Hand Analysis: 2 pair v. Flushed flop

ElElliottElElliott
in Brags, Beats & Variance
Live freezeout tourney - 5 or 6 players left, top 3 spots pay.

UTG players is new to this weekly game, don't know much about him, but haven't seen anything out of the ordinary at this point. Seems solid, not too passive, not too agressive. Defends his blinds.

Blinds are 50/100, I have a little over 2,200 chips. I'm in the BB.

UTG calls
SB calls

I have  :3h :5h

I check

Flop comes  :3s :5s :7s

I bet 375

UTG goes all-in for 1200 more (total 1575 +300 in the pot), SB folds.

I???

Comments

  • DrTyoreDrTyore
    Fold..

    You're beat by a set, by a flush, and your bottom two pair could get negated

    Mark
  • specialKspecialK
    tough one,maybe the guy has As7.... i don't know, i doubt that the guy would insta push with the flush here... could have a set... you odn't really have to call, you can fold if you give the guy credit for 2 pair higher or a set, it would be read dependent for me...
  • BigChrisElBigChrisEl
    I know how the hand played out and how the game ended overall, but you had to fold.

    The player was very aggressive and could have been sitting on a  :6s  :7h or an  :as :2d, so even through could have been ahead it could have been a real race, plus combined with the fact that you could out play him it is better for you to fold now and get your chips in the middle when you are a sure favourite.

    Also since he was a new player he didn't know how you play and your fold here ended up you setting him up for a play later.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Hard to say. Depends on the player but you haven't been able to put him in a box yet. So give him credit for something at least.

    Seeing as it wasnt' raised preflop, you could be severely behind a lot of garbage hands or even some pretty good ones. I think I'd have to fold here. Try running this against a few potential hands and see how much ahead you might be. I'm guessing your hand isn't as strong as I would think it is at first guess.

    Mitigate this next time by putting in a smaller bet on the flop. Half the pot should do it. Much easier to get away from. On second thought, why am I giving you advice? I am arming my opposition for next week. D'ooooooooh. On second thought, raise in early position with QJo...
  • ElElliottElElliott
    Thanks everyone for the feedback. Much appreciated.
    pkrfce9 wrote:
    Mitigate this next time by putting in a smaller bet on the flop. Half the pot should do it. Much easier to get away from.

    Yeah - I think that was my biggest mistake and why it made it a tough decision for me, but I did fold.

    Afterwards he said he didn't have the flush - which I'm not sure I believe. I still ended up busting him out later :D
    pkrfce9 wrote:
    On second thought, why am I giving you advice? I am arming my opposition for next week. D'ooooooooh. On second thought, raise in early position with QJo...

    You've taught me well. Now I only play monsters when I'm in hands with you. Remember that....ONLY MONSTERS (you have been warned).
  • STR82ACESTR82ACE
    I remember that hand as well. I think I would have had to fold it as well. Not sure if I believed him when he said he had the flush though. New players are difficult to judge sometimes, but he was playing alot of hands all night, and when he did showdown, he usually had the cards he needed.

    Oh, and btw, both of you, when I raise and reraise, it's because I'm trying to push you all out of the pot by faking strength when I have garbage.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    I ran some numbers....

    Bearing in mind he limped UTG, I give him credit for at least some kind of reasonable holding pre-flop. Unless you tell me he'd limp in from EP with garbage. So let's say he's got a PP up to 88, some kind of suited Ace, maybe a higher suited K, or reasonable ace or king, jq, jt and the like.

    With those kind of hands, you are still around 70% to win. If you can elimate some of the more unlikely hands, he ends up closer to 50%. Put him on one of 33,55,77 or As{3|5|7}x and he zooms to almost 70%. It all depends on the hand you can put him on.
  • ChrisWinsorChrisWinsor
    Situations like that i always assume my opponent is on a draw, if this is the case im ahead in the percentages and will stick my money in. If he has the straight or flush you still have out for the full house. You also had some chips left to play with if you lost.
  • MeistroMeistro
    Check raise that flop or check / call and get it all in on a blank turn. As played, call quick and say "NO MORE SPADES DEALER"
  • Dave ScharfDave Scharf
    ON the flop you face a call of 1200 into a pot of 2250. If he has a set, flush, or straight you are not getting the odds for the call. A straight seems doubtful, though.

    It does not appear to me, from your description, that UTG is bluffing. He thinks he has it the best and he wants to either push you out or get you to call. Let's give him credit for top pair (a hand like A7) an overpair (like 88) or a flush. With the first two options, let's give him a spade draw. If that's the case you are beat or you are marginally ahead -- a little bit of "small favourite, big dog" but not THAT bad.

    You will have lots of chips left (relatively speaking). I favour folding. Tough laydown, though and I can't fault calling.

    Now to peek...
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