How do you play this?

50$ 10 person live SNG

4 people left

Blinds are 300/600 75 ante

I am button with 6 :h:7 :h: 8500 in chips

Mistake 1 - I limp.

SB with 15K in chips smooth calls
BB with 9K in chips checks

Flop Q :h:10 :h:6 :c:
I have not once limped in this game, and only shown winners at showdown.
SB checks
BB bets 1475
BB is lag, but you are 75% certain he has the TP here.

How do you play this out?

Comments

  • I posted that I felt it was an easy fold, but then I checked the online odds calculator at cardplayer and it seems you're about a 51-49 favourite, assuming BB has only a Q or a T.
    So I guess my original assumption was wrong and that it's actually a race situation if you care to play it.
  • Tinkerbell wrote:
    50$ 10 person live SNG

    4 people left

    Blinds are 300/600 75 ante

    I am button with :6h :7h 8500 in chips

    Mistake 1 - I limp.

    SB with 15K in chips smooth calls
    BB with 9K in chips checks

    Flop :qh :10h :6c
    I have not once limped in this game, and only shown winners at showdown.
    SB checks
    BB bets 1475
    BB is lag, but you are 75% certain he has the TP here.

    How do you play this out?

    SOS wrote:
    easy fold, you're likely a 2.5-1 dog at best, so there's no point getting involved in an even money pot
    I think you missed that he has 4 to the heart flush.  I call... you're 50/50 if he has something like Q9.  The only way you're actually behind 2-1 is if he has the open-ended straight flush draw (even then you still almost have odds)***.

    Tinkerbell, why do you feel that limping on the button was a mistake?  I'm asking because that's probably what I would have done.

    /g2

    *** Edit: I forgot that the SB limped... so you do have odds to call with 3575 in the pot.
  • FWIW, I do not think limping is a mistake here.calling post-flop would be a mistake IMO. You could get caught in a squeeze between the two blinds. You may have as many as 14 outs. you have to push allin or fold. You really do not know anything about the strength of the BB, the SB showed weakness by checking. I would push here.
  • I just feel in general limping on the bubble is a weak play. It's inviting people to play back at you and I was the short stack at the table. I had worked all game to have a very tight image and I should have used that image to my advantage at this point.
  • you're 50/50 if he has something like Q9.

    Uhh No.. If you are willing to call two streets worth of cards to draw to your flush you can take S0S's odds. You still need to call the turn bet, so you'd need 5 to 1 immediate odds to call the flop if you dont want to consider implied odds.

    Now, all being said, I'd prefer to push all-in against him.. I dont know where this 75% BS comes from, but if you classified him a LAG theres no way he has a better pair that often.
  • Sorry I should clarify. I am 100% certain he has hit that board with the Queen being most likely. The 10 would be the other 25%. I could not see him leading out with BP in this situation.
  • If I am the BB in this hand, I make the same bet with any two cards if the SB checks. You have shown weakness preflop, based upon your conservative image. I make this bet to get you to define your hand better for me. If you are in fact weak, you fold, and assuming the SB isn't trapping, I win the pot. If you are strong, you come back at me, and I then reconsider my situation based upon my holding. Allin against the BB puts a lot of pressure on him to have a hand. You may be the short stack, but you can cripple him badly. I think if you go allin, most of the time the BB folds, and you have scooped a nice pot so that now you are not the short stack.
  • Tinkerbell wrote:
    Sorry I should clarify. I am 100% certain he has hit that board with the Queen being most likely. The 10 would be the other 25%. I could not see him leading out with BP in this situation.

    If you are so confident about your read, then it's an easy fold.
  • BBC Z wrote:
    Tinkerbell wrote:
    Sorry I should clarify. I am 100% certain he has hit that board with the Queen being most likely. The 10 would be the other 25%. I could not see him leading out with BP in this situation.

    If you are so confident about your read, then it's an easy fold.

    Not if the BB is capable of folding some of these hands. I would raise or fold preflop, if you have a very tight image than raising is a good idea. The flop looks like a pretty standard push.
  • Thanks for the input.

    Now the other side of the coin.

    Assuming 6 :h: 7 :h: pushes.

    BB is holding Q9os no heart.

    Even though TP is leading is it wrong strategically here to call the all-in on the bubble for a 50/50
  • Even though TP is leading is it wrong strategically here to call the all-in on the bubble for a 50/50

    Strictly speaking, if he "knows" he's 50/50, He's getting somewhere around 5:3 on his money (about 6400 into a 10.5k pot), so his call is +EV. Assuming that there isn't a micro stack treading water, this isn't a horrible call. Of course if he doesn't "know" he's ahead, he could be a big dog to a better Q. Given your tight image, unless he had some sort of read, it's tough to "know" he's in a good spot here.
  • Tinkerbell wrote:
    Thanks for the input.

    Now the other side of the coin.

    Assuming 6 :h: 7 :h: pushes.

    BB is holding Q9os no heart.

    Even though TP is leading is it wrong strategically here to call the all-in on the bubble for a 50/50

    This depends on all the stack sizes and the payout. I don't imagine it could be wrong getting such good odds but if you give all the stack sizes and payout info I'll plug into ICM calculator and find out.
  • Pot is 2100 +1950

    4050 total. - his bet is in there along with my matching portion.

    I believe I had an additional 5300 MORE for him to call.

    At this point he has 6900 left.

    3rd 90$
    2nd 130$
    1st 230$
  • Pot is 2100 +1950

    4050 total. - his bet is in there along with my matching portion.

    There's 2100 preflop + his bet of 1475 + your call of 1475 + your allin raise of 6425 = Pot size of 11475.

    It's 6425 to call.

    Pot odds are 1.786:1.

    Pretty good odds...
  • this seems weird preflop, i think you need to raise on the button with this hand to take control, and then when your flop comes down like that you can shove and push TP with weak kicker off their hand... i just think that with the hand 67h and flopping bottom pair + a flush draw with 14 clean outs, you have pretty much hit one of the best possible flops and cannot see folding this hand here.
  • Holy shite did I ever add that incorrectly.

    However I don't think I can call this if I am him. I am getting less than 2:1 on my money. don't I need at LEAST 2:1 if its a 50/50?

    I thought I read somewhere that this is what defines the great players from average joes - an average Joe would chase a flush draw if some one offered him 2.9:1. However a great poker player sees a world of difference between 3.3:1 and 2.9:1
  • don't I need at LEAST 2:1 if its a 50/50?

    In terms of EV, you need to be getting better than 1:1 on your money, so no. You need to be getting at least 2:1 if you figure you're a 2:1 dog.
  • Hmmmm according to the ICM calculator it would be basically break-even to call with Q9 in that situation knowing he's 50-50, assuming the 4th player has about 7500 chips which I just guessed. In reality he probably has to figure there's agood chance he's beat and fold. On the other hand if he's the type that never folds you should probably just call and hope to hit something on the turn, trying to avoid a huge confrontation on the bubble.
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