WSOP Satellite part 2

SirWatts

*********** # 265 **************
PokerStars Game #5012196127: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2006/05/21 - 21:47:07 (ET)
Table '24551914 15' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: BadBeat1 (19127 in chips)
Seat 2: CincysFinest (8280 in chips)
Seat 3: "Dumping"KGB (5855 in chips)
Seat 4: AR15girl (17441 in chips)
Seat 5: SirWatts (25270 in chips)
Seat 6: laxgod26 (2234 in chips)
Seat 7: jocjunior (12967 in chips)
Seat 8: dbrunson222 (12546 in chips)
Seat 9: ZbjaffeZ (7202 in chips)
antes 25
SirWatts: posts small blind 100
laxgod26: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [4s 3h]
jocjunior: calls 200
dbrunson222: folds
ZbjaffeZ: folds
BadBeat1: folds
CincysFinest: folds
"Dumping"KGB: folds
AR15girl: calls 200
SirWatts: calls 100
laxgod26: checks
*** FLOP *** [5c 6d Js]
SirWatts: checks
laxgod26: checks
jocjunior: bets 600
AR15girl: folds
SirWatts: calls 600
laxgod26: folds
*** TURN *** [5c 6d Js] [9s]
SirWatts: checks
jocjunior: checks
*** RIVER *** [5c 6d Js 9s] [2c]
SirWatts: bets 1400
jocjunior: raises 10742 to 12142 and is all-in
SirWatts: calls 10742

Oops cut off results, he has 22 and MHIG.

So I limp and flop an open-ender and check/call.  Bingo on the river, I'm a little worried about 78 but this guy had recently played a 25K pot all-in preflop with 77 vs an overpair for some reason so I knew he didn't exactly need to have the nuts to make this bet.

I have almost average chips for when the tournament ends now, if I don't do anything stupid I'm going to Vegas.  I just need to steal enough blinds to keep my stack.

*********** # 289 **************
PokerStars Game #5012339394: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2006/05/21 - 21:59:02 (ET)
Table '24551914 15' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: BadBeat1 (27270 in chips)
Seat 2: CincysFinest (6080 in chips)
Seat 3: "Dumping"KGB (4355 in chips)
Seat 4: sphynx (19646 in chips)
Seat 5: SirWatts (41162 in chips)
Seat 7: trsportsman (31725 in chips)
Seat 8: dbrunson222 (11271 in chips)
Seat 9: ZbjaffeZ (6752 in chips)
antes25
sphynx: posts small blind 200
SirWatts: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Ad Qd]
trsportsman: raises 800 to 1200
6 folds
SirWatts: folds
trsportsman collected 1200 from pot
trsportsman: doesn't show hand

I can't think of a single reason to play this hand.

*********** # 333 **************
PokerStars Game #5012770975: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/05/21 - 22:32:50 (ET)
Table '24551914 15' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: BadBeat1 (26895 in chips)
Seat 2: bucksy (13011 in chips)
Seat 3: "Dumping"KGB (17712 in chips)
Seat 4: sphynx (28944 in chips)
Seat 5: SirWatts (35987 in chips)
Seat 6: PeterPaaPan (43273 in chips)
Seat 7: trsportsman (17993 in chips)
Seat 8: The_Big_Bib (10419 in chips)
BadBeat1: posts the ante 50
ante 50
trsportsman: posts small blind 300
The_Big_Bib: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [7h 5h]
4 folds
SirWatts: raises 1200 to 1800
3 folds
SirWatts collected 1900 from pot
SirWatts: doesn't show hand

The plan is to just do this a lot.


*********** # 342 **************
PokerStars Game #5012844902: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/05/21 - 22:38:14 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (39987 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (13047 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (24523 in chips)
Seat 4: IAmDaTruth (8540 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (32310 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (17827 in chips)
Seat 7: MobMentality (14850 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (17836 in chips)
antes 50
acekingqq: posts small blind 300
IAmDaTruth: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts
4 folds
SirWatts: raises 1200 to 1800
2 folds
IAmDaTruth: raises 6690 to 8490 and is all-in
SirWatts: calls 6690
*** FLOP *** [6h 2d 9s]
*** TURN *** [6h 2d 9s] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [6h 2d 9s 2c] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
IAmDaTruth: shows [5c 7c] (a pair of Deuces)
SirWatts: shows (two pair, Tens and Deuces)
SirWatts collected 17680 from pot

I guess I probably should have folded here, but I thought he could have a pretty big range and losing this pot isn't too bad, I would still have enough chips to steal a blind or 2 and make it.  Now it's all but over.  I'm going to Vegas.

