What Are the Odds of this...
Ok... Pocket Aces 3 times in 5 hands... I calculated the odds of this... here's the hand history posted as spoiler space if you want to attempt to calculate the odds yourself... funny... couldn't get any action on the last one!:D
***** Hand History for Game 756847599 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:34:35 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $68.10)
Seat 2: MHL888 ( $143.50)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $47.55)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $32.95)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $66.65)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $78.85)
MHL888 posts small blind (0.50)
Spassky72 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Ah, As ]
IAMCORNHOLIO folds.
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 raises (2) to 2
Lucy82 folds.
MHL888 folds.
Spassky72 calls (1)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4d, 5h, 9d ]
Spassky72 checks.
uglyman666 bets (4.30)
Spassky72 calls (4.30)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
Spassky72 checks.
uglyman666 bets (8)
Spassky72 calls (8)
** Dealing River ** : [ 6h ]
Spassky72 checks.
uglyman666 bets (5)
Spassky72 calls (5)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $37.15 | Rake: $1.95
Board: [ 4d 5h 9d 2d 6h ]
Lucy82 balance $68.10, didn't bet (folded)
MHL888 balance $143, lost $0.50 (folded)
Spassky72 balance $65.40, bet $19.30, collected $37.15, net +$17.85 [ Ah As ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,As,9d,6h,5h ]
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $32.95, didn't bet (folded)
mebigchump balance $66.65, didn't bet (folded)
uglyman666 balance $59.55, lost $19.30 [ Th Td ] [ a pair of tens -- Th,Td,9d,6h,5h ]
***** Hand History for Game 756847965 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:35:19 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $68.10)
Seat 2: MHL888 ( $143)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $65.40)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $32.95)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $66.65)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $59.55)
Spassky72 posts small blind (0.50)
IAMCORNHOLIO posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Jc, Ks ]
uglyman666: nh
mebigchump calls (1)
mebigchump: that was ugly man
uglyman666 folds.
Lucy82 folds.
MHL888 calls (1)
Spassky72 calls (0.50)
IAMCORNHOLIO checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, Qs, 2h ]
uglyman666: happens
Spassky72 checks.
IAMCORNHOLIO checks.
mebigchump bets (4)
MHL888 folds.
Spassky72 folds.
IAMCORNHOLIO folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $7.80 | Rake: $0.20
Board: [ 8c Qs 2h ]
Lucy82 balance $68.10, didn't bet (folded)
MHL888 balance $142, lost $1 (folded)
Spassky72 balance $64.40, lost $1 (folded)
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $31.95, lost $1 (folded)
mebigchump balance $69.45, bet $5, collected $7.80, net +$2.80
uglyman666 balance $59.55, didn't bet (folded)
***** Hand History for Game 756848335 *****
MHL888 has left the table.
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:36:04 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $68.10)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $64.40)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $31.95)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $69.45)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $59.55)
IAMCORNHOLIO posts small blind (0.50)
mebigchump posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Ac, Ah ]
uglyman666 calls (1)
Lucy82 calls (1)
Spassky72 raises (4) to 4
IAMCORNHOLIO calls (3.50)
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 calls (3)
Lucy82 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, Jh, 7c ]
IAMCORNHOLIO checks.
uglyman666 bets (10)
Spassky72 raises (60.40) to 60.40
Spassky72 is all-In.
IAMCORNHOLIO calls (27.95)
IAMCORNHOLIO is all-In.
uglyman666 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Tc ]
Creating Main Pot with $77.90 with IAMCORNHOLIO
Creating Side Pot 1 with $32.45 with Spassky72
** Summary **
Main Pot: $77.90 | Side Pot 1: $32.45 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 9d Jh 7c 3h Tc ]
Lucy82 balance $67.10, lost $1 (folded)
jamesy32 balance $50, sits out
Spassky72 balance $110.35, bet $64.40, collected $110.35, net +$45.95 [ Ac Ah ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ah,Jh,Tc,9d ]
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $0, lost $31.95 [ As Jc ] [ a pair of jacks -- As,Jc,Jh,Tc,9d ]
mebigchump balance $68.45, lost $1 (folded)
uglyman666 balance $45.55, lost $14 (folded)
***** Hand History for Game 756848764 *****
uglyman666: again
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:36:56 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $67.10)
Seat 2: jamesy32 ( $50)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $110.35)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $0)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $68.45)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $45.55)
uglyman666 posts small blind (0.50)
Lucy82 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Jh, 4h ]
uglyman666: thats cheating
uglyman666: :-)
Lucy82: Nice one
Spassky72 folds.
