How do you play this?
50$ 10 person live SNG
4 people left
Blinds are 300/600 75 ante
I am button with 6 :h:7 :h: 8500 in chips
Mistake 1 - I limp.
SB with 15K in chips smooth calls
BB with 9K in chips checks
Flop Q :h:10 :h:6 :c:
I have not once limped in this game, and only shown winners at showdown.
SB checks
BB bets 1475
BB is lag, but you are 75% certain he has the TP here.
How do you play this out?
4 people left
Blinds are 300/600 75 ante
I am button with 6 :h:7 :h: 8500 in chips
Mistake 1 - I limp.
SB with 15K in chips smooth calls
BB with 9K in chips checks
Flop Q :h:10 :h:6 :c:
I have not once limped in this game, and only shown winners at showdown.
SB checks
BB bets 1475
BB is lag, but you are 75% certain he has the TP here.
How do you play this out?
Comments
So I guess my original assumption was wrong and that it's actually a race situation if you care to play it.
Tinkerbell, why do you feel that limping on the button was a mistake? I'm asking because that's probably what I would have done.
/g2
*** Edit: I forgot that the SB limped... so you do have odds to call with 3575 in the pot.
Uhh No.. If you are willing to call two streets worth of cards to draw to your flush you can take S0S's odds. You still need to call the turn bet, so you'd need 5 to 1 immediate odds to call the flop if you dont want to consider implied odds.
Now, all being said, I'd prefer to push all-in against him.. I dont know where this 75% BS comes from, but if you classified him a LAG theres no way he has a better pair that often.
If you are so confident about your read, then it's an easy fold.
Not if the BB is capable of folding some of these hands. I would raise or fold preflop, if you have a very tight image than raising is a good idea. The flop looks like a pretty standard push.
Now the other side of the coin.
Assuming 6 :h: 7 :h: pushes.
BB is holding Q9os no heart.
Even though TP is leading is it wrong strategically here to call the all-in on the bubble for a 50/50
Strictly speaking, if he "knows" he's 50/50, He's getting somewhere around 5:3 on his money (about 6400 into a 10.5k pot), so his call is +EV. Assuming that there isn't a micro stack treading water, this isn't a horrible call. Of course if he doesn't "know" he's ahead, he could be a big dog to a better Q. Given your tight image, unless he had some sort of read, it's tough to "know" he's in a good spot here.
This depends on all the stack sizes and the payout. I don't imagine it could be wrong getting such good odds but if you give all the stack sizes and payout info I'll plug into ICM calculator and find out.
4050 total. - his bet is in there along with my matching portion.
I believe I had an additional 5300 MORE for him to call.
At this point he has 6900 left.
3rd 90$
2nd 130$
1st 230$
There's 2100 preflop + his bet of 1475 + your call of 1475 + your allin raise of 6425 = Pot size of 11475.
It's 6425 to call.
Pot odds are 1.786:1.
Pretty good odds...
However I don't think I can call this if I am him. I am getting less than 2:1 on my money. don't I need at LEAST 2:1 if its a 50/50?
I thought I read somewhere that this is what defines the great players from average joes - an average Joe would chase a flush draw if some one offered him 2.9:1. However a great poker player sees a world of difference between 3.3:1 and 2.9:1
In terms of EV, you need to be getting better than 1:1 on your money, so no. You need to be getting at least 2:1 if you figure you're a 2:1 dog.