Is this hand now big trouble?
2000 player tourney. down to 40 players, top 10 get paid.
dajaka has been playng well and hitting cards.
Game #1262605532 - Tournament PPC Sat $1k - 4,000/8,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/02/04-13:36:14.3 (CST)
Table "PPC Sat $1k 63" (MTT) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: dajaka (277,401 in chips)
Seat 3: binksy7 (170,694 in chips)
Seat 6: corey2477 (138,194 in chips)
Seat 7: SNOWMAN3132 (173,403 in chips)
Seat 8: NUTSSEEKER (166,807 in chips)
Seat 9: esool (155,616 in chips)
Seat 10: Twan_WVU (263,785 in chips)
binksy7 : Ante (400)
corey2477: Ante (400)
SNOWMAN3132: Ante (400)
NUTSSEEKER: Ante (400)
esool : Ante (400)
Twan_WVU: Ante (400)
dajaka : Ante (400)
binksy7 : Post Small Blind (4,000)
corey2477: Post Big Blind (8,000)
Dealing...
Dealt to esool [ Kh ]
Dealt to esool [ Ks ]
SNOWMAN3132: Fold
NUTSSEEKER: Fold
esool : Raise (25,000)
Twan_WVU: Fold
dajaka : Call (25,000)
binksy7 : Fold
corey2477: Call (17,000)
*** FLOP *** : [ Qh 4h 9s ]
corey2477: Check
esool : Bet (25,000)
dajaka : Raise (252,001)
corey2477: Fold
What hand could this guy have right now?
What should I do, call or fold?
dajaka has been playng well and hitting cards.
Game #1262605532 - Tournament PPC Sat $1k - 4,000/8,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/02/04-13:36:14.3 (CST)
Table "PPC Sat $1k 63" (MTT) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: dajaka (277,401 in chips)
Seat 3: binksy7 (170,694 in chips)
Seat 6: corey2477 (138,194 in chips)
Seat 7: SNOWMAN3132 (173,403 in chips)
Seat 8: NUTSSEEKER (166,807 in chips)
Seat 9: esool (155,616 in chips)
Seat 10: Twan_WVU (263,785 in chips)
binksy7 : Ante (400)
corey2477: Ante (400)
SNOWMAN3132: Ante (400)
NUTSSEEKER: Ante (400)
esool : Ante (400)
Twan_WVU: Ante (400)
dajaka : Ante (400)
binksy7 : Post Small Blind (4,000)
corey2477: Post Big Blind (8,000)
Dealing...
Dealt to esool [ Kh ]
Dealt to esool [ Ks ]
SNOWMAN3132: Fold
NUTSSEEKER: Fold
esool : Raise (25,000)
Twan_WVU: Fold
dajaka : Call (25,000)
binksy7 : Fold
corey2477: Call (17,000)
*** FLOP *** : [ Qh 4h 9s ]
corey2477: Check
esool : Bet (25,000)
dajaka : Raise (252,001)
corey2477: Fold
What hand could this guy have right now?
What should I do, call or fold?
Comments
Your opponent could be playing AA, QQ or 99, in which case, you are in trouble. But he could also be playing A9h which you'd be slightly behind now or AQ, JJ, Axh, maybe TJ, all of which you are ahead of.
Even if you are behind, you've got some outs - another K or a backdoor flush or straight.
Since you're short stacked and have a bunch of chips in there already with a very good chance of having the best hand, I think you should call. This would give you enough chips to qualify for a seat.
I'd call....40 is still a lot of players to make it through, and this pot would make you chip leader at the table.
I made two mistakes with this hand.
I bet too little with the flop. I should have bet at least 50,000 to 75,000 but pushing would be ok too I think.
I bet only 25,000 hoping to get a little action but then when I did I heard monsters under the bed.
I laid it down. I felt real good about the lay down until I thought about the hand more later.
At the time I put him on QQ but I now feel he had AQ for the same reasons you outlined above.
I went out in 18th place.
Seriously, what could he have? If he had QQ preflop, I would have thought he would have raised you preflop, so I don't think he was on QQ. Maybe 99, but I would think AQ more likely. I think I would have called him on it.
- 3.5 hours down the drain.
Your right. You're all right. So was I after the fact probably..
I really do not know what I was thinking. The worst part is I thought I made a good lay down until I started to think about the hand more.
The way I bet the flop the player probably put me on AK, but what did he think the nest player had? Who cares..
Someone that doesn't think much about what is happening during a hand would have made that call in a split second. I thought a little too long but then not long enough.
Truly horrible...
2) Bet way more on the flop - you bet 25k into a 90k pot, that's begging for a raise from just about any hand.
3) You are way ahead of his range of hands here, which includes - JT, KQ, AQ, A9, etc. etc.
Yeah, I know.. I truly do not know how I could make such a ridiculous mistake. Even worse, I then publicize it here. I must have been in shock..
Truly lame.
All kidding aside... I love that flop for cowboys. Not to pile on here, but what else would you hope for to double up at a perfect stage? A queen high flop for some sucker to hit with his AQ or KQ is sweet, and then you own him, unless you get Enzo'd, but there is no stopping that. Sure there are two hearts and possible straight draw but I'd think a slight majority of flops come same suited...
*** Aside - Dave is that right? Anyone know the percentage of this:Â same suits hitting on the flop? Hmm, maybe this needs its own thread?
If he is drawing and you call and he hits, you still got your chips in with the best of it. If this was bubble time of a big cash event, then I can understand - maybe a little bit - of being gun shy about a slow-played monster set - but the odds of a pre-flop raise with those hands is huge. If he hit a set of 4's or 9's you're likely busted (even though you still have outs), but what can you do? I'll take my Kings to that showdown most times, instead of guessing if a guy got lucky and hit a low set.
I'd think over time, this play would be profitable. More profitable still, would be if you grew balls. Note to self: Raise Bill more.
Bring it on Bitch.
Lets see what happens next Monday..
Things will, probably, be getting REAL tight. That's a long way to go to get nothing.
Nobody really short stacked. Everybody is over 10 x BB.
OK. dajaka calls in position for close to 10% of his stack. A reasonable play with lots of possible implied odds hands. So, I will give him "any pair" although KK, QQ, JJ, TT are a little less likely since those hands will often re-raise thinking they are the best right now. AA is a possible slow play. 99 to 22 are possible. A big ace is certainly possible. Suited connectors are possible. And, if he is really tricky any two cards are possible but our hero does not suggest that dajanka is capable of that sort of play.
The BB will have a much wider array of hands. With the first call he is getting pretty swell odds to see the flop.
He has bet 250K into a pot of about 100K. What hands would he do this with? Very hard to say. In my opinion, most players will slow play a set in that spot. That leaves him with a bluff, A-Q or AA. A semi-bluff with Jh-Th is possible.
I call.
It looks to me like he wants to end the hand right now. That suggests he is a little weak.
Now to peek...
No-limit axiom: "Bet the smallest amount that will get the job done."
You would like to shed flush draws, but that may not be possible. If you move in you will offer a call of $125K into a pot of $200. Not quite enough odds for the big stack to call, but the BB will call. So, if you cannot shut out the draws then you, in fact, want action. $25K looks like enough to drop a weak ace to me (good) but small enough to entice action from hands you want in the pot.