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $1.50 | Rake: $0
Lucy82 balance $67.60, bet $1, collected $1.50, net +$0.50
jamesy32 balance $50, sits out
Spassky72 balance $110.35, didn't bet (folded)
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $0, sits out
mebigchump balance $68.45, didn't bet (folded)
uglyman666 balance $45.05, lost $0.50 (folded)
y72 balance $76.85, didn't bet (folded)
***** Hand History for Game 756848959 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:37:19 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $67.60)
Seat 2: jamesy32 ( $50)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $110.35)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $68.45)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $45.05)
Lucy82 posts small blind (0.50)
jamesy32 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Ac, Ad ]
Spassky72 raises (4) to 4
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 folds.
Lucy82 folds.
jamesy32 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $5.50 | Rake: $0
Lucy82 balance $67.10, lost $0.50 (folded)
jamesy32 balance $49, lost $1 (folded)
Spassky72 balance $111.85, bet $4, collected $5.50, net +$1.50 [ Ac Ad ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ad ]
mebigchump balance $68.45, didn't bet (folded)
uglyman666 balance $45.05, didn't bet (folded)
I believe the odd of this happening are roughly... 1 in 2,698,4685
I'm going out to buy a loterry ticket.:D
***** Hand History for Game 756847599 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:34:35 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $68.10)
Seat 2: MHL888 ( $143.50)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $47.55)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $32.95)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $66.65)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $78.85)
MHL888 posts small blind (0.50)
Spassky72 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Ah, As ]
IAMCORNHOLIO folds.
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 raises (2) to 2
Lucy82 folds.
MHL888 folds.
Spassky72 calls (1)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4d, 5h, 9d ]
Spassky72 checks.
uglyman666 bets (4.30)
Spassky72 calls (4.30)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
Spassky72 checks.
uglyman666 bets (8)
Spassky72 calls (8)
** Dealing River ** : [ 6h ]
Spassky72 checks.
uglyman666 bets (5)
Spassky72 calls (5)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $37.15 | Rake: $1.95
Board: [ 4d 5h 9d 2d 6h ]
Lucy82 balance $68.10, didn't bet (folded)
MHL888 balance $143, lost $0.50 (folded)
Spassky72 balance $65.40, bet $19.30, collected $37.15, net +$17.85 [ Ah As ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,As,9d,6h,5h ]
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $32.95, didn't bet (folded)
mebigchump balance $66.65, didn't bet (folded)
uglyman666 balance $59.55, lost $19.30 [ Th Td ] [ a pair of tens -- Th,Td,9d,6h,5h ]
***** Hand History for Game 756847965 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:35:19 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $68.10)
Seat 2: MHL888 ( $143)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $65.40)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $32.95)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $66.65)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $59.55)
Spassky72 posts small blind (0.50)
IAMCORNHOLIO posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Jc, Ks ]
uglyman666: nh
mebigchump calls (1)
mebigchump: that was ugly man
uglyman666 folds.
Lucy82 folds.
MHL888 calls (1)
Spassky72 calls (0.50)
IAMCORNHOLIO checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, Qs, 2h ]
uglyman666: happens
Spassky72 checks.
IAMCORNHOLIO checks.
mebigchump bets (4)
MHL888 folds.
Spassky72 folds.
IAMCORNHOLIO folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $7.80 | Rake: $0.20
Board: [ 8c Qs 2h ]
Lucy82 balance $68.10, didn't bet (folded)
MHL888 balance $142, lost $1 (folded)
Spassky72 balance $64.40, lost $1 (folded)
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $31.95, lost $1 (folded)
mebigchump balance $69.45, bet $5, collected $7.80, net +$2.80
uglyman666 balance $59.55, didn't bet (folded)
***** Hand History for Game 756848335 *****
MHL888 has left the table.
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:36:04 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $68.10)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $64.40)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $31.95)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $69.45)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $59.55)
IAMCORNHOLIO posts small blind (0.50)
mebigchump posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Ac, Ah ]
uglyman666 calls (1)
Lucy82 calls (1)
Spassky72 raises (4) to 4
IAMCORNHOLIO calls (3.50)
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 calls (3)
Lucy82 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, Jh, 7c ]
IAMCORNHOLIO checks.
uglyman666 bets (10)
Spassky72 raises (60.40) to 60.40
Spassky72 is all-In.
