KWGM hand analysis

stpboy

Here is a hand that I was involved in against Mark "DrTyore", a player I really respect.  We're playing in the 2nd preliminary tournament of 3 for the KW-Grudge match.  This tournament is similar to the poker superstars tournaments where the players gain chips or points for their placings in previous tournaments, 4th championship tournament will determine the winner.  I finished last in the previous one and really need to gain some points here. 

Anyway, the hand and the info. 

One player eliminated so far.
Blinds 50/100
My stack 4800 (avg.)
Marks stack 4400

Mark has been playing a lot of hands, I've played two (not including blinds) but my reputation is as a player that can really change gears at anytime.  We've been playing for over 90 minutes now....

Mark limps in in EP
I raise to 375 in LMP with KQoff
The small blind (Braad "TwoThree") calls
Mark Calls

Flop Kc 9c 3h
Mark checks
Hero bets 450 (for some reason I wasn't worried about the flush, I really wanted a caller as I knew I had both of them beat)
Braad folds
Mark calls instantly

Turn Qc
Mark checks
I look at Mark, sitting there with his head on his hand watching me.  He's looking quite smug, almost as if he is proud of himself for something. 
I say aloud "I'm just going to check and see if I have a club" (knowing full well that I don't)
I check thinking to myself that I can't hold up to a raise with 3 clubs aboard.  perhaps I should have been worried about those Clubs and bet more on the flop.

River 7d
Mark checks (still sitting there with his head on his hand)
I bet out 550 thinking I'm good after double checks from Mark
Mark raises all in

Do I call????  Do you call???

Mark is very capable of making a move but 99% of the time will have a decent enough hand, ie. he's not going to do this on a complete biuff.  I really need to give him credit for something here but what?

Thanks for the comments

stp

SOS

I haven't played with either yourself or the good doctor, so I don't know the history, but if you're good friends, then i think he has the nut flush and decided to be nice and check it down to you. Then when you bet, he said to himself "screw this, if you're betting, I'm going all in"

on the other hand

if you play hard against each other (like friends should), then I put him on K9 and he likely puts you on AK.
I can't think of a logical explanation for the river check though since you checked the turn, he has no reason to believe you'll bet here....unless he knows you so well that he knows you'll interpret the double check as weak and bet for him.
If this is the case, you should call... who knows....poker is so confounding.

Hork42

Nice play, Mark. Gotta fold here.

PS: I'd still bet the turn, your hand has just improved by quite a bit with the Q, don't want to give Mark the free card to draw to the 4-card flush with the Ac. I might check the river if he calls a turn bet, but you lost a chance at taking the pot down/gaining some more knowledge of your opponent's hand by passing the turn.

My guess would be a set of 3s for Mark, but I haven't played with him as much as you do, so it's just a random, out-of-the-blue thought.

stpboy

Here is another response from a poster at another forum, let me know what you think of his responses if you want. I let him know what I think....something about higher variance plays and wanting callers...etc...

stpboy,

Sorry to be so blunt but you really messed up on that hand if you had KQ and folded! I would not attribute it so much as to being outplayed by your opponent but more towards you outplaying yourself.

Preflop action described seemed fairly standard. But with your raise to 375 (3.75x BB), I assume you were wanting some action and not just take the blinds, as the limper and blinds would surely call an extra 275 if they have anything decent. Since DrTyore indicated he was the shorter stack, I assume you had a bigger stack than him. This immediately puts you at a distinct advantage on this hand.

When you hit top pair with the second best kicker possible on the flop, you need to ask yourself if your opponent is playing AK? I would rule that out since your preflop raise was only called and not reraised. AK holds up better heads up and there was 3-way action going into the flop. Your bet of 375 on the flop is meaningless! It is considered standard practice for the preflop raiser to follow through with another similar sized bet on the flop (even if they hit nothing). If I calculate correctly the pot is 1275 (3x 375 + SB + BB), so you gave anyone chasing a flush draw close enough pot odds to see the Turn. Anyways, your bet of 375 looks too standard and although deception is good in some cases, you do not want to appear as if you could be bluffing. You got a decent pot going into the flop and your plan of action should have been to take down the pot right there and a bet closer to 675 was warranted. When the Qc landed on the Turn you had to move in at this point ... you cannot be too passive or scared otherwise you guarantee you will NOT win that specific tournament. But it already got screwed up with the bet of 375 on the flop, so you obtained zero information on what your opponent was playing when he smooth called you.

Regards, Steve