$3-$6 ginormous pot
OK, being as there seemed to be aggreement that the last hand was pretty good, wondering what you guys think of this one... 
My first hand of the table (posted). Zero reads.
***** Hand History for Game 3941318984 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Monday, April 10, 19:55:37 ET 2006
Table High Hand Jackpot #1232871 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: husser1212 ( $163.75 )
Seat 3: TACOWILLY ( $125.67 )
Seat 4: jmcg1 ( $140 )
Seat 5: gman4mil ( $125 )
Seat 6: WILEY2COYOTE ( $119 )
Seat 7: SteveMCSD ( $121 )
Seat 8: JozefTaska ( $183 )
Seat 9: mredw ( $75 )
Seat 10: Sations ( $137.25 )
Seat 1: ScoobD ( $300 )
jmcg1 posts small blind [$1].
gman4mil posts big blind [$3].
ScoobD posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [ 9c 7c ]
WILEY2COYOTE folds.
SteveMCSD folds.
JozefTaska folds.
mredw calls [$3].
Sations calls [$3].
ScoobD checks.
husser1212 raises [$6].
TACOWILLY folds.
jmcg1 calls [$5].
gman4mil calls [$3].
mredw raises [$6].
Sations calls [$6].
ScoobD calls [$6].
husser1212 raises [$6].
jmcg1 calls [$6].
gman4mil calls [$6].
mredw calls [$3].
Sations calls [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 3d, Jh ]
jmcg1 checks.
gman4mil checks.
mredw bets [$3].
Sations calls [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
husser1212 raises [$6].
jmcg1 folds.
gman4mil folds.
mredw raises [$6].
Sations folds.
ScoobD calls [$6].
husser1212 raises [$6].
mredw calls [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ]
mredw bets [$6].
ScoobD calls [$6].
husser1212 raises [$12].
mredw raises [$12].
ScoobD folds.
husser1212 raises [$12].
mredw calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
mredw checks.
ScoobD: donkeys
husser1212 bets [$6].
mredw calls [$6].
Where do you guys bail on this? Or do you pay it off since the pot is astronomically large?
My first hand of the table (posted). Zero reads.
***** Hand History for Game 3941318984 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Monday, April 10, 19:55:37 ET 2006
Table High Hand Jackpot #1232871 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: husser1212 ( $163.75 )
Seat 3: TACOWILLY ( $125.67 )
Seat 4: jmcg1 ( $140 )
Seat 5: gman4mil ( $125 )
Seat 6: WILEY2COYOTE ( $119 )
Seat 7: SteveMCSD ( $121 )
Seat 8: JozefTaska ( $183 )
Seat 9: mredw ( $75 )
Seat 10: Sations ( $137.25 )
Seat 1: ScoobD ( $300 )
jmcg1 posts small blind [$1].
gman4mil posts big blind [$3].
ScoobD posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [ 9c 7c ]
WILEY2COYOTE folds.
SteveMCSD folds.
JozefTaska folds.
mredw calls [$3].
Sations calls [$3].
ScoobD checks.
husser1212 raises [$6].
TACOWILLY folds.
jmcg1 calls [$5].
gman4mil calls [$3].
mredw raises [$6].
Sations calls [$6].
ScoobD calls [$6].
husser1212 raises [$6].
jmcg1 calls [$6].
gman4mil calls [$6].
mredw calls [$3].
Sations calls [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 3d, Jh ]
jmcg1 checks.
gman4mil checks.
mredw bets [$3].
Sations calls [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
husser1212 raises [$6].
jmcg1 folds.
gman4mil folds.
mredw raises [$6].
Sations folds.
ScoobD calls [$6].
husser1212 raises [$6].
mredw calls [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ]
mredw bets [$6].
ScoobD calls [$6].
husser1212 raises [$12].
mredw raises [$12].
ScoobD folds.
husser1212 raises [$12].
mredw calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
mredw checks.
ScoobD: donkeys
husser1212 bets [$6].
mredw calls [$6].
Where do you guys bail on this? Or do you pay it off since the pot is astronomically large?
Comments
Right about here...
Italics are my fold, and the bold is my reason.
Lets see we are sandwitched between an UTG limp-reraiser and the original raiser and now need to call two bets cold (and possibly one more) just to see a flop with this hand.
If you decide to see a flop, then i call the first bet and fold when faced with the two bets coming back, with 97s you're not looking at flopping bottom pair. you're looking for two pair, a flush, a straight or a solid well hidden draw to the last two.
I pat myself on the back for folding pf when I see that I flopped middle pair and remained caught between two raisers. Â Either of those 2 guys with an overpair and I'm way way behind.