*********** # 381 **************
PokerStars Game #5013161141: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/05/21 - 23:02:18 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (51827 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (31244 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (5840 in chips)
Seat 4: EK921 (8995 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (24988 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (18760 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (9365 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (51722 in chips)
Seat 9: *$lim* (7916 in chips)
antes 50
*$lim*: posts small blind 400
SirWatts: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [8c 8h]
7 folds
*$lim*: raises 7066 to 7866 and is all-in
SirWatts: folds
*$lim* collected 2050 from pot
*$lim*: doesn't show hand

I can't actually call anything.

*********** # 396 **************
PokerStars Game #5013293446: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/05/21 - 23:12:15 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (48677 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (28094 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (26946 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (30543 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (17210 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (6615 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (52572 in chips)
antes 50
BEAVERTOOTH: posts small blind 400
starfire33: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Ts As]
SirWatts: raises 1600 to 2400
Fidoo: folds
acekingqq: folds
poolplayer80: folds
ShuMoney: folds
BEAVERTOOTH: raises 4165 to 6565 and is all-in
starfire33: folds
SirWatts: folds
BEAVERTOOTH collected 5950 from pot
BEAVERTOOTH: doesn't show hand

Meh, no point wasting chips, I want to keep my stack big enough to bully the table when the time comes. Only reason to call is so that people don't think I can just be pushed off my hand every time I raise (which I can be, because I obviously can't call any decent sized push even with AA at this point).

*********** # 400 **************
PokerStars Game #5013318366: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/05/21 - 23:14:10 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (44877 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (28244 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (27496 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (33493 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (17010 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (9965 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (49572 in chips)
antes 50
acekingqq: posts small blind 400
poolplayer80: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Ah Ad]
ShuMoney: folds
BEAVERTOOTH: folds
starfire33: folds
SirWatts: raises 2400 to 3200
Fidoo: folds
acekingqq: folds
poolplayer80: folds
SirWatts collected 2350 from pot
SirWatts: doesn't show hand

Stupid aces, I don't even want you now.

*********** # 412 **************
PokerStars Game #5013418937: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/05/21 - 23:22:05 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (46177 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (26794 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (29946 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (24141 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (33243 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (13260 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (6965 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (53322 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (37450 in chips)
antes 50
RxMr: posts small blind 400
SirWatts: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Ac Kh]
Fidoo: folds
acekingqq: raises 1600 to 2400
4 folds
starfire33: calls 2400
RxMr: folds
SirWatts: folds

Easy easy fold.

*********** # 424 **************
PokerStars Game #5013694770: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2006/05/21 - 23:45:22 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (44152 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (33619 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (25171 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (29116 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (33843 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (13460 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (11265 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (45697 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (34975 in chips)
antes 75
acekingqq: posts small blind 600
cometn2005: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [4h 5h]
poolplayer80: folds
ShuMoney: folds
BEAVERTOOTH: folds
starfire33: folds
RxMr: folds
SirWatts: raises 2400 to 3600
Fidoo: folds
acekingqq: folds
cometn2005: folds
SirWatts collected 3675 from pot
SirWatts: doesn't show hand

Cards are pretty irrelevant, just steal from the guys that have something to lose and can't risk playing pots with me.

*********** # 441 **************
PokerStars Game #5013809473: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2006/05/21 - 23:55:24 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (44152 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (38344 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (20641 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (29568 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (18785 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (13590 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (50497 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (31300 in chips)
antes 75
cometn2005: posts small blind 600
poolplayer80: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [2s 6d]
4 folds
SirWatts: raises 2400 to 3600
3 folds
SirWatts collected 3600 from pot
SirWatts: doesn't show hand


*********** # 474 **************
PokerStars Game #5014010874: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2006/05/22 - 00:13:53 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (47377 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (42694 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (45145 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (25007 in chips)
Seat 5: poolplayer80 (22368 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (16535 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (8865 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (52447 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (34525 in chips)
antes 75
SirWatts: posts small blind 800
Fidoo: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [As Ac]
acekingqq: folds
cometn2005: raises 3200 to 4800
poolplayer80: folds
ShuMoney: folds
BEAVERTOOTH: folds
starfire33: folds
RxMr: folds
SirWatts: raises 42502 to 47302 and is all-in
Fidoo: folds
cometn2005: folds
SirWatts collected 11875 from pot
SirWatts: shows [As Ac] (a pair of Aces)

I'm a donk, I'm probably supposed to fold this hand, but I knew he'd fold too.  Satellites are weird.

