I need some expert advice

MikeyGee

Hey Dave, good job at the WSOP. I enjoyed following your progress on pokerforum.
I have been playing poker for about two years now. I have really tried to learn as much as I can about the game. I have read and studied all the popular books (including just recently your book). I have become very successful in the home games I play in. I have been to the casino in Brantford five times with an hourly win rate of about $18.00. According to most this is not a bad win rate at a 5-10 table. I have two kids and I work full time so it is very difficult for me to find the time to go to the casino. The wait is usually a couple of hours in itself. I started playing on-line for small stakes. I usually play .50-1.00 tables and play in 5.00 tourneys. I have had a terrible record playing on-line. In fact I am down about $150 in the last four months playing these small stakes. A good friend of mine suggests that I would do better in the higher stake games because of my skill level. I feel that if I can't beat the small limit games how on earth can I beat higher limit games. My confidence is gone and I think it would affect my game if I ever went to play at the casino again. What do you think about all of this? Should I reconsider my skill level and keep plugging away at the small limit stuff.

Thanks
MikeyGee

Dave Scharf

I have been to the casino in Brantford five times with an hourly win rate of about $18.00. According to most this is not a bad win rate at a 5-10 