IAMCORNHOLIO calls (27.95)
IAMCORNHOLIO is all-In.
uglyman666 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Tc ]
Creating Main Pot with $77.90 with IAMCORNHOLIO
Creating Side Pot 1 with $32.45 with Spassky72
** Summary **
Main Pot: $77.90 | Side Pot 1: $32.45 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 9d Jh 7c 3h Tc ]
Lucy82 balance $67.10, lost $1 (folded)
jamesy32 balance $50, sits out
Spassky72 balance $110.35, bet $64.40, collected $110.35, net +$45.95 [ Ac Ah ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ah,Jh,Tc,9d ]
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $0, lost $31.95 [ As Jc ] [ a pair of jacks -- As,Jc,Jh,Tc,9d ]
mebigchump balance $68.45, lost $1 (folded)
uglyman666 balance $45.55, lost $14 (folded)
***** Hand History for Game 756848764 *****
uglyman666: again
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:36:56 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $67.10)
Seat 2: jamesy32 ( $50)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $110.35)
Seat 4: IAMCORNHOLIO ( $0)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $68.45)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $45.55)
uglyman666 posts small blind (0.50)
Lucy82 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Jh, 4h ]
uglyman666: thats cheating
uglyman666: :-)
Lucy82: Nice one
Spassky72 folds.
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $1.50 | Rake: $0
Lucy82 balance $67.60, bet $1, collected $1.50, net +$0.50
jamesy32 balance $50, sits out
Spassky72 balance $110.35, didn't bet (folded)
IAMCORNHOLIO balance $0, sits out
mebigchump balance $68.45, didn't bet (folded)
uglyman666 balance $45.05, lost $0.50 (folded)
y72 balance $76.85, didn't bet (folded)
***** Hand History for Game 756848959 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Fri Jul 16 08:37:19 EDT 2004
Table Table 14286 (6 max) (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Lucy82 ( $67.60)
Seat 2: jamesy32 ( $50)
Seat 3: Spassky72 ( $110.35)
Seat 5: mebigchump ( $68.45)
Seat 6: uglyman666 ( $45.05)
Lucy82 posts small blind (0.50)
jamesy32 posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spassky72 [ Ac, Ad ]
Spassky72 raises (4) to 4
mebigchump folds.
uglyman666 folds.
Lucy82 folds.
jamesy32 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $5.50 | Rake: $0
Lucy82 balance $67.10, lost $0.50 (folded)
jamesy32 balance $49, lost $1 (folded)
Spassky72 balance $111.85, bet $4, collected $5.50, net +$1.50 [ Ac Ad ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ad ]
mebigchump balance $68.45, didn't bet (folded)
uglyman666 balance $45.05, didn't bet (folded)
I believe the odd of this happening are roughly... 1 in 2,698,4685
I'm going out to buy a loterry ticket.:D
Comments
Odds of getting Pocket ACE's on first hand 4/52*3/51=0.45%=1 in 222
Odds of not getting Pocket ACE's on the second hand=100%-0.45%=99.55%=1 in 1.005
Odds of getting Pocket ACE's on third hand=0.45%=1 in 222
Odds of not getting Pocket ACE's on the fouth hand=99.55%=1 in 1.005
Odds of getting Pocket ACE's on the fifth hand=0.45%=1 in 222
So the odds of these specific 5 instances occuring are 1/222*1/1.005*1/222*1/1.005*1/222=1/11050732
So we have that the odds of getting pocket Aces in 3 out of 5 consecutive hands are 1 in 11,050,732.
Well, seeing as the odds of winning the 6/49 are only roughly 14,000,000 to 1 (see, highschool finite class taught me something), I would say you should sink your life savings into lottery tickets.
Hmmm, what would Sklansky say about this? He'd probably say that, like any good poker player, you shouldn't make the bet (i.e. buy the ticket) unless your pot odds are greater than the odds of making the hand (i.e. winning the lottery). So, in the case of the 6/49, you would need a potential lottery win of greater than $28M since the ticket costs you $2.
LOL, I can just picture Sklansky at a convenience store, lecturing someone about buying lottery tickets, using this reasoning.
Of course, the occurance of this event isn't *quite* that amazing. The fact that it has happened creates what I like to call "observer bias". There have been *lots* of sequences of 5 hands where you were not dealt AA 3 times, but you didn't really notice.
Here's another one (and observer bias applies). Once I was bealt Ah Ad exactly twice in a row. What's the probability of being dealt pocket Aces and then the identical pocet aces consecutively?
ScottyZ
1/(52*51/2)^2 = 1 in 1,758,276.
And not to nitpick but odds of Pocket aces would be 1 in 221 right?
#possible AA hands/ #starting hands = 6/1326 = 1/221
I've seen back to back Bullets, but can't remember if they were identical or not...