Overestimating our reads...
OK, a recent session, 2 hands in particular vs. the same opponent who seemed semi-reasonable, but occasionally gets a bit out of line (22.8/13.4/3.03) that was a bit of wakeup call in terms of what I thought of my hand reading ability... I don't exactly know what the point of this post is, other than in hand one I felt I had my opponent in a very tight box whereas in hand 2 (which happened maybe an orbit later), I was so utterly confused at the end of the hand, that I just shook my head and wondered how overinflated my ego was that I "KNEW" I was beat in hand 1.
Hand 1: The more the hand progressed (specifically the turn call and the wakeup on the river) I was convinced he'd hit the higher set. I ALMOST just called the river raise, but monkey man said "What are you nuts?" and of course 3 bet...
The hand:
***** Hand History for Game 3711781565 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Friday, March 10, 22:04:14 ET 2006
Table Table 95956 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: ScoobD ( $402 )
Seat 5: Dom_pre ( $179 )
Seat 4: footballpup ( $79 )
Seat 6: MsCowgirl ( $98.50 )
Seat 8: sak2020 ( $115 )
Seat 3: kenny57 ( $329.50 )
Seat 1: fermin999 ( $103.50 )
Seat 9: ILPESCE ( $104 )
Seat 2: Goichab ( $30 )
Seat 10: Aphrodite91 ( $150 )
ScoobD posts small blind [$1].
sak2020 posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [Â Kh Kd ]
ILPESCE folds.
fermin999 calls [$3].
kenny57 folds.
footballpup folds.
Dom_pre raises [$6].
MsCowgirl folds.
ScoobD raises [$8].
sak2020 folds.
fermin999 calls [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
fermin999 calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7c, 9s, 9d ]
ScoobD bets [$3].
fermin999 calls [$3].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD raises [$6].
fermin999 folds.
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
ScoobD bets [$6].
Dom_pre calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
ScoobD bets [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$12].
ScoobD raises [$12].
Dom_pre raises [$12].
ScoobD: can't believe it, but XXXX
ScoobD calls [$6].
Dom_pre shows [ Ah, Ac ] a full house, Aces full of nines.
ScoobD doesn't show [ Kh, Kd ] a full house, Kings full of nines.
Dom_pre wins $123 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of nines.
So for the next orbit I'm thinking, "Sometimes you have to go with your gut even though it seems crazy"
Then this hand comes up...
Hand 2:Â I think I might have had MUBS if he'd raised the river (but pretty sure I'm 3 betting anyways).
***** Hand History for Game 3711841381 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Friday, March 10, 22:11:14 ET 2006
Table Table 95956 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: ScoobD ( $339 )
Seat 5: Dom_pre ( $283 )
Seat 4: footballpup ( $70.50 )
Seat 6: MsCowgirl ( $92.50 )
Seat 8: sak2020 ( $108 )
Seat 3: kenny57 ( $325.50 )
Seat 1: fermin999 ( $72.50 )
Seat 9: ILPESCE ( $104 )
Seat 2: Goichab ( $30 )
Seat 10: Aphrodite91 ( $156 )
MsCowgirl posts small blind [$1].
ScoobD posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [Â Th Td ]
sak2020 folds.
ILPESCE folds.
Aphrodite91 folds.
fermin999 folds.
kenny57 folds.
footballpup folds.
Dom_pre raises [$6].
MsCowgirl folds.
ScoobD raises [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 3d, 2s ]
ScoobD bets [$3].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD raises [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
ScoobD checks.
Dom_pre bets [$6].
ScoobD raises [$12].
Dom_pre raises [$12].
ScoobD raises [$12].
Dom_pre calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
ScoobD bets [$6].
Dom_pre calls [$6].
ScoobD shows [ Th, Td ] three of a kind, tens.
Dom_pre doesn't show [ Qc, As ] high card ace.
ScoobD wins $106 from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.
So basically I'm like "Wtf?" and am entirely seeing the first hand in an entirely new light.
I guess the point is being able to make great reads and putting people in boxes is great, but sometimes you can't underestimate the power of erratic play (ie. the Harrington rule that: "there's always SOME chance that your opponent is bluffing, no matter how unlikely it might seem")Â For all I know, he thought I was 3 betting a likely steal raise and thought his A high was good I guess (although when I'm check-raising the turn, after the capped flop, I'm not sure how that's still in his head, since I hadn't really been too out of line).