*********** # 497 **************
PokerStars Game #5014217053: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2006/05/22 - 00:34:11 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (66002 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (36769 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (42845 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (23882 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (24295 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (6015 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (50397 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (28917 in chips)
antes 75
starfire33: posts small blind 800
RxMr: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [5c Ad]
SirWatts: raises 2400 to 4000
5 folds
starfire33: calls 3200
RxMr: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jh 2c As]
starfire33: checks
SirWatts: checks
*** TURN *** [Jh 2c As] [9d]
starfire33: checks
SirWatts: checks
*** RIVER *** [Jh 2c As 9d] [Qc]
starfire33: checks
SirWatts: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
starfire33: shows [8s 8d] (a pair of Eights)
SirWatts: shows [5c Ad] (a pair of Aces)
SirWatts collected 10200 from pot

wtf why are you calling me?  Obviously I don't put any more chips in.

*********** # 499 **************
PokerStars Game #5014232996: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2006/05/22 - 00:35:50 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (73452 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (36619 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (42695 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (23732 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (24145 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (5865 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (46247 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (26367 in chips)
antes 75
SirWatts: posts small blind 800
Fidoo: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Qc 2d]
acekingqq: folds
cometn2005: folds
ShuMoney: folds
BEAVERTOOTH: folds
starfire33: folds
RxMr: folds
SirWatts: raises 2400 to 4000
Fidoo: raises 5600 to 9600
SirWatts: folds
Fidoo collected 8600 from pot
Fidoo: doesn't show hand

My plan is to get to 100K then open push every single hand, this set me back a bit.

*********** # 500 **************
PokerStars Game #5014241321: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2006/05/22 - 00:36:42 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (69377 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (41144 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (42620 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (23657 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (24070 in chips)
Seat 7: BEAVERTOOTH (5790 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (46172 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (26292 in chips)
ante 75
Fidoo: posts small blind 800
acekingqq: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [9h Td]
5 folds
SirWatts: raises 2400 to 4000
Fidoo: calls 3200
acekingqq: folds
*** FLOP *** [Th 7d 5h]
Fidoo: checks
SirWatts: checks
*** TURN *** [Th 7d 5h] [Qh]
Fidoo: bets 6400
SirWatts: folds
Fidoo collected 10200 from pot
Fidoo: doesn't show hand

Why are you playing pots with me?  I'm trying to get to 100K here so I can busto people.
The plan from here on is raise 100% of the pots I can be first in and fold 100% of the pots someone enters before me.

*********** # 512 **************
PokerStars Game #5014370215: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2006/05/22 - 00:50:50 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (74602 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (31019 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (55820 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (17932 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (27360 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (46897 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (25492 in chips)
ante 100
RxMr: posts small blind 1000
SirWatts: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Jd Jh]
Fidoo: folds
acekingqq: folds
cometn2005: raises 2000 to 4000
ShuMoney: folds
starfire33: folds
RxMr: folds
SirWatts: raises 62000 to 66000
cometn2005: folds
SirWatts collected 9700 from pot
SirWatts: doesn't show hand

BECAUSE I CAN.  I have enough chips that losing this pot is irrelevant.

*********** # 513 **************
PokerStars Game #5014379872: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2006/05/22 - 00:51:54 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (80202 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (30919 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (55720 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (13832 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (27260 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (46797 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (24392 in chips)
ante 100
SirWatts: posts small blind 1000
Fidoo: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Qd Kc]
5 folds
SirWatts: raises 78102 to 80102 and is all-in
Fidoo: folds
SirWatts collected 4700 from pot
SirWatts: doesn't show hand

I love this power.

*********** # 514 **************
PokerStars Game #5014388901: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2006/05/22 - 00:52:53 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (82802 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (28819 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (55620 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (13732 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (27160 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (46697 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (24292 in chips)
ante 100
Fidoo: posts small blind 1000
acekingqq: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [As 4c]
4 folds
SirWatts: raises 3000 to 5000
Fidoo: raises 23719 to 28719 and is all-in
acekingqq: folds
SirWatts: folds
Fidoo collected 12700 from pot
Fidoo: shows [Qh Qc] (a pair of Queens)

why are you playing a hand here?  I seriously considered spite calling.

