$20+$2 MTT hand near the bubble.

Will_Son

This is a hand that's been bothering me for a couple of days now.

Some background information:
- $22 MTT on Party with 450+ entrants (I don't remember the exact number)
- Top 50 get paid but the pay structure was very top heavy ($2235 for first, a little over $100 for 10th, and 50th getting around $48).
- 56 players left with an average stack of 21-22k.
- The player to my left seems to be a solid player as he hasn't done anything out of line in the time I've been at his table, which has been for the majority of the tournament. He's been getting a big more aggressive with the bubble approaching.
- The player to his left is really passive. I'm sure he's trying to limp to the money.
- I have a pretty good image at my table (for those paying attention). I've been showing down strong hands and stealing once or twice every couple of orbits with very little resistance.

With that information, how would you play this?
I'll try to explain my reasoning for my actions after I get some responses.

Game No : 3830769603
***** Hand History for Game 3830769603 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:21426618 Level:9 Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50) - Monday, March 27, 03:37:50 ET 2006
Table Regular(643274) Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: Will_Son69 ( $18261 )
Seat 5: OlverCloseof ( $10318 )
Seat 4: guy4565 ( $28107 )
Seat 7: Blorguke ( $31639 )
Seat 9: russellmine ( $25625 )
Seat 8: orionpool3 ( $18028 )
Seat 10: zSlater88 ( $18201 )
Seat 1: Trymebizatch ( $25432 )
Seat 2: onlyTitleist ( $18046 )
Seat 6: conjenrick ( $18847 )
Trny:21426618 Level:9
Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50)
Trymebizatch posts ante [50].
onlyTitleist posts ante [50].
Will_Son69 posts ante [50].
guy4565 posts ante [50].
OlverCloseof posts ante [50].
conjenrick posts ante [50].
Blorguke posts ante [50].
orionpool3 posts ante [50].
russellmine posts ante [50].
zSlater88 posts ante [50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Will_Son69 [ Jc 8c ]
conjenrick folds.
Blorguke folds.
orionpool3 folds.
russellmine folds.
zSlater88 folds.
Trymebizatch folds.
onlyTitleist folds.
Will_Son69 raises [3600].
guy4565 calls [3000].
OlverCloseof folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4d, 8h ]
guy4565 bets [7844].
Will_Son69 is all-In [14611]
guy4565 calls [6767].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
guy4565 shows [ Jh, Kh ] a flush, king high.
Will_Son69 shows [ Jc, 8c ] a pair of eights.
guy4565 wins 38122 chips from the main pot with a flush, king high.
Player Will_Son69 finished in 56 place

beanie42

Half your remaining stack on middle pair weak kicker against solid player? Easy fold.

QueenNine

beanie42 wrote:

Easy fold.

The part Beanie forgot to say was...

Pre Flop!

So close to the money, J8 sooted gets tossed faster than.... (insert wittyness here)

Will_Son

The reason I made the play I did was because my first instinct when the SB called was that he was going to bet any flop. He was a good player from what I could tell and, when he called preflop, I thought he'd use the bubble and my tight image to buy the pot on the flop (maybe that's just because it's something I do sometimes).
When he lead out for a pot sized bet, which I thought was a little big, I began to think my hand was good. A few moments later, I decided to go with my initial thought and I pushed.
He was at the table for a hand earlier where I raised and folded in the same sort of situation.

Was I just overthinking the hand and giving too much credit to a player in a $22 MTT?

As for the preflop raise, I usually get a little more aggressive and start stealing a bit more as I near the bubble. The orbit before it was folded to me on the button and I folded, in an effort to convince them that I'm not going to just automatically raise their blinds with any two. I thought that set me up for a steal this orbit with any 2.

westside8

I don't mid the raise with J8 here when its folded around to you on the button. However, with him leading out on the flop for half ypur chips, you are not going to push him off his hand by raising here, and he will probably put you all in on the turn if you call here. With your read of villain being a passive player leading out, I would lean towards folding. You were just the button, and your stack is not quite at push or fold terroritory yet, so you can still have a few hands to try to steal before the blinds coming around again.

