermonk is all-In.
Herr_Zatacke calls (3153)
Herr_Zatacke is all-In.
GoingGray folds.
Creating Main Pot with $10890 with beermonk
Creating Side Pot 1 with $46 with Herr_Zatacke
Creating Side Pot 2 with $7540 with kakkerlak010
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, Jh, Kc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ts ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 8h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 10890 | Side Pot 1: 46 | Side Pot 2: 7540
Board: [ 9d Jh Kc Ts 8h ]
GoingGray balance 1524, lost 600 (folded)
kakkerlak010 balance 18476, bet 10993, collected 18476, net +7483 [ 8d 8s ] [ three of a kind, eights -- Kc,Jh,8d,8s,8h ]
beermonk balance 0, lost 3430 [ 9h Ah ] [ a pair of nines -- Ah,Kc,Jh,9h,9d ]
Herr_Zatacke balance 0, lost 3453 [ 3d Ad ] [ high card ace -- Ad,Kc,Jh,Ts,9d ]
Comments
I'd like to know what the other guys were thinking. Especially the goose stepper. Never mind - they were soooooooooooted.
Just goes to show you that you should never give up. Anything can happen in this game!
what he said
Now, if it was KK you folded and villain showed AA, then you and I could write a book.
1) Position is CRITICAL - If I were first to act in this hand, I most likely would have pushed this hand. Since I was last, and saw the action in front of me, it was a fairly easy fold.
2) Chip & A Chair is all you really need - I've been known to come from behind and score big when needed, hence lesson three...
3) NEVER give up - There's always a chance, as slim as it might be, to pull off the miracle you need...Moneymaker is also proof
And finally,
4) NEVER EVER post a hand here without expecting the truth from the guys you have played with. I'd probably be feeling sorry for posting this if what everyone has said so far wasn't the truth. It should have been a VERY easy fold considering my position AND all the action up front...really don't know why I hesitated.
Thanks guys...I know you still love me
If it was folded to you then you may have considered pushing. Me personally I prefer an Ace-Rag to a K-Q or K-J, any day. Too many times I've seen it come down to high card plays and when it is High Card plays I want to have the highest card in my hand.
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 8d 212948 19.61 871196 80.22 1864 0.17 0.197
Ah 9h 118682 10.93 953659 87.81 13667 1.26 0.113
Ad 3d 121693 11.21 950648 87.54 13667 1.26 0.116
As Ac 619018 57.00 453323 41.74 13667 1.26 0.574
Ditto for KK
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 8d 175544 16.16 908359 83.64 2105 0.19 0.162
Ah 9h 182188 16.78 865539 79.70 38281 3.52 0.185
Ad 3d 129531 11.93 918196 84.55 38281 3.52 0.136
Ks Kc 560464 51.61 523439 48.20 2105 0.19 0.517
The button's A9s call is questionable, but not too bad considering the blinds.
The SB's A3s call after the button already called is terrible... this is the guy you need to thank.
/g2
If only the top 2 get paid, then my guess is calling with the AA would maximize your expected winnings, since you don't want either of the middle stacks to triple up then your chances of surviving to the money would be much less than a coin flip. Using this particular hand as an example, if you fold AA, there would be a 49% chance (33.9% + 15.3%) that either of the middle stacks will triple up and become the chip leader while you remain on the bubble. But if you call with AA, you have a 57% chance of quadrupling up and moving up to top 2 in chips.
cards   win   %win   lose   %lose  tie   %tie   EV
8s 8d 694313  50.65  671610 49.00  4831 0.35 0.508
Ah 9h 425318 31.03  864823  63.09 80613 5.88 0.339
Ad 3d 170510 12.44 1119631 81.68 80613 5.88 0.153
Standard Party top 3 paid...it was a low buyin SnG, 10man game. I wouldn't have posted it if it wasn't such an unusal outcome for me, moving from bubble to second place by NOT playing a hand.
Now if I have had AA, would I have folded, considering my chip stack and position?? Tough one...not sure if I would call even then.
A) EV of folding AA
   ~ (50.65% * $31.52) + (5.88% * $7.62) + (43.47% * $23.05)
   = +$26.43.
