WRGPT15 - Still alive + Bonus HH

http://www.quizkids.com/wrgpt15/

83 of 115 after an ungodly number of days.

Heck, I'll even include a hand for discussion..


! Table e8, Hand 167, Day 155

! Chuck Thompson folds
! Charlie M. folds
! Paul Rotering folds
! Chris Rojas folds
! hopper folds
! BBC Z is next to act, $12000 to call
! Unlimited raises
! Pot size: $43000
! Next timeout set for Tue, 14 Mar 2006 14:07 PST
! Betting round: 1
! Board: ? ? ? ? ?
+-+
+
+
+
+----+
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|#| Name |Bankroll| Action |Status|Pot#|Pot Size|
+-+
+
+
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+----+
+
1| Chuck Thompson | 186000 | 500 |folded| | |
2| Charlie M. | 51300 | 500 |folded| | |
3| Paul Rotering | 23475 | 500 |folded| | |
4|D Chris Rojas | 178650 | 500 |folded| | |
5| hopper | 52500 | 2500 |folded| | |
6|> BBC Z | 46250 | 4500 | | | |
7| Barton Finchley | 263300 | 16500 | | | |
8| craigvdf | 111875 | 500 |folded| | |
9| Aaron Sherman | 18325 | 16500 | | | |
10| Melissa Norton | 102950 | 500 |folded| | |
+-+
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+----+
+

I'm in the BB with 66. This was a recently drawn table with about 2 hands of prior history.

Barton Open raises to 16500 UTG. I looked at his history and saw nothing that tells me he does this with anything less that 99+, AJ+. I've also found that he'll call practically any all-in that isn't a signficant number of chips, so fold equity == 0.

Aaron calls(??) for some reason. I didnt bother looking at his history since I had him covered. His call is bizarre because it seems like he should push, so it made me think he has a better than average hand.

Folded to me in the big blind. If anyone does checking of prior hands, they're going to see that I'm willing to dance with low pocket pairs and AJ+.

Now, the antes are $500, the blinds are $2000/$4000 and I have 46K in chips.

Whats your move?

Call, Raise or Fold?

Comments

  • I think you have to fold. I don't see why you'd want to put 1/3rd (or all) of your stack in here. With a small pair you really want to be the aggressor. As you said you have no fold equity, and I'm not liking the small pair vs. the range you've given. Not to mention, you have to beat the (almost) allin short stack as well, and he's not going anywhere in that pot. You've still got enough chips if you fold to get some fold equity on your steals, but you really want to be the first one in the pot at this point. Taking 66 up against 2 players where neither are folding seems suicidal...
  • Congrats on surviving so long! I was out over a month ago :(

    I'm not sure that you have enough chips to fold this hand, even though you're almost certainly getting called. You can only survive 4 more laps, calling will leave you with just under 3. If he has a pair you're dominated, but if he has Ax you're a coin-flip. I also don't see any point in moving all-in since you're getting called anyway. Personally, I'd flat-call and simply push if there's no Ace. If an A hits, his entire range has you beat, so you can pick another spot (in the next lap ;) ). But if there's no ace, you're gambling that he has big cards instead of a pair. This feels a little weak to me, but you at least buy yourself an out for worst-case, and you're no worse off than pushing in immediately anyway (and you have an outside chance of flopping a 6). I say stop-n-go (but me and my strategy have already busted out ;) ).
  • I'm actually trying to figure out why you even posted this... The only other conceivable play (that didn't dawn on me right away) is the "hunting foxes in the dark" play (since you're first to act as the BB).  You call with the intention of pushing any flop, hope the raiser had a big ace, missed and folds, and now hope that you're in a race vs the short stack, getting 2:1 from the pot on basically an even money shot (with no risk of busting).  I'll say this much, it's interesting...but it just seems like too much needs to go right with the hand for it to work (hope the UTG raiser will fold his hand, and hope the other caller doesn't have a bigger pair, and hope that you manage to dodge his overcards).  Or maybe I'm way off on this...
  • Easy fold for you.
    IMO, you have a real good read on the fact that Aaron is trying to hide his strength by simply calling and hoping to get another unobservant player along. You're likely beat by him, so your 3.5-1 pot odds are no good if you only have 2 outs.
    Now the question is do you push to try to win the side pot over Barton, and again the answer is no, because as your research shows, he's likely to be ahead already, and if not it's a race situation for even money, which you want no part of.
    You'll find a better spot to get it all in with, hopefully within the next orbit or two.
  • I better post this quick before the ban-hammer comes rolling along..

    Anyway, this hand generated quite a debate between hork and I. I thought it was an easy fold against the range of hands I had put my opponent on. He countered with two points:

    1) You could go for the stop-and-go. Call the bet and then push any non-ace or 6 flop.
    2) The tournament has been running for around 170/person on average. Can I really limit villians range as tightly as I was?

    For Point #1, my argument was that the number of chips I had left after the call wouldn't really disseude a call from missed overcard, but I give my opponent a free look at busting me if he catches a pair > 6. Theres no way he'll fold a pair of 7's of better given those pot odds. So my equity edge seems thin in this scenario.

    Point 2 was a good one. Given that I've only seen Barton showdown maybe 10-12 hands, how tight can my hand range really be? I can't say I have much of a response to this one other than "You have to work with the information you are given".

    So I found it interesting that ScoobyD managed to have the debate over how to play the hand with himself and hit on all the major points hork & I came up with.

    Oh also, in general we seem to have lost all the aggressive psycho's in the tournament and the ante/blind structure increase the value of steals and what they mean to a stack. So when you combine the two (tighter opponents and bigger Steal EV) I wasn't dying to play the hand.

    So, I took the chicken route and folded because I thought 1) That I can steal down the road in another spot and 2) That I may get a better spot to push all-in with.

    Barton showed AKo and Aaron shows AJo.

    That AJo confused me a lot.

    Of course, a 6 hit the flop, but thats just result oriented BS :-)
  • BBC Z wrote:
    1) You could go for the stop-and-go. Call the bet and then push any non-ace or 6 flop.
    2) The tournament has been running for around 170/person on average. Can I really limit villians range as tightly as I was?
    I'm with Hork on #1, as my post indicates. For #2, I hadn't really thought about how many hands you've actually seen. However, this is no different than most MTT's where you don't really know anybody's play except what you see during a given tournament, so limit it as much as you normally would.

    BBC Z wrote:
    Of course, a 6 hit the flop, but thats just result oriented BS :-)
    Congrats on nearly tripling up Hork! ;)
  • BBC, what the devil is this thing?

    I checked out the link, and I can't make any sense of it.

    Cheers
  • dinobot wrote:
    BBC, what the devil is this thing?

    I checked out the link, and I can't make any sense of it.

    Cheers

    The World Rec Gambling Poker Tournnament. Rec.Gambling.Poker (http://www.recpoker.com) is a newsgroup that predates 2+2 and has been around since 1990 or so.

    It's the worlds slowest poker tournament ever. Zero entry fee, you play by email and it takes about a year to win at the rate of 1 hand / day. Registration is around August/September every year..

    Lee Jones was a previous champion back in the day.
  • oh, alright, I think I read about Chris Ferguson being a big champ at this thing. What do they use in terms of a randomizer to deal the hands, flops, etc.


    Cheers
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