So I steal 10 of the next 12 hands, then finally I busto comet to end it.

*********** # 527 **************
PokerStars Game #5014473618: Tournament #24551914, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2006/05/22 - 01:02:32 (ET)
Table '24551914 23' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SirWatts (97402 in chips)
Seat 2: Fidoo (32219 in chips)
Seat 3: acekingqq (52020 in chips)
Seat 4: cometn2005 (6432 in chips)
Seat 5: Sr Mike (62661 in chips)
Seat 6: ShuMoney (19860 in chips)
Seat 7: DirtyTowel (67592 in chips)
Seat 8: starfire33 (50497 in chips)
Seat 9: RxMr (20692 in chips)
SirWatts: posts the ante 100
Fidoo: posts the ante 100
acekingqq: posts the ante 100
cometn2005: posts the ante 100
Sr Mike: posts the ante 100
ShuMoney: posts the ante 100
DirtyTowel: posts the ante 100
starfire33: posts the ante 100
RxMr: posts the ante 100
SirWatts: posts small blind 1000
Fidoo: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts
acekingqq: folds
cometn2005: raises 4332 to 6332 and is all-in
Sr Mike: folds
ShuMoney: folds
DirtyTowel: calls 6332
starfire33: folds
RxMr: folds
SirWatts: calls 5332
Fidoo: calls 4332
*** FLOP *** [4s 5c 9s]
SirWatts: checks
Fidoo: checks
DirtyTowel: checks
*** TURN *** [4s 5c 9s] [7s]
SirWatts: checks
Fidoo: checks
DirtyTowel: checks
*** RIVER *** [4s 5c 9s 7s] [5d]
SirWatts: checks
Fidoo: checks
DirtyTowel: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SirWatts: shows (two pair, Tens and Fives)
Fidoo: mucks hand
cometn2005: shows [Ad Kh] (a pair of Fives)
DirtyTowel: mucks hand
SirWatts collected 26228 from pot

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!

g2

gg

/g2

Big E

Excellent job SirWatts.....question tho....I don't understand the comment on hand 474 when you had AA, how do you fold that and what do you mean by I probably should have folded? I can understand hands 289 and 412, although I probably play those hands as well....but my tournament history is not even close to yours, obviously because you make better decisions and I can be guilty of overplaying AK, AQ and similar hands without taking into consideration position, who else is in and who is still to act, etc.....but perhaps I'm missing something? Even with 9 remaining and 8 getting a seat how do you not re-raise like you did with the AA?

Nice summary by the way, I'd have played some hands differently and your comments made me think about things a bit differently....sometimes I have thought that the big MTT's become a crap shoot near the end...perhaps it's more that I'm playing them like a crap shoot by putting my tournament on the line with hands like AQs or AKo when I'm potentially in a coin flip situation and likely behind, I think I over value these types of hands.....time to re-evaluate!!!!!

westside8

Big E wrote:

Excellent job SirWatts.....question tho....I don't understand the comment on hand 474 when you had AA, how do you fold that and what do you mean by I probably should have folded? I can understand hands 289 and 412, although I probably play those hands as well....but my tournament history is not even close to yours, obviously because you make better decisions and I can be guilty of overplaying AK, AQ and similar hands without taking into consideration position, who else is in and who is still to act, etc.....but perhaps I'm missing something? Even with 9 remaining and 8 getting a seat how do you not re-raise like you did with the AA?

Because he is playing in a satellite and not in regular tournament, there is no difference between just making the money and getting first place, so essentially you aim just to survive long enough to get in. With Watts having 47K in chips and the raiser having 25K, if the raiser calls and suckout, Watts will be left with average stack at the table, therefore increasing his chances of being knocked out. If he is called, in the best case scenerio when his opponent holds AK, there is still a 9% chance approximately that the AK will somehow win the hand. When he says he should've folded, his mentality is that he doesn't want to put his chips at risk (even as a potential huge favourite) to jeopardize his chance at making the money

specialK

watts, i think i know the answer to this, but just to clarify, in hand 474 when you said you should have folded your aces if you chip positions were reversed, and you had the 25K against the 47K stack open raising do you it is incorrect to fold right? Also, earlier in the tournament when you have less of a chip advantage you can't dream of folding AA preflop right? Just out of curiosity, because i haven't really read the hole thread yet, was your line in the later stage of the tourney just to try to open as many pots as possible and pick up lots of blinds.

