Nut flush & nut straight draw
This post may bring into the question the statement “there are no stupid questions†but I’ll admit I’m a total noob when it comes to poker.
It’s a $10max NL ring game. [edit] My original post had me on the button which is incorrect since I was first to act the remaining rounds. So it had to have been the 2nd hand and I was in the SB which makes me feel a little better about the .35 raise with Ac Tc. The essence is that I was first to act on the remaining rounds and I was heads up with the nut straight and flush draws. (Without the HH readily available, I'm 99% pretty sure the MP limped and I raised to knock out the BB and isolate the limper. Otherwise I would've called the MP raise.)[/edit]
Flop is Qc xc Kd (I forget what the rag was but it was the same suit as the Q). I’m first to act and I’ve got the nut (gutshot) straight draw and nut flush draw giving me 12 outs (9 + 4 -1) which gives me a 45% chance of hitting one of my draws by the river (unless I’m totally misunderstaning odds and chances in which case I’m going back to tiddly-winks).
The only thing I’m afraid of is the board pairing because that could give my opponent a boat or quads. Worse case scenario is they flopped a set and they have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn to beat me, better case scenario is they flopped two pair and they have 4 outs. [edit] Although since they originally limped, a pocket pair is unlikely. K & Q is the most likely worst case scenario. [/edit].
I’m going to assume at this point I’m behind because the only hand I’m ahead of at this point is ace – rag. But I’ve got lots of outs to improve to the best hand so even though I’m on a draw (well, two draws) I want to get paid off if I hit one of them.
I bet the pot ($1) and get called. Turn is a rag so I bet the pot ($3) and get called again. I figured that either (a) I’ll take the pot down there or (b) he likes his hand enough to pay me off on the river if I make my draw. At this point I have no reason to assume that he thinks I’m on a draw.
The river is a blank and I check/fold to his all-in bet.
I’m not a math wiz so this is where it gets fuzzy but this is what I figured:
55 times out of 100 I won’t make my draw and will have lost $4 each time for a total loss of $220.
45 times I will make my draw (and assuming he calls a $1 bet on the river) I will win $5 each time for a total win of $225. Since he’d probably call more than $1 on the river, my total win would probably be higher but that’s the threshold for it to be a +EV play. (Obviously, being ahead $5 after 100 hands is a waste of time but I'm assuming that he'd call a much larger river bet on average - I just wanted to figure out the minimum river bet for the play to be +EV).
Is this correct or do I need to take remedial math? Besides the pre-flop overbet, did I play this too aggressively or too passively all things considered?
It’s a $10max NL ring game. [edit] My original post had me on the button which is incorrect since I was first to act the remaining rounds. So it had to have been the 2nd hand and I was in the SB which makes me feel a little better about the .35 raise with Ac Tc. The essence is that I was first to act on the remaining rounds and I was heads up with the nut straight and flush draws. (Without the HH readily available, I'm 99% pretty sure the MP limped and I raised to knock out the BB and isolate the limper. Otherwise I would've called the MP raise.)[/edit]
Flop is Qc xc Kd (I forget what the rag was but it was the same suit as the Q). I’m first to act and I’ve got the nut (gutshot) straight draw and nut flush draw giving me 12 outs (9 + 4 -1) which gives me a 45% chance of hitting one of my draws by the river (unless I’m totally misunderstaning odds and chances in which case I’m going back to tiddly-winks).
The only thing I’m afraid of is the board pairing because that could give my opponent a boat or quads. Worse case scenario is they flopped a set and they have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn to beat me, better case scenario is they flopped two pair and they have 4 outs. [edit] Although since they originally limped, a pocket pair is unlikely. K & Q is the most likely worst case scenario. [/edit].
I’m going to assume at this point I’m behind because the only hand I’m ahead of at this point is ace – rag. But I’ve got lots of outs to improve to the best hand so even though I’m on a draw (well, two draws) I want to get paid off if I hit one of them.
I bet the pot ($1) and get called. Turn is a rag so I bet the pot ($3) and get called again. I figured that either (a) I’ll take the pot down there or (b) he likes his hand enough to pay me off on the river if I make my draw. At this point I have no reason to assume that he thinks I’m on a draw.
The river is a blank and I check/fold to his all-in bet.
I’m not a math wiz so this is where it gets fuzzy but this is what I figured:
55 times out of 100 I won’t make my draw and will have lost $4 each time for a total loss of $220.
45 times I will make my draw (and assuming he calls a $1 bet on the river) I will win $5 each time for a total win of $225. Since he’d probably call more than $1 on the river, my total win would probably be higher but that’s the threshold for it to be a +EV play. (Obviously, being ahead $5 after 100 hands is a waste of time but I'm assuming that he'd call a much larger river bet on average - I just wanted to figure out the minimum river bet for the play to be +EV).
Is this correct or do I need to take remedial math? Besides the pre-flop overbet, did I play this too aggressively or too passively all things considered?
Comments
I see. Too aggressive. If I get re-raised all-in on the turn there would be a total of $14.50 in the pot ($6 after my bet + $3 call + $5.50 raise) so I wouldn't have the odds to call (2.8:1 to make a draw with one card left) vs (2.6:1 on the money) and would have to fold? Not that I'd want to go all-in on a draw even if I did have odds with one card to come. (Which is maybe why I'm neither ahead or behind overall).
[edit] I've thought about it some more,and I figure that the reasoning behind check calling a pot sized bet is that I would've had to call a $3 bet for a $9 pot (3:1 odds on a 2.8:1 draw) and I could safely continue with the draw. If the bet is smaller, I still just call since I don't have a made hand and if I miss my draw I lose less to miss it.[/edit]
[re-edit] I realize now that with $3 in the pot, a $3 bet would mean I'd have to call $3 for a $6 pot which only gives me 2:1 on my money. Since this isn't favourable odds, don't I fold? Or is this a case of implied odds if I make my hand?
I apologize if these are really stupid questions but I've been playing for about 3 weeks and while I'm basically even, I think a big part of my problem is that I am not properly using odds (ie: calling when I shouldn't or giving my opponents the correct odds to call when I shouldn't).
[/edit].
NL is all about implied odds. It's figuring out what the implied odds are that's the hard part (it's a grey area). But in general if the immediate pot odds are very close to giving you the odds to call, the implied odds should swing it into a +EV play (assuming your opponent still has chips to lose).