SirWatts

I like the raise preflop given your description of the BB, though you have to be concerned about the big stack small blind. However it seems unlikely he's going to put a big move on you givenyour description so I would still raise. I would fold the flop but I don't hate the push. The problem is you have almost no fold equity. Even though I agree this looks like a bluff, the size of the bet makes it clear that he's committed to the hand, so it's more a lot more likely he has something real then if he bet say half the pot. Also, your read says it's less likely he's bluffing and you are on the bubble so there is some value in surviving the hand. Idon't think it's an easy fold by any means, but in this case I think it's the best option. However you did get your money in in a good spot as it played out so don't kick yourself too hard.

T_Mac

Looks like you made a couple ballsy plays that gave u a better chance to win all the chips in the tourney. Better luck next time.

Will_Son

SirWatts wrote:

However it seems unlikely he's going to put a big move on you givenyour description so I would still raise. I would fold the flop but I don't hate the push. The problem is you have almost no fold equity.

That was actually one of the biggest issues I had with the hand. Having no fold equity. I really considered this before pushing. I knew I had zero fold equity (unless he was on a complete bluff with not even any overcards) but I decided to go with my read, however hasty it may have been, and thinking I had the best hand, I pushed.

Now, my second question would be.. knowing what my opponent had, what do you do?

I've been reading a lot of recent material from players like Erick Lindgren and they recommend pushing a lot of small edges during early tournament play. How does this relate to the bubble? I'm a small favorite against my opponent's hand but, knowing that I'm a favorite, do I get all my chips in or pass up the small edge and limp to the money, which would've been easy to do with my stack even after folding this hand? I was thinking the pay scale was so top heavy that it'd be worth it for me to take this risk on the bubble in an attempt to accumulate chips to have a better chance of winning the tournament. Was that incorrect thinking?

BigChrisEl

I don't mind how you played, the only trouble is you were going against some one who had you covered and even if he lost the pot he would still have 10 K and have a full go around the table before he see the Blinds again so with the flush draw out there he may have no fear if he is drawing on it. (I mean if I was in his spot and had the other person covered I would be thinking I'm in the money regardless of how this hand played out and if I catch I could get deeper).

Also you raise from the button could look like a steal and catching middle pair is with the Jack kicker is just not good enough to go all-in with so I think I would fold here and wait for another spot.

(But that’s just me. As my friends say; using Phil Helmuth's animal types; I’m Ostrich, one sign of trouble and I run and bury my head.)

SirWatts

Well if you knew your opponents hand your best bet would be to wait for a safe turn card and get all-in then, but yeah you shouldn't be folding here you got all-in as about a 60-40 favourite which is too big an edge to pass up (if you somehow know his hand) even on the bubble.

HP_John

SirWatts wrote:

Well if you knew your opponents hand your best bet would be to wait for a safe turn card and get all-in then, but yeah you shouldn't be folding here you got all-in as about a 60-40 favourite which is too big an edge to pass up (if you somehow know his hand) even on the bubble.

I believe his opponent had something along the lines of 48%, since he presumably had 12 outs (9 hearts, 3 kings).

SirWatts

Oops yeah it's 51.5-48.5, but with dead money out there you wouldn't want to fold getting 3:2 on a coinflip if you could see his cards.

Board: Th 8h 4d

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.5354 % 48.08% 00.45% { KhJh }
Hand 2: 51.4646 % 51.01% 00.45% { Jc8c }

wader

1) He's not going to fold after he has put over half his stack in.
2) If I could see his cards.....on the flop it's a race so at that point yes I would push.
3) Unless you had a huge read somehow, I think your pushing the edge a little to hard, if he has a 10 your in tough shape.

ChrisWinsor

Either fold it pre flop, or limp. You're at the buble you wanna play cautious and make the money. On the flop when he bet what he did, you really should have folded it. He was BB, coulda had the ten, the two pair or lots of other hands beating yours. Even if you gave him credit for the flush draw with the two over cards, he was a 48% chance at the flop to win the hand.... Next time, when you're that close to the buble and have nothing invested in the pot, fold the hand, or limp in. With that flop let it go.

Soup

ChrisWinsor wrote:

Either fold it pre flop, or limp. You're at the buble you wanna play cautious and make the money. On the flop when he bet what he did, you really should have folded it. He was BB, coulda had the ten, the two pair or lots of other hands beating yours. Even if you gave him credit for the flush draw with the two over cards, he was a 48% chance at the flop to win the hand.... Next time, when you're that close to the buble and have nothing invested in the pot, fold the hand, or limp in. With that flop let it go.

I think being near the bubble is even more of a reason to raise this. He isnt looking to play a hand post flop, he is hoping for a steal.

