Your chances at the WSOP ME 2006?

WaterLooserWaterLooser
in Online Poker
Reading the other thread about places to try and win a seat got me thinking. Also someone I know has already won a seat to this year's event. So what do you think your chances are if you do go? (it doesn't matter if you pay your way or win your way in).

Personally I think I would crumble. I would probably play way too tight early because I would be intimidated by the "life changing $$" potential and the sheer number of entrants. Then I would take a big risk with a small edge and someone would get lucky and IGHN.

Half of the field has read the same books as you, some have read more, studied more, played more, etc. Some are donks with more money than brains, but you have to get lucky just to get them at your table, never mind have to survive an all-in to get all of their chips!

So you have to ask yourself this one question: Do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya?

Comments

  • beanie42beanie42
    If you look at the schedule (http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/2006wsop.asp), it appears that 4 day 1's each go from 2000 down to 800.  Then 2 day 2's go from 1600 to 700.  That means surviving day 2 means being in top 1400 out of 8000, so it seems easier to survive 1/2 field than make it through 2nd day (which requires outlasting over 80% of field).
  • SOSSOS
    Beanie, you're soo analyticaal...but correct
  • TilterTilter
    I'd enjoy it for whats its worth. Would i feel shakey...probably. But this would have to be the deepest tourney (chip wise) I would have ever played. So I could have a good 2-4 hours to soak it in and it wouldn't really be costly. Otherwise, WSOP 2006 BABY!
  • Hork42Hork42
    Who voted for winning the whole thing? Wanna swap %??
  • WaterLooserWaterLooser
    Trevor, I fixed it. It now says blessed to make it TO the second day :) Too bad you can't see who voted for what on the polls (Re: GTA's comment). Personally I voted for option #2 - just getting past day 1 would be a success for me.
  • UnknownUnknown
    I would probably put too much pressure on myself.  I've been waiting to play in a 10K event for some time now, and with all of the build-up, I'm not sure how I'd handle it.  It would probably take me a while to settle into my "A" game (which may or may not be good enough).  I guess I'd just hope that I survived while I was settling in.
  • ScoobyDScoobyD
    I guess I'd just hope that I survived while I was settling in.

    Pretty damn modest coming from a WSOP final tabler...oh wait, this is a Canadian forum...makes sense. :)
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    I've often thought about what happens during the first hand. Does anyone shove ALL IN right away? What would you do if this happened at your table? What do you call with? I'd hate to lose on the 1st hand with Aces, or Kings.

    Honestly, I'd just be happy to be there, and I'd play my game, to the best of my ability. (Not saying much, I know)

    Johnnie
  • UnknownUnknown
    JohnnieH wrote:
    I've often thought about what happens during the first hand.  Does anyone shove ALL IN  right away?  What would you do if this happened at your table?  What do you call with?  I'd hate to lose on the 1st hand with Aces, or Kings. 

    Not sure about others, but here's an excerpt from my trip report from Event #2, 2005 WSOP:
    My strategy was to play the first couple of levels slowly and conservatively.  There was no need to get into major confrontations that would put my entire stack in jeapordy.

    On hand #2 of the tournament, I called all-in, for my entire stack.

    The blinds were 25/25, and we all had 1500 or so, since it was, after all, the second hand.  I was in MP with KK.  2 players limped, and the third made it 175.  I made it 400, and everyone folded except for the original raiser, who called.

    The flop was three low cards.  My opponent checked, and I bet 600.  He went into the tank for a long time, and then moved in.  I called.  He had JJ, no help for him, and he was eliminated.

    So much for slow and conservative.

    So, I guess we know what my thoughts on this matter are... ;)
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    LOL, I said the first hand of the tournament!!

    That was a cool hand for you, how did the guy with JJ take it?

    Was he and internet qualifer, or did he pony up the $10K?
  • UnknownUnknown
    It wasn't 10K... this was Event #2, which had a $1500 buy-in.  I would assume the guy with JJ bought in directly.

    He took it pretty well.  He said "nice hand", got up, and walked away.  I think that at least one player was knocked out on the first hand of the tournament, so at least he wasn't the first guy out!
  • stpboystpboy
    JohnnieH wrote:
    I've often thought about what happens during the first hand.  Does anyone shove ALL IN  right away?  What would you do if this happened at your table?  What do you call with?  I'd hate to lose on the 1st hand with Aces, or Kings. 

    Johnnie


    In one of my bigger tournaments I had an interesting decision on my 2nd hand, I didn't want to have to re-buy more then once so my play was ultra conservative. I believe at the WSOP I would have played it similarily..Here is an excerpt..
    Second hand. Wild player calls 20, Early position Raiser (EPR) raises to 60. Conservative looking player who seems to have a reputation at the casino as a solid player raises to 120. Two players call the 120 plus the WP and EPR. I look down in the BB and see AhKh. Holy crap, what have I gotten myself into? I have a few options here raise and hopefully everyone will fold (although that doesn't seem likely considering 1st hand) or call and see the flop. Folding this hand was not an option to me. I call.

    I end up folding on the flop when it doesn't hit me....some dude flopped quad 4's.

    stp
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    WaterLooser wrote:
    Trevor, I fixed it. It now says blessed to make it TO the second day :) Too bad you can't see who voted for what on the polls (Re: GTA's comment). Personally I voted for option #2 - just getting past day 1 would be a success for me.

    WHat I say?
  • roketinpoketroketinpoket
    I wonder how long I'd last just posting blinds and playing AA, KK, and QQ.
  • WolffhoundWolffhound
    I believe Skalansky wrote about this in his Advanced Tourn book.
    Basically he had 15 minutes to give some guys daughter advice on how to get through the main event.

    I believe it was the top 10 hands, and only one move. All-in pre-flop. I'd have to find the page to remember how
    she ended up doing.
  • Hork42Hork42
    Wolffhound wrote:
    I believe Skalansky wrote about this in his Advanced Tourn book.
    Basically he had 15 minutes to give some guys daughter advice on how to get through the main event.

    I believe it was the top 10 hands, and only one move. All-in pre-flop. I'd have to find the page to remember how
    she ended up doing.

    It's "The System". She didn't do so well, but she ran into some hard luck. Since then Sklansky has put together a more advance version of "the System" with slightly different starting card criteria.

    If you want to play around with the System, I believe it's one of the Poki Bots in the U of Alberta software.
  • Nooner81Nooner81
    I cannot imagine how overwhelming it must be to play the main event for the 1st time. Imagine sitting at your 1st main event and getting called a donkey by Hellmuth as your two pair of KJ cracks his pocket Aces. I can hear him crying now!

    On a more serious note I would probably have an empty bottle under my chair to pee in as the 1st hand is dealt.
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