bad beat
Found this story on rec.poker:
"Playing at Lake Charles La $20-40 Holdem Game this weekend I was at the table
where a player flopped quad Sevens and finished third in the hand. Flop was
7D7H6D Fourth street 8D. River 9D. One player had 10D other 5D. I must have
10,0000 hours at the poker table. Never seen this happen
oooouch
"Playing at Lake Charles La $20-40 Holdem Game this weekend I was at the table
where a player flopped quad Sevens and finished third in the hand. Flop was
7D7H6D Fourth street 8D. River 9D. One player had 10D other 5D. I must have
10,0000 hours at the poker table. Never seen this happen
oooouch
Comments
What is the probability of the quad 7's winning on that flop? (Assume all hole cards are exposed.)
Weirdest thing I ever saw was a flop that came down and made 3 sets. Unfortunately, I lost quite a few chips flopping the middle set.
Bonus question:
What is the probability of that? Assume you have 3 specific pocket pairs which are exposed.
Feel free to give your answers as odds if that floats your boat.
That reminds me of one of my favorite Star Wars quotes:
"Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately three thousand, seven hundred and twenty to one."
If you interpret the word "possibility" as "odds", then this means it is incredibly *likely* that they will successfully navigate the asteroid field in question.
However, being a scene from a Hollywood movie, 3PO's probably got the calculation spot on.
And while we're at it, my overall favourite Star Wars quote is:
"LOOSEN UP!!!!"
Someone said this to one of the X-Wing pilots as he was about to crash. It is as if the crash would have been averted if only the pilot had taken a more relaxed attitude towards life. 8)
And my least favorite quote is anything that Jar Jar Binx said.
"The possibility of the nest Jar Jar Binx line being irritating is approximately three thousand, seven hundred and twenty to one."
ScottyZ
Q 1- I believe to be about 92%......
Q 2- I believe to be 7.5-1.......
hope I am somewhere near the ballpark....or I am in the bleachers...
counting the board and the two 77's in the hole, that leaves 45 unseen cards. 2 other players in the hand.
possible 4 card combinations out of the 45 = 148995
To win, the 5 or 10 D must not show up.
possible 4 card combination without the 5 or 10 out of hte 45 = 123410
which gives 83%.
3 specific pocket pairs leaves 46 unseen cards.
46 possible choices for the first card, 45 for the second and 44 for the third gives 91080 possible flops.
6 possible choices for the first card, 4 possible choices for the second, and 2 for the third gives 48 flops.
48/91080 gives .053% or approximately my chance of winning the 2004 WSOP.
However, you may have misinterpreted question #1. For the quad sevens to lose after that flop, the turn and river must come exactly 8d 9d (or 9d 8d of course). So the numerator should be 2.
Probably 0.053% is more like my chances of *entering* the WSOP.
ScottyZ
Because you used combinations in the denominator, the numerator should only be one. (because order doesn't matter). If you use 2 as the numerator, the denominator should be the permutation so 1806 in this case. So the chance of hitting exact runner runner is only 0.11%.
Also, I think there are additional chances for the quad 77's to lose. The 5 is there so (3d, 4d) or (8d, 4d) would also work. So the chance of the quad 77's losing is .33%
And you're right on those extra straight flushes too.
D'uh... :oops: not like I'm supposed to be some kind of math guy or anyhting like that... :shock:
ScottyZ