I think I need to work better on taking notes of my opponents play. Numbers are nice but only go so far. Knowing an opponent is capable of making a bizarre play from time to time is certainly worth it...
Hand 1: The more the hand progressed (specifically the turn call and the wakeup on the river) I was convinced he'd hit the higher set. I ALMOST just called the river raise, but monkey man said "What are you nuts?" and of course 3 bet...
The hand:
***** Hand History for Game 3711781565 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Friday, March 10, 22:04:14 ET 2006
Table Table 95956 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: ScoobD ( $402 )
Seat 5: Dom_pre ( $179 )
Seat 4: footballpup ( $79 )
Seat 6: MsCowgirl ( $98.50 )
Seat 8: sak2020 ( $115 )
Seat 3: kenny57 ( $329.50 )
Seat 1: fermin999 ( $103.50 )
Seat 9: ILPESCE ( $104 )
Seat 2: Goichab ( $30 )
Seat 10: Aphrodite91 ( $150 )
ScoobD posts small blind [$1].
sak2020 posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [Â Kh Kd ]
ILPESCE folds.
fermin999 calls [$3].
kenny57 folds.
footballpup folds.
Dom_pre raises [$6].
MsCowgirl folds.
ScoobD raises [$8].
sak2020 folds.
fermin999 calls [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
fermin999 calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7c, 9s, 9d ]
ScoobD bets [$3].
fermin999 calls [$3].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD raises [$6].
fermin999 folds.
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
ScoobD bets [$6].
Dom_pre calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
ScoobD bets [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$12].
ScoobD raises [$12].
Dom_pre raises [$12].
ScoobD: can't believe it, but XXXX
ScoobD calls [$6].
Dom_pre shows [ Ah, Ac ] a full house, Aces full of nines.
ScoobD doesn't show [ Kh, Kd ] a full house, Kings full of nines.
Dom_pre wins $123 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of nines.
So for the next orbit I'm thinking, "Sometimes you have to go with your gut even though it seems crazy"
Then this hand comes up...
Hand 2:Â I think I might have had MUBS if he'd raised the river (but pretty sure I'm 3 betting anyways).
***** Hand History for Game 3711841381 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Friday, March 10, 22:11:14 ET 2006
Table Table 95956 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: ScoobD ( $339 )
Seat 5: Dom_pre ( $283 )
Seat 4: footballpup ( $70.50 )
Seat 6: MsCowgirl ( $92.50 )
Seat 8: sak2020 ( $108 )
Seat 3: kenny57 ( $325.50 )
Seat 1: fermin999 ( $72.50 )
Seat 9: ILPESCE ( $104 )
Seat 2: Goichab ( $30 )
Seat 10: Aphrodite91 ( $156 )
MsCowgirl posts small blind [$1].
ScoobD posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [Â Th Td ]
sak2020 folds.
ILPESCE folds.
Aphrodite91 folds.
fermin999 folds.
kenny57 folds.
footballpup folds.
Dom_pre raises [$6].
MsCowgirl folds.
ScoobD raises [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 3d, 2s ]
ScoobD bets [$3].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD raises [$6].
Dom_pre raises [$6].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
ScoobD checks.
Dom_pre bets [$6].
ScoobD raises [$12].
Dom_pre raises [$12].
ScoobD raises [$12].
Dom_pre calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
ScoobD bets [$6].
Dom_pre calls [$6].
ScoobD shows [ Th, Td ] three of a kind, tens.
Dom_pre doesn't show [ Qc, As ] high card ace.
ScoobD wins $106 from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.
So basically I'm like "Wtf?" and am entirely seeing the first hand in an entirely new light.
I guess the point is being able to make great reads and putting people in boxes is great, but sometimes you can't underestimate the power of erratic play (ie. the Harrington rule that: "there's always SOME chance that your opponent is bluffing, no matter how unlikely it might seem")Â For all I know, he thought I was 3 betting a likely steal raise and thought his A high was good I guess (although when I'm check-raising the turn, after the capped flop, I'm not sure how that's still in his head, since I hadn't really been too out of line).
I think I need to work better on taking notes of my opponents play. Numbers are nice but only go so far. Knowing an opponent is capable of making a bizarre play from time to time is certainly worth it...