Should I have laid this down?

mcksmith

Being 99% positive based on his past play that he was on a flush draw when he raised the flop, should I have laid this down?
Although I'm up at NL ring games I've been getting my ass handed to me in SnGs. The difference is in plays like this where in a cash game I would lay it down but in a SnG I figure I'm better than 50% to win (75% when the turn's a blank) and if he misses his draw I'll double up and bust him out. Am I taking the wrong approach to SnGs? (In hindsight, I should've raised pre-flop but he'd call 2x - 3x with a suited jack anyway.)

PokerStars Game #4456370229: Tournament #22167106, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/03/29 - 18:55:28 (ET)
Table '22167106 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: Crativius (1845 in chips)
Seat 3: mcksmith (1945 in chips)
Seat 4: WOODMAN3478 (4555 in chips)
Seat 6: scottwf (3135 in chips)
Seat 7: pokherqueen (1435 in chips)
Seat 9: Candelj1 (585 in chips)
Candelj1: posts small blind 50
Crativius: posts big blind 100

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mcksmith [Kc Jd]
mcksmith: calls 100
WOODMAN3478: folds
scottwf: folds
pokherqueen: folds
Candelj1: folds
Crativius: checks

*** FLOP *** [2d 4s Ks]
Crativius: checks
mcksmith: bets 200
Crativius: raises 500 to 700
mcksmith: calls 500

*** TURN *** [2d 4s Ks] [6d]
Crativius: bets 1045 and is all-in
mcksmith: calls 1045

*** RIVER *** [2d 4s Ks 6d] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Crativius: shows [Js 2s] (a flush, Ace high)
mcksmith: shows [Kc Jd] (a pair of Kings)

Soup

I wouldnt call with KJ UTG to start. But if your so sure he is on the flush draw, why wouldnt you push the flop?

specialK

Soup wrote:

I wouldnt call with KJ UTG to start. But if your so sure he is on the flush draw, why wouldnt you push the flop?

i agree with the preflop analysis... if you were short (ie 10BB or less) you could push, but at this point, with your chips you can easily just throw this away. i don't think pushing on the flop is your best option because he's basically priced in now because there's already 1600+ in the pot (if i'm correct?) even so, he's about even money to win the pot by showdown and he's getting better than 2.5 - 1 on his money now. (you can't really know, but i think you have to give this guy credit for 12 outs which is approx 49% to win at showdown. my reasoning here is that you can give credit for nut flush draw, and the A adds three outs to his draw) what i'm basically saying is that you prolly wanna wait for the turn if it's a brick push if it's not then fold. (just cause with only one card to come his draw is only about 25% to win at showdown and still only getting 2.5 - 1 on his money) but he shoves on you... you called, went in ahead, nothing more can be said. don't worry though sklansky loves you. (cause that makes everything better lol)

oh yeah, to answer the original question... either fold preflop (probably your best bet), or fold to the reraise on the flop give him credit for two pair or K better kicker(but if you are 99% sure he's on the flush draw you played it right)

gokorda

shouldn't have even seen the flop, IMO

Soup

I think the call of the reraise is too weak, fold if you think he is good, push if you believe he is on a flush draw. And I don't see any reason why you put him on the ace for 3 more outs.

SirWatts

Why would you ever fold when you're pretty sure you have the best hand? And why would you fold in a cash game and not in a SnG, that's so backwards. You played the hand perfectly postflop (peronally I would raise preflop at a shorthanded table) and got unlucky, oh well. Good thing new SnGs start every couple seconds.

Soup

SirWatts wrote:

Why would you ever fold when you're pretty sure you have the best hand?  And why would you fold in a cash game and not in a SnG, that's so backwards.  You played the hand perfectly postflop (peronally I would raise preflop at a shorthanded table) and got unlucky, oh well.  Good thing new SnGs start every couple seconds.

Yes if I was in the hand I would have raised UTG and not called.

mcksmith

Soup wrote:

I wouldnt call with KJ UTG to start. But if your so sure he is on the flush draw, why wouldnt you push the flop?

I wouldn't normally call either but the table had tightened up and I hadn't seen a flop for a couple orbits so I limped - although the consensus seems to be that it was a poor play. (Considering I busted out I'd have to agree)

Earlier he re-raised all-in on the flop with top pair no kicker and a four flush. Hit his flush on the river to take out TPTK so I just called on the flop so I'd still have a reasonable amount of chips left if he hit it on the turn. He was up and down a few times because he pushed all his flush draws which is why I was pretty confident he was on a flush draw.

SirWatts wrote:

And why would you fold in a cash game and not in a SnG, that's so backwards.

I agree. I hadn't thought about it until I posted it and then I thought it was dumb too but I'm up in cash games and down in SnGs so ... I dunno. Any time I can get 1:1 on my money when I'm a 2:1 favourite I should be taking it though. I have been playing too conservatively in cash games. Mostly small wins and small losses with a few big wins thrown in.

ChrisWinsor

If you thought he was on it at the flop, shoulda pushed. Turns out was 43% at the flop with his flush draw and pair. 25% at the turn. Unfortunate hand to lose with.

specialK

ChrisWinsor wrote:

If you thought he was on it at the flop, shoulda pushed. Turns out was 43% at the flop with his flush draw and pair. 25% at the turn. Unfortunate hand to lose with.

If you're sure the guy is on a flush draw why would you push your stack and give him 2.5 to 1 on the flop when he has the odds to call, when you could wait till the turn and give him 2.5 to 1 and not give him the odds to call? What i'm saying is you are screwed if a club comes on the turn but why not wait to see if it actually comes with a club, you're getting called on the flop by this hand.

Soup

dude if he is getting 2.5:1 he doesnt have the odds to call

ChrisWinsor

ermm doesn't he always want the guy to call if hes just on a flush draw... 25-30% in the long run that would make him a lot of money. Plus players wont awlays call... It was unfortunate that the guy had a pair, because it gave him alot more outs, enough to almost make it even money.

ComaU

If your gonna play this hand preflop with 7 left you should be raising coming in. That said you are in the worst spot to do this so I would muck. After the flop you played your hand perfect though since you got all his chips in on the turn where he needs to hit his flush. I have a funny feeling that you know post flop you played well and this is more of a "bad beat" post. This is a rough beat but take comfort in the fact over the long run you will kill this guy/girl (and others like them) in this spot.