Big E

BigChrisEl wrote:

(But that’s just me. As my friends say; using Phil Helmuth's animal types; I’m Ostrich, one sign of trouble and I run and bury my head.)

That is a good one!

I like your reasoning and I don't think the pre-flop raise was a bad play...I think I'd fold this pre-flop but it's certainly an ok hand to try and steal. On that flop with the pot sized bet I fold...that close to the money I don't like to push unless I have a strong hand or if I have my opponent out chipped and figure it to be a race....I know the goal is to win not make the money and I can appreciate that line of thinking but I don't want a coin flip unless losing that coin flip does not eliminate me....if I'm at risk of going out I want a bigger piece of that flop.

gokorda

would have surely folded.. unless I"ve got the nuts I'm very cautious about an all in near the bubble

Dave Scharf

As usual, without peeking...

Some background information:
- $22 MTT on Party with 450+ entrants (I don't remember the exact number)
- Top 50 get paid but the pay structure was very top heavy ($2235 for first, a little over $100 for 10th, and 50th getting around $48).
- 56 players left with an average stack of 21-22k.
- The player to my left seems to be a solid player as he hasn't done anything out of line in the time I've been at his table, which has been for the majority of the tournament. He's been getting a big more aggressive with the bubble approaching.
- The player to his left is really passive. I'm sure he's trying to limp to the money.
- I have a pretty good image at my table (for those paying attention). I've been showing down strong hands and stealing once or twice every couple of orbits with very little resistance.

These are excellent introductory notes.

***** Hand History for Game 3830769603 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:21426618 Level:9 Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50) - Monday, March 27, 03:37:50 ET 2006
Table Regular(643274) Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: Will_Son69 ( $18261 )

At about 15 times the BB I am in "ABC mode" -- I am not going to get fancy since it will be almost impossible not to get over committed.

Seat 5: OlverCloseof ( $10318 )
Seat 4: guy4565 ( $28107 )
Seat 7: Blorguke ( $31639 )
Seat 9: russellmine ( $25625 )
Seat 8: orionpool3 ( $18028 )
Seat 10: zSlater88 ( $18201 )
Seat 1: Trymebizatch ( $25432 )
Seat 2: onlyTitleist ( $18046 )
Seat 6: conjenrick ( $18847 )
Trny:21426618 Level:9
Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50)
Trymebizatch posts ante [50].
onlyTitleist posts ante [50].
Will_Son69 posts ante [50].
guy4565 posts ante [50].
OlverCloseof posts ante [50].
conjenrick posts ante [50].
Blorguke posts ante [50].
orionpool3 posts ante [50].
russellmine posts ante [50].
zSlater88 posts ante [50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Will_Son69 [ Jc 8c ]
conjenrick folds.
Blorguke folds.
orionpool3 folds.
russellmine folds.
zSlater88 folds.
Trymebizatch folds.
onlyTitleist folds.
Will_Son69 raises [3600].
guy4565 calls [3000].
OlverCloseof folds.

I think your play here is perfectly legit.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4d, 8h ]
guy4565 bets [7844].

I muck.

He has called 3000 out of position. I think it is reasonable to assume that he has a hand of some kind. He has lots of chips so he has not shifted into desparation mode. This is not a short stack making a stop and go play, this is a "solid" player with a substantial stack who has called out of position.

What beats me? AA through to 88, 44, xT combos, and A-8, K-8, Q-8. Since he called 3000 out of position I think it's safe to discard some of these possibilities. I will give him AA to 22. He thinks you may have missed and he is betting out. You can beat 77 66 55 33 22 and you lose to AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 44. If he has a straight draw it will be about even money. On balance though, some of these are more likely than others JJ 99 look very likely to me (it would fit pre-flop with no re-raise).

On balance my feeling is, much. If I was a little shorter I might call, but I still have ammo.

Now to peak...

Dave Scharf

The reason I made the play I did was because my first instinct when the SB called was that he was going to bet any flop. He was a good player from what I could tell and, when he called preflop, I thought he'd use the bubble and my tight image to buy the pot on the flop (maybe that's just because it's something I do sometimes).

If this is right, then do not muck around with J-8. Against a substantial stack who will call and fire on any flop, do not enter the fray with a hand as weak as J-8 since you will almost certainly face tough decisions post-flop.

If you know what his cards were? Call his flop bet and then push on the turn if you are still ahead when your odds are better. Failingn that, get the chips in and cross your fingers.