Short stacked SNG bubble situations

ScoobyD

OK, I've seen this happen a few times lately (both ways), and I'm trying to figure out whether the play is good or bad overall.

Hypothetical situation (I wish I had the hands, but this is the readers digest version).

Single table SNG. Down to 4, top 3 get paid.

Chip stacks are UTG 5k, Button 4.8k, SB (Hero) 2200, BB (Villain) 1500

UTG folds, Button folds.

Blinds at 100-200 (maybe with a 25 ante)

Hero has AJh. I make a std raise to 600 (with the intention of calling a push). Villain thinks forever and pushes. Hero quickly calls. Villain shows Q7d. Villain of course sucks out, crippling Hero on the bubble.

Similar situation happened the other way in a different SNG where SB made a small raise (frequently raising my blinds) and I pushed back with T7d (thinking that there is some chance of a fold). Villain quickly called with KJo and I flop a T to cripple villain on the bubble.

OK, now in the first situation I made the std raise with the intention of calling a push. So the question begs...why not just push? This eliminates giving your opponent the "illusion" of having any fold equity in the hand (since you intend to call anyways). But then I go back and think...wait a minute, I got my chips in as a 3:2 favourite, that can't be that bad can it? But then I considered the stack sizes and the problem I think is that I have the short stack covered, BUT the short stack can still hurt me. If I'm chip leader here, with little risk to bubble, I don't mind getting my chips in as a 3:2 favourite here. Ditto, if I'm raising a legitimate monster (I know AJs is pretty huge 4 handed, but I'm talking premium pairs here) I don't mind pushing and having him call with a worse hand either. I think the reason I "typically" don't just push here, is because in my mind, pushing looks weaker than making a std raise, and I'm MORE likely to take the blind uncontested (but of course in some peoples mind, the raise could look like a weak steal attempt). But I digress...

I know I haven't presented my thoughts the best on this... But I think the main question is this:

Although getting my chips in as a 3:2 favourite is T$ +EV, I'm not 100% sure it's money +EV in a bubble situation where the short stack has the potential to put me in a bad spot (as opposed to taking the push allin and having them fold result). Even if it's +EV money wise, I'm not sure it's as +EV as pushing. Thoughts?

Based on that, if pushing and getting a fold is indeed the better +EV (money wise) decision, then giving a short stack that can hurt you the "illusion" of fold equity is obviously very dangerous.

Maybe I just need to re-read Harrington again, I'm sure this is covered somewhere...

funkymunky

Wow, maybe you're thinking on a whole 'nother level from me. You were planning on calling the push, and lost, even though you were the favourite. What am I missing?

You're basically in push-fold territory anyway, and small stack is going to call with at least any two decent looking cards (and probably one high card). Are you thinking it's better to wait for someone else to bust, putting you ITM?

I think push is standard. And I probably do it even if I've lost (the same situation) 10 times in a row (although I didn't mind your blind steal play).

Edit - I'm now wondering if I missed the exact question you were asking?

Big E

Hero has AJh. I make a std raise to 600 (with the intention of calling a push).

At this level I'm not sure either move would have produced anything different, I find on-line players looser then live. You push here, he's calling, you raise he's pushing either way you're getting what you want all his chips in the middle with the better hand. However if I find myself in a position where a standard raise and potential call/push is going to eat up 1/3 of my stack or more and leave me very short stacked then I'd rather just push...that decision is mostly based on my post flop play which needs to improve.

ScoobyD

You're basically in push-fold territory anyway, and small stack is going to call with at least any two decent looking cards (and probably one high card).

Agreed, I guess what I'm wondering is if I lost a bit of fold equity by not pushing.  Ie. he may think I'm on a complete steal and there's a small chance of pushing me off the hand by pushing with a hand like a suited Q, 2 high cards, suited connector etc, or even a naked ace (which I'd obviously love).

And the second question is whether I want the call there being a 3:2 favourite given the stack sizes.

Are you thinking it's better to wait for someone else to bust, putting you ITM?

Sort of.  I'm not advocating sitting back and folding everything, but I'm not sure I want to put myself in the spot mentioned, if it can be avoided (by pushing in the first place).

Hope that clears things up a little...

DrTyore

"First in vigorish"

Harrington has an excellent theory of inflection points in tournaments.  His "M" value is something you should be aware of, but the basic breakdown (for those who don't know) is you divide your stack by the size of the pot (in your case, with 100-200 blinds and a 25 ante, the pot is 400, your stack is 2200, so your M is 5.5).

In this case, with AJ and you're essentially in his "red zone" (M <= 5), you push all in.  You do that, and the other fella with the 1500, although he's in the same red zone, can't possibly call with such a weak hand... unless he's really desperate, in which case you got your $ in with the better hand.. unfortunate.

Anyways.. hope this wasn't something you knew, and I helped... you should read harrington vol. 1&2.. they're excellent in detail for these types of situations.

Mark

ScoobyD

hope this wasn't something you knew, and I helped

Umm, I'd say this is probably something I read, but I guess I can't say I "know" it (at least from the hand shown). Thx Tye. And I WAS aware on some level that my raise was pot-committing me anyways...

AcidJoe

To me it's an autopush. If I have 10 BB or under and folded to me in the SB (also has under 10 BB) it's a push regardless of cards. At this point it's where I make my push to win it all. It might explain why I end up going out at the bubble as much as I do. There was an article I read earlier on push/fold bubble play which I'llpost if I can find it.

funkymunky

ScoobyD wrote:

You're basically in push-fold territory anyway, and small stack is going to call with at least any two decent looking cards (and probably one high card).

Agreed, I guess what I'm wondering is if I lost a bit of fold equity by not pushing. Ie. he may think I'm on a complete steal and there's a small chance of pushing me off the hand by pushing with a hand like a suited Q, 2 high cards, suited connector etc, or even a naked ace (which I'd obviously love).

And the second question is whether I want the call there being a 3:2 favourite given the stack sizes.

Are you thinking it's better to wait for someone else to bust, putting you ITM?

Sort of. I'm not advocating sitting back and folding everything, but I'm not sure I want to put myself in the spot mentioned, if it can be avoided (by pushing in the first place).

Hope that clears things up a little...

I'm not sure there is such a thing as fold equity here. I think villain is calling, as another poster suggested.

As far as stack sizes yeah, if you lose the coinflip, you're crippled. But short of mid--high pocket pair, I think this is as ideal situation to push as any. I can'tremember how the hand went down,but would big slick have lost, too?

BBC Z

Make your standard raise and call the all-in. If your standard raise is all-in then do the same.

Don't switch them up. The only time I switch to an all-in preflop game is when I'm severely shortstacked. Your hand is good enough heads up that you don't mind a call. It's sets up 1) Future steals that will only cost you 3xBB and 2) an image that you only raise good hands if you get called. If you push here, you realise that you need to push any two next time you want to steal or his spidey sense will start tingling.

AcidJoe

Here is the article I talked about in my earlier post. Which talks about pushing to steal the blinds from the sb.

http://www.tightpoker.com/tournament/theorem_blind_stealing.html

funkymunky

Nice article, thanks!!

Big E

Very interesting read AcidJoe...I find myself too tight around bubble time and usually avergae stack or less so this is worth some further thought and testing. Thanks.

ddmilcan

I too will read the article, and Eric, I'll be watching you!!!!!!!


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