SirWatts

Yeah I guess playing the AA hand isn't too bad because he's going to fold almost every time.  The problem is if he calls with like KK say and hits on me I'm now in trouble, where as if I just fold there's almost no way I won't make it to the end.  Basically I just want to preserve my chips.  In the opposite situation where I only have 25K it's an easy push because I still need to accumulate some chips to be guaranteed of a seat.  I don't think pushing even on my stack there is that clearly wrong though. My strategy once i got over 40K was to still the blinds once a lap. Near the end of these people are correctly playing super-tight if they have enough chips to likely fold in so picking up the blinds is pretty easy as long as you steal from the right people (the ones that have something to lose).

SirWatts

Also when we got VERY close to the bubble (say 5 players or so) I basically raised every hand i could to try to build a chipstack big enough that I could afford to try to bust someone. If all the big stacks just sit around and are content to fold in then it can take a while to end since no one is challenging the shortstacks all-ins. So I just raised 2.5xBB every hand I could since at this point it'd be pretty dumb for anyone with chips to play a pot with me (even though I would fold any 2 if i got reraised by someone with enough chips to hurt me).

Big E

westside8 wrote:

Because he is playing in a satellite and not in regular tournament, there is no difference between just making the money and getting first place, so essentially you aim just to survive long enough to get in.  With Watts having 47K in chips and the raiser having 25K, if the raiser calls and suckout, Watts will be left with average stack at the table, therefore increasing his chances of being knocked out.  If he is called, in the best case scenario when his opponent holds AK, there is still a 9% chance approximately that the AK will somehow win the hand.  When he says he should've folded, his mentality is that he doesn't want to put his chips at risk (even as a potential huge favourite) to jeopardize his chance at making the money

I understand this, and to some degree I agree....stealing the blinds once a lap and folding to a re-raise is one thing, and I totally understand that strategy with SirWatts having that large a stack but with the blinds at 800/1600 a few laps around with people coming back at you and you can find yourself bleeding down to an average stack. With AA and a chance to potentially take the last person out and a 2-1 chip lead on them...even if you lose you're still average stack and can still threaten and steal from the small stacks...and using your own logic you're still threatening to the large stacks who are trying to limp into a ticket? I come over the top every time.......but I have never won a satellite, nor will I likely ever win something of this magnitude....I'm just trying to get my big fat head around the thinking. Any hand other then AA and I agree with you.

pkrfce9

Look at it this way, Big E:
If SW folds, he is 75% likely (a guess) to win a seat.
If SW pushes, 90% of the time the opponent folds and maybe he moves up to 77% likely to win a seat.
If SW pushes and the opponent calls,
  - 80% of the time he wins and he moves to maybe 85% chance of winning the seat.
  - But 20% of the time he moves waaaaaaaaaaay down to maybe 50% chance (again a guess)of winning the seat.

The push is still slightly +EV (in terms of winning the prize) but the variance is a killer. You are probably most likely to be successful against a medium stack with this move since they have far more to lose. Against a micro stack there isn't much risk but you are more likely to be called. I'm not sure if it makes sense to try this against a healthy stack. Perhaps if they've shown that they shy away from big confrontations at this stage. Certainly worth discussing. This is a great example of the Gap theory in action.

Looking back at the numbers, I think I have underestimated the likelihoods. That makes it even less +EV for the push I would expect.

Big E

I see your reasoning, it's an interesting discussion....I just wonder if I have the dicipline to not push those aces

I don't believe I do...if your estimation of the odds is reasonable, well then, I like the odds of pushing.

pkrfce9

I think the odds of winning if called is accurate and the odds of being called is close to accurated, depending highly on how much of their stack the opponent has already committed.

What I'm not sure is the odds of winning a seat given the current stack size. It is quite possible, the odds of winning a seat if he folds is 90%. So I guess the question is why risk taking that down to say 50 to 60% when you could only raise this to say 92% by pushing.

I doubt I have the discipline to fold here, either. Although, if I had the experience of blowing a couple of situations of this type, I think I'd develop the discipline pretty quickly.

SirWatts

I forget exactly how many people were left but at 800/1600 we were close to the end. I'd say my chances of winning the seat if I fold are at least 95%.

pkrfce9

And your odds of winning a seat if you push and get beat? 50-60%?

SirWatts

Probably close to 60% I would guess.

Big E

makes a lot of sense, nicely done!


and good luck when you get there!!!