Trusting your Instincts
Why don't we, or more directly, why don't I?
I have had KK about 6 memorable times in the past few hours including last nights $3R sat to Sundays tourny. Each time I have raised to 4-5x BB just like I am supposed to, each time someone in LP has reraised me 2x my bet. My first reaction is he's bluffing. My immediate second reaction is he has AA and I should fold...
No, it's too hard to fold KK, but he has AA I tell myself....
Yes I know he has AA, but I have 2 outs to hit a K, stranger things have happened you know.....
Stranger things have happened to other people when YOU have AA (my mind tells me), not to YOU when other people have AA...
Yes I know, I should fold.....
PUSH....
HUH??? WTF did you just do?????
He's bluffing.... he doesn't have AA, he'll fold.....
BUT HE HAS AA, YOU CONVINCED YOURSELF, YOU WERE FOLDING.....
Ya, I know, but I changed my mind, now I think he's bluffing or he has a lower PP.
"MDSGuy24 shows KK and loses with one pair KK"
"Villain shows AA and wins with one pair AA"
Poker is rigged.
No it's not, you are just a dumbass who can't trust your instincts.
Ya, I know.
I have had KK about 6 memorable times in the past few hours including last nights $3R sat to Sundays tourny. Each time I have raised to 4-5x BB just like I am supposed to, each time someone in LP has reraised me 2x my bet. My first reaction is he's bluffing. My immediate second reaction is he has AA and I should fold...
No, it's too hard to fold KK, but he has AA I tell myself....
Yes I know he has AA, but I have 2 outs to hit a K, stranger things have happened you know.....
Stranger things have happened to other people when YOU have AA (my mind tells me), not to YOU when other people have AA...
Yes I know, I should fold.....
PUSH....
HUH??? WTF did you just do?????
He's bluffing.... he doesn't have AA, he'll fold.....
BUT HE HAS AA, YOU CONVINCED YOURSELF, YOU WERE FOLDING.....
Ya, I know, but I changed my mind, now I think he's bluffing or he has a lower PP.
"MDSGuy24 shows KK and loses with one pair KK"
"Villain shows AA and wins with one pair AA"
Poker is rigged.
No it's not, you are just a dumbass who can't trust your instincts.
Ya, I know.
Comments
IMO, trusting your instincts is very important, especially if your instincts are good. But I think that you should be using them to make big calls with marginal hands because you suspect your opponent is on a total and complete steal. Or use them to make flop check-raises against what you feel is a standard continuation bet that missed the flop completely. If your instincts are telling you to lay down KK preflop, don't listen to them. And, don't be too hard on yourself if you do run up against AA. You usually won't.
QQ is another matter however.
If QQ runs up against KK or AA 8.4% of the time, then the odds of KK running into AA being 1 in 23 sounds about right.
Fortunately there are not a lot of smart players min raising.
It seems to be the new in thing these days.
Had one guy min raise my big blind with pocket aces and I called.
Flop 3 4 5
He bet, I rasied, he went all in and went nuts when he saw my 6 7Â
I told him, never min raise my blinds.....
Hobbes
I'd be more concerned that your doctor accidentally gave you the placebo bottle
Hopefully Dave doesn't read this thread...
UTG player just calls ( in the middle of the tournament, 2-3 hours in, and the blinds are worth stealing). I get KK or QQ and raise.
I can't put them on a big pair. They raise all in. Now what.
I think slow playing AA is very tough to do, but if the blinds are high, I could see doing it. Some donk (me) will try to grab them.
I think it is very safe to say that in general folding KK to a min raise is not the strongest play. Â Some people only raise min whenever they raise ( I suspect at times because its the default raise button value and they dont know they can change the bet :P)
I have folded KK very rarely preflop, if I reraise and another player shoves and their stats show they raise about 1 hand in 200 or so it really is not hard to figure out what they have. Â Often I will just call a person's raise if they have those stats and hope a K hits on the flop and see how they play it.
For the most part though KK will work out. Â I would not let a little streak vs AA (we all have them) alter your play that much
that is a hell of a lot of poker. how long / how many tables do you play at once?
Dealt to MDSGuy24 [Ks Kd]
THE_KINGKONG: raises 76972 to 80972 and is all-in
MDSGuy24: folds
THE_KINGKONG collected 11800 from pot
THE_KINGKONG: shows [Ac As] (a pair of Aces)
************************************************
Next hand
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MDSGuy24 [Ah Ac]
Notso Brite said, "King kong should be called Dink Dong, i layed down JJ"
MDSGuy24: raises 8000 to 12000
MDSGuy24 collected 11800 from pot
MDSGuy24: shows [Ah Ac] (a pair of Aces)
*************************************************
Very Next Hand
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MDSGuy24 [Ks Kd]
OutsGalore: raises 12000 to 16000
MDSGuy24: raises 16000 to 32000
OutsGalore: raises 92173 to 124173 and is all-in <<<< WTF?? No way it can't be, trust your instincts right???
MDSGuy24: calls 71268 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [2s 6h 5h]
MDSGuy24 said, "not twice" <<< I cannot fold KK twice in a row, no way....
*** TURN *** [2s 6h 5h] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 6h 5h Tc] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
OutsGalore: shows [Ac Ad] (a pair of Aces)
MDSGuy24: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings)
OutsGalore collected 214336 from pot
How often do you get KK, only to come up against AA unimproved?
It seems to happen to me an awful lot. 3 more times today. This week alone I would guess at 6-8 times. It is getting to be almost an insta fold when I see the smiling little cowboys.
They are fast becoming my most hated hand. I was so frustrated today that I even uninstalled PStars off my computer at work. Now that's pissed!.
Editted to help Monteroy understand sarcasm/humour.
Or accept that odd streaks happen (once I had AA 3 times in a row in a Stars sit and go and went from huge chip leader to out losing to KK, QQ then K 10 all ins preflop). Also, you KK does have a better chance of facing a hand like AA when all in preflop then say 2 8 off. I assume I do not need to explain why.
Fortunately you also will face a ton of AK QQ AQ JJ 1010 type hands where you will have the better of it and will win in the long run.
Still, feel free to uninstall software and fold every KK hand you have if you think that is the better approach. My instincts still tell me that KK is a winning hand.
The reason i imagine is that when you are playing AA, well it's unlikely the rest of the field has any A, so there's less action