Outplayed or Overvalued?

stpboystpboy
in General Poker Chat
I've recently been involved in a few hands in live tournaments/cash games where I've been pushed off pots by huge overbets. An example of this:

Short handed tournament (6 players) with the blinds 50/100, everyone is still fairly deep as we all started with 5K in chips. One loose aggressive EP limper, I raise in LP with AJs to 400 total. EP is my only caller.

Flop comes A 7 5 rainbow. EP checks, I fire out about 70% of the pot. EP raises all in for another 4K or so. It's early in the tournament and I'm certain my opponent had a worse hand than me preflop. I'm now believing that he could easily have called with a weak ace, being A5 or A7. I don't think it's smart for me to risk my entire stack this early in the tournament with only a pair. Now really, the only two hands I can put my opponent on is A5 or A7 to beat me. Everything else I beat. He is precisely the type of player to raise preflop with any pair and wouldn't limp in with AK, AQ or even A10.

It got me to thinking that either I am being severely outplayed here or my opponent is really overvaluing their hand or both for that matter. Players know that good players will lay down big hands when put to the test. Exploiting this fact is an important aspect to the aggressive players game, they need to rely on the fact that they can push the rock around. I will often hear after a laydown of this magnitude (I realize AJs isn't that strong but lets keep the field size in mind) that "soandso" just got outplayed. Noone likes to hear this. I'd rather think in this situation that my opponent really overvalued his A-rag and got lucky to hit his 3 outer.

Furthermore, I know that for me, getting pushed around at a table can have some seriously negative affects on my mental game. Wow, I can't believe I'm getting this unlucky. You get the feeling that no matter what hand you have preflop, you'll get outflopped. There is something to be said for self fullfilling prophecies.

I'm not really sure that I have a question here, I just wanted to create some discussion around the concept of a hero being outplayed vs. the villain overvaluing their hand.

FWIW, I folded my AJs and ended up bubbling in this particular tournament.

stp

Comments

  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    That early I probably lay it down. I don't see any reason to risk that many chips for what is presently a small pot. Even if you have him right now with his A 8 if he hits the eight or something your done. You haven't got anywhere close to the nuts it's a 400 or so pot then his 4K bet. Lay it down. Now if it's a 4K pot with another 4K bet I'd call.

    On a similar note, look at what big stacks do in tourney's .... they fire raises with almost anything trying to make the small stacks fold, even if they get called they still fire away again after the flop. Earlier today big stack fires 3K into my 1K blind I have just over 10K and in 30 with 40 paying (62 left) with a suited AK. I refire back committing myself and he calls. flop was 5 7 9 rainbow and big stack calls my all in. He turns over 2 3 off (Braad was that you?) and the turn is a 4 then he rivers the 3. Just because your way ahead doesn't mean it will end that way. I was the 3rd or 4th person he bad beat at the table.
  • Jay845Jay845
    AcidJoe wrote:

    On a similar note, look at what big stacks do in tourney's .... they fire raises with almost anything trying to make the small stacks fold, even if they get called they still fire away again after the flop.  Earlier today big stack fires 3K into my 1K blind I have just over 10K and in 30 with 40 paying (62 left) with a suited AK.  I refire back committing myself and he calls.  flop was 5 7 9 rainbow and big stack calls my all in.  He turns over 2 3 off (Braad was that you?) and the turn is a 4 then he rivers the 3.  Just because your way ahead doesn't mean it will end that way.  I was the 3rd or 4th person he bad beat at the table. 

    To me that is result oriented thinking.  You got your money is as a 3 to 1 favorite.  I like my chances.

    Edit: Sorry, forgot to post my ideas regarding the OP situation. I think the lay down was good given your situation. Small pot, with lots of poker left to play. At time I have seen loose aggressive players use huge overbets to induce calls out of a player. Perhaps in fact these players are loose-agressive, but really "tricky" players
  • magithighsmagithighs
    I think you're equating rocks with good players.  One doesn't necessarily equal the other.  Pushing a weak player off a pot is easy.  I don't think you'd be in the weak category.  The reality, with more experience and knowledge, you start to figure out how your opponents can beat you.  You rely on luck less often and will rarely get money in with K8. 

    I've come to realize that I can and will be outplayed and will be pushed out of pots.  I'm ok with that.  If someone shows me their great bluff, I tip my hat and say nice play.  I don't have to win every pot.  However, got back to the tape and examine every single minute detail of the hand.  Usually, I pick up some tells which I later exploit.  It's hard to exploit things when you're broke.

    Cheers
    Magi
  • specialKspecialK
    stp, i remember this hand. i don't think you are being outplayed in this situation... i don't really think that you can even consider that you got outplayed here. If anything i would tend to see it the other way around (a mistake by your opponent) this being coming into a raised pot with A-rag. Also, with a flop like A-rag-rag in a pot with a loose - aggressive you have to come to expect that maybe they hit their three outter vs. your AK or some such... the important thing is, that you know this and you don't lose your chips to them. another important thing to remember is that your opponent is the one who has made the mistake by calling your raise preflop and they got lucky, hit their three outter... so what! 70% of the time the cards will fall in your favour.
  • Big EBig E
    It's early in the tournament and I'm certain my opponent had a worse hand than me preflop. I'm now believing that he could easily have called with a weak ace, being A5 or A7. I don't think it's smart for me to risk my entire stack this early in the tournament with only a pair.

    By this reasoning alone you cannot think you were outplayed....not sure who you were up against but you see this type of move all the time on line, players limp with A-rag and then push on a flop like this. I will not risk my tournament early by calling this, I think you made the right move...it's frustrating at times but you have to ignore the comments and stay focused...this type of player will continue to come over the top if they think they can push you around...and there is nothing sweeter then coming back at them with the nuts and saying 'buhbye!'
    Furthermore, I know that for me, getting pushed around at a table can have some seriously negative affects on my mental game. Wow, I can't believe I'm getting this unlucky. You get the feeling that no matter what hand you have preflop, you'll get outflopped. There is something to be said for self fullfilling prophecies.

    This is a problem for me at times as well...and I've lost focus sometimes and fired back with a mediocre hand only to have the other player show me I'm dominated...patience and focus both are hard to keep...now when something like this happens or I just feel 'off' I tend to tighten up (yes I can get TIGHTER!) not sure if that is right or wrong?
  • PokerNut2094PokerNut2094
    Stp

    For what its worth, I think your laydown is the right play for many of the reasons already posted. Also, Lets assume this guy was making a play at you. It may work against a solid player willing to lay down top pair more times than not. But he is risking a huge amount of chips to win about 800 chips. The one time you actually catch him trying this steal with a huge overbet, you will make up the amount of chips you lose and then some.

    Also, I think this play depends on your overall tourney philosophy. I personally, don't like to risk my tournament life calling a huge overbet. I would simply fold and move on to the next hand. Others may say f-it and call and if the lose say "oh well, i play to win".

    glen
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