SnG - Bubble situation

mads777mads777
in Online Poker
UTG: ( $609 )
BB: ( $2824 )
SB: ( $8215 )
Button: ( $8352 )

Blinds(300/600)

2 fold

SB raises to 1500
BB is all-In 1024 more
SB calls 1024

BB shows A8o
SB shows J9s

Who's the donk? :fish:

Comments

  • beanie42beanie42
    mads777 wrote:
    Who's the donk?  :fish:
    Neither, in my opinion.

    The SB is 2nd in chips and well in front of BB, BB has a random hand, and UTG is crippled so BB will fold more hands than normal. Based on this, SB tries to steal. Good play. Only thing I don't like is the bet size, since he's committed to calling any raise, so just put the BB all-in.

    BB has an A against what is a fairly obvious steal. If he reads the play as a steal, he is only a small favorite against a random hand. Basically, he's deciding to take a coin-flip to jump back in to contention to win at the risk of going out 4th. I'd fold here more often than not, mainly due to the crippled player, and the few times where the steal is actually a real hand (in which case he's way behind and/or dominated). However, I can't fault the BB here anymore than if it was AK vs a pair, and I admire the guts to go for the win rather than the money.
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    The SB's play is completely standard. I'm pretty sure the BB should fold, maybe I'll run the ICM calculation later just to be sure but I don't think it's very close. It's not about playing to win here, it's about making the play with the best expected value.
  • beanie42beanie42
    SirWatts wrote:
    It's not about playing to win here, it's about making the play with the best expected value.
    Good point, and something I routinely ignore in tournies (something to work on ;) ).
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    In big MTTs the two are usually the same, though there are definitely lots of bubble and final table situations where they're not. In sit and go's they often are not, especially on the bubble.
  • mads777mads777
    thx guys...in the hand I was SB...and had the same kind of thinking Beanie had...but wasn't to sure it was the good play...I ended up winning the hand and the whole thing few hands later

    I was wondering...in that particular situation with these stacks and the UTG crippled, being the SB, would you make the same move with any two?

    If we are BB, what's the minimal holding we would go/call all-in with?  JJ+, AK, AQ? Fold everything?
  • dblackdblack
    BB should fold. UTG is all in blind next hand and A8 isn't dominating many hands. Yes the SB raises there with anything but it is unlikely that A8 is more than a 3:2 favourite so it is not worth the risk in my opinion when another player is all in blind next hand and you have no fold equity. In this spot I think you play for 3rd then for 1st. If I am the BB here, without actually running the calculations I'd guess that the range of hands to move in with would be something like 99s or higher, maybe AK or AQ but I'm not sure.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    I'd say Beanie. j/k  :D:D:D (for Monteroy)

    With a crippled player, BB should be cautious about even getting involved with something as good as QQ. The SB's move is almost certainly a steal and he should be allowed to get away with it here. A8 is rarely better than 3:2 over most hands. Remember, the difference between 3rd and 2nd, which are prohibitively the most likely places the BB will wind up by folding, is only about 10% of the prize pool. The difference between 4th and 3rd (possibly 2nd), which is where he would end up by moving in, is huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge.

    (Self-defeating plug for HOH3 here - there is a very good writeup on this situation in the new book. For my sake, please do not read it)
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    Yeah as SB you should autopush any 2 there.
  • ChrisWinsorChrisWinsor
    it was a steal, he got caught. Was getting good pot odds and had to make the call.
  • MonteroyMonteroy
    With that chip situation and top 3 paid I would shove as the SB if folded to me even if I did not know what my cards are at the time.
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    Yes, endgame decisions in bubble situations or multi-qualifier events can become quite unusual and counter-intuitive.  Normal poker decisions can become corrupted, such as having to fold pocket aces when one or more players go all in.

    I was playing in a tournament where it was the last chance to qualify for the Tournament of Champions.  Several players including myself had already pre-qualified for the TOC, and the tournament directors announced that the highest-finishing non-qualifier would get in.  One non-qualifier recognized that the proper strategy was to avoid risky confrontations with the pre-qualifiers since he only had to finish ahead of the other non-qualifiers.  He patiently waited for the other non-qualifiers to get eliminated, then it was down to the final five, including myself and another pre-qualifier.  The big stack did not realize that all he had to do was wait for the two remaining short-stacked non-qualifiers to get blinded out while avoiding the two pre-qualifiers.  I went all in, knowing that it would be dumb for any of the non-qualifiers to call and risk getting eliminated or crippled.  The big stack had A-Q and made the blunder that this was a normal poker situation.  Instead of folding and easily qualifying, he called, lost and got crippled. :P
    SirWatts wrote:
    It's not about playing to win here, it's about making the play with the best expected value.
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