I believe it is Lee Jones book who explains how to play JJ pf when it is 2 bets cold back to you - he says - fold.
And if I had 87s instead of 97s you cap I assume (from all I've heard thus far).
Well yea... but we're not talknig about a premium hand here like 78s...
And I"m thinking my reputation has been blown WAY outta proportion.. I have folded that hand....
At least twice.
Mark
I'm getting 13:2 or 6.5:1 coming back to me. Assuming everyone calls behind I'm getting 16:2 or 8:1. If it's capped behind I'm getting 21:3 or 7:1. So based simply on position you're dumping this ignoring the ridiculous price you're getting? And as far as the limp raise, is the guy really limp raising a monster in MP? It's easy to say fold preflop, but I don't think it's THAT cut and dried. Probably the worst part about the hand is the fact I have no reads though.
you will flop trips 1.4% of the time (that's 1 out of 74 flops)
your chance of flopping a flush is .8% (you will flop a flush once out
of 119 flops)
flopping a straight (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 0.980%
8:1 worth it?
I guess not. I guess I felt the play post flop would be fairly easy, but unfortunately I didn't exactly get what I wanted on the flop, and the pot size made it pretty much impossible to fold knowing that more than likely I have live outs.
I'm aware. But given the fact I get to the flop I can't fold then.
Suppose you hold the same hand in the BB, UTG raises, followed by 2 cold calls. Do you call one bet in the BB getting 7:1 (let's assume the SB was one of the cold callers so we don't half to worry about the 0.5 SB there)? I assume everyone here would (maybe I'm wrong) in that scenario.Â
The major differences I can see between the 2 examples are relative position which is good in the example above and not so good in the other example. So, how do you guys factor in the price of position (or relative position as the case may be), since the pot odds you're getting are the same?
Thoughts?
With no read, can you trust mredw is only betting overcards? Â Not likely, considering he is betting into a reraiser. Â His betting pattern of call, reraise pf and bet on the flop screams slow played AA to me.
You are caught between 2 preflop raisers. Â You should expect husser to continue raising, trapping you for more bets.
Even considering you made middle pair, it is even more of a fold on the flop. Â
The major difference is that it is one sb to call, with no possibility of having to pay more to see the flop. In your hand it was 2 sb to call, with the possibility of more bets to see the flop. Even if the pot odds at the time are the same, you have to consider who can act behind you.
OK, but given I'm getting 24:1 on a single bet, if I know specifically that it will be capped again, then sure, I'm only getting 32:4 or 8:1. How many outs do I have? 5 at most (ignoring BD straight draws), however I think it is highly likely that all 5 are good (vs. 2 overpairs). Your point on the counterfeiting if the board pairs is a very good one though, since it does discount my outs. So what are my "effective outs"? 3-4 maybe? And if I'm up against a set, I'm screwed.
The pot odds at WORST (capped) were 7:1 (assuming everyone else is calling which seems automatic). It doesn't matter if I'm paying 1 sb or 3 sb. 7:1 is 7:1 right?
Looking back more and more, I think the key point probably (besides the lack of reads), is that having good relative position can usually give you a much clearer idea of what the odds you're really going to be getting on each street (since you're apt to close the action), whereas when you're stuck in a shitty spot like this you don't know what the exact "price" is going to be.
And no, I don't typically take middle pair to war between 2 preflop raisers, but I thought the pot size dictated I had to go further with this hand since I felt I had the odds to justify it. In hindsight, I probably didn't know what the exact price I was getting was, and I didn't know exactly how many outs my hand was worth.
And FWIW, you guys don't want to know the results either, because results shouldn't matter...(and no this wasn't supposed to be a bad beat post either, just thought I'd try to get some sort of discussion going with my donkey-like play).
It does because you are ignoring what I was saying about the ratio of your pf calls to the big bets you can win on the later streets. Limping for 1 small bet gets paid off in big bets on the later streets when you hit. This is what justifies your calls. If you are stuck in a capped pf bet, you correspondingly need to be able to win more BB's on the later streets to justify that call.Â
As you can see from my earlier post the odds of flopping your monster are very low, far too low to get true odds to call pf. It is the later street betting that gives you your odds.
Add to that, the fact that no matter how bad the players are, a raise is indicating that you are up relatively stronger cards, as does the subsequent cold calling. If the cold callers are players I respect, I watch them far more carefully than the original raiser.
And FWIW,
husser1212 shows [ Kd, Qc ] high card king.
mredw shows [ 4c, 4d ] a pair of fours.
mredw wins $173.50 from the main pot with a pair of fours.
Ever consider calling down (because your draw is legit given pot odds) and then calling the river bet to show the table you are 'crazy'?
<Zips up asbestos suit again>
Mark