   ~ (57.4% * $37.85) + (42.6% * $0)
   = +$21.72.
So do I get the 10 CPF bucks?
=================================================================
A) After folding AA against the three all-ins, there are 3 main scenarios.
cards   win   %win   lose   %lose  tie   %tie   EV
8s 8d 694313  50.65  671610 49.00  4831 0.35 0.508
Ah 9h 425318 31.03  864823  63.09 80613 5.88 0.339
Ad 3d 170510 12.44 1119631 81.68 80613 5.88 0.153
1) The best-case scenario for the hero is for the big stack kakkerlak010 to win with 8-8 and eliminate the other two players. As bolded above, this has a 50.65% chance. GoingGray will have 1,524 chips left or 7.62% of the 20,000 total chips, with kakkerlak010 having the rest. These remaining two players are assured of winning at least $30, and will be playing for an extra $20 for the first prize of $50. Using the assumption that the probablity of winning is based on the chip %, the approximate EV of GoingGray is $30 + $20 * 7.62% ~ $31.52.
2) The worst-case scenario is a split, thereby letting the two middle stacks survive. There is a 5.88% chance of the A-9 and A-3 splitting. A 3-way split only has a 0.35% so this can be ignored for the approximation. With 4 players still competing for the $100 prize pool while GoingGray only has 7.62% of the chips, the approximate EV is $100 * 7.62% = $7.62.
3) The chances of either A-9 OR A-3 winning is 31.03% + 12.44% = the remaining 43.47%. This will result in one of the middle stacks getting eliminated or on the verge of elimination with only 46 chips left. After there are 3 players left, everybody is assured of getting at least $20 each while the remaining $40 is up for grabs. The approximate EV is $20 + $40 * 7.62% ~ $23.05.
The total EV of folding aces is approximately +$26.43.
cards   win    %win   lose   %lose   tie    %tie    EV
As Ac  619018 57.00  453323 41.74   13667  1.26   0.574
8s 8d  212948 19.61  871196 80.22  1864   0.17   0.197
Ah 9h  118682 10.93  953659  87.81  13667  1.26   0.113
Ad 3d  121693 11.21  950648  87.54  13667  1.26   0.116
There is a 59.3% chance of the best-case scenario of kakkerlak010 winning the two side pots, in which case there will only be two players left. The approximate EV in this case is $30 + $20 * 42.48% = $38.496. The 2.03% chance of more side pots is considered negligible in this approximation.
In the 28.4% chance that A-9 wins the side pot, beermonk will survive with 3,918 chips (20%) while Herr_Zatacke will be effectively dead. After there are 3 players left, everybody is assured of getting at least $20 each with the remaining $40 up for grabs. The approximate EV in this case is $20 + $40 * 42.48% = $36.992.
In the remaining 12.2% chance that A-3 wins the side pot instead, Herr_Zatacke will have 3,964 chips (20%) while beermonk is eliminated. kakkerlak010 will have 7,540 chips left or 38%. The 3 remaining players will win at least $20 each, with $40 up for grabs. The approximate EV in this case is also $20 + $40 * 42.48% = $36.992.
pokenum -h 8s 8d - ah 9h - ad 3d / as ac
cards   win   %win  lose   %lose  tie  %tie   EV
8s 8d 643146 59.22 439334 40.45  3528  0.32 0.593
Ah 9h 298419 27.48 765544 70.49 22045 2.03 0.284
Ad 3d 122398 11.27 941565 86.70 22045 2.03 0.122
The total EV of calling with AA
~ (42.6% * $0) + 57.4% * [(59.3% * $38.496) + (28.4% * $36.992) + (12.2% * $36.992)]
= 57.4% * $37.847
= $21.72, which is less than folding the AA.
Excellent analysis BlondeFish!!
Greg, give the lady her prize!!!
I read the analysis last night and wondered where some of those numbers came from but I see now more details have been provided.
I'll declare the winner and try to transfer these 'lira' on the weekend.
Is blondefish a chick, I never really gave it much thought, I just liked looking at the avatar.
Not sure, just assumed he/she was female. Apologize if otherwise. But I like the avatar too.
Ok BlondeFish gets the bucks. Good job. I tried to send $11.11 to see if it would work. It did not.