Tournament hand Analysis -QQ
I'm playing in a live deepstack tournament and have been playing fairly wrecklessly but have also shown down a few good hands. I'm mixing up my play a tonne as the blinds and the stack allow for quite a bit of play. I'm finding that players are playing back at me quite a bit as I really could have anything. I had just raised from UTG+1 with KQ and taken the pot down after I turned top two pair, I showed my hand just for funzies and to let my opponents know that I wasn't completely full of crap all the time.
Next hand I see QQ utg. Blinds are 200/400, I make it 1600 total. Folded around to the BB who promptly re-raises me another 1200 (min raise). Now, I know this guy has a hand here. He had re-raised me earlier after he thought I was stealing and eventually doubled up off me when my 1010 was no good against his K7. I didn't believe he would try this again and the min raise made me think.
The other thing that I needed to consider was the fact that if I do re-raise all in here i'm almost positive he will call, he rarely lays down big hands preflop and I'm putting him on AA, KK or AK. I don't feel as though I need to race at this stage of the tournament.
Stack sizes in parenthesis:
stpboy (13000) QQ
villain (17000) ??
Flop 10 10 4
villain checks
stpboy bets 1600
villain re-raises to 4000
stpboy ???
What's my move here? I small bet the flop trying to see where I was although in all honesty I figured I was good at this point. When he check-raised me I was dumbfounded. For what it's worth we're nowhere near the money and I was playing to win it.
stp
Next hand I see QQ utg. Blinds are 200/400, I make it 1600 total. Folded around to the BB who promptly re-raises me another 1200 (min raise). Now, I know this guy has a hand here. He had re-raised me earlier after he thought I was stealing and eventually doubled up off me when my 1010 was no good against his K7. I didn't believe he would try this again and the min raise made me think.
The other thing that I needed to consider was the fact that if I do re-raise all in here i'm almost positive he will call, he rarely lays down big hands preflop and I'm putting him on AA, KK or AK. I don't feel as though I need to race at this stage of the tournament.
Stack sizes in parenthesis:
stpboy (13000) QQ
villain (17000) ??
Flop 10 10 4
villain checks
stpboy bets 1600
villain re-raises to 4000
stpboy ???
What's my move here? I small bet the flop trying to see where I was although in all honesty I figured I was good at this point. When he check-raised me I was dumbfounded. For what it's worth we're nowhere near the money and I was playing to win it.
stp
Comments
Chances of being dealt AK pre-flop is 1.2% and AA or KK is 0.9%, which means there's 4-3 odds, or 57% that he has AK.
So, pretty much a coin-flip at this point and the final piece of the puzzle you need to ask yourself is if he's capable of making that play with AK. Is he making a play at you (or possible even think his AK is the best hand)
You mentioned that you didn't feel you needed to race at this stage of the tournament and, with the hands you've put him on, it works out to be a virtual race.
I'm also confused by your statement, "I figured I was good at this point" post-flop. Based on your pre-flop read, you're beat here half the time.
I don’t think he’d make a min raise w/ JJ or AK, as they’re hands you don’t want action.
The problem is, if you put him on AA or KK, you shouldn’t bet (check for a free card). He won’t fold on a 10 10 4 flop.
Just for clarification
stpboy (13000) QQ
villain (17000) ??
Flop 10 10 4
villain checks
stpboy bets 1600
villain re-raises to 4000
stpboy calls
Turn 2
Villain checks
stpboy ???????
You've already comitted about 1/2 your stack to this hand. Since you are playing to win, push it all in. A flod here get u real close to short stacked status.
Hobbes
villain (17000) ??
Flop 10 10 4
villain checks >>>>>>I felt I was good here because he checked
stpboy bets 1600
villain re-raises to 4000
stpboy calls
Turn 2
Villain checks
stpboy checks >>>> I really didn't want to walk into another CR and was really confused by his check here.
River A
Villain checks
stpboy ? ? ? ?
He's either got JJ or KK. Go all in to find out.
PLUS, you get to see what he re-raised you with - good or bad!
He is clearly representing a big hand - but your call on the flop should tell him that you too have a big hand.
I think he made an error not betting the turn if he indeed does have AA or KK. If you had the 10 on the flop you would likely be re-raising his bump to 4000m, all-in. SO if he does indeed have AA or KK he should be still betting for value on the turn (For the donks who cant lay down QQ:))
However, if he is playing a strong A the turn has brought him nothing and he must figure you for a good hand too (like QQ) or any pockets - where he is now a huge underdog.
That turn check is just really hard to figure out. But if you are in his shoes - when the board pairs 10-10 - it is hard to place another 10 in the guys hand - and a strong A is still a good hand - but not when you call for 4000 - I think at this point he knows he is not taking you off your hand - so he has chose not to continue a bluff - if he had the hand he should have trying add money to the pot with a bet.
I think you are good
But the river brought the Ace.
Check here - he may have JJ or 99 and you are leaving money on the table but he is also now likely to have you beat.
stp
Uh-oh. You have busted them out of their complacent little poker lives. That's bad. Shift gear and tighten up. Always try and be playing opposite to how you are perceived.
I now ring an alarm bell in my heads ANYTIME there is a re-raise. Is it a re-steal or is it a legit hand? In this case, it's legit. There are not too many possibilities. I can't put down QQ yet. I call.
Fold. You answered your own question .. "I small bet trying to see where I was." He is telling you that you are behind. I believe him.
I check the turn. Someone is WAY ahead. He has six outs (AK) or two outs (pair lower than QQ) or you have two outs AA or KK. TT seems unlikely since I can't fathom that he c/r with TT on the flop.
On the river, I check again. What can he have that will call? JJ or 88? He could well have AK and fear a ten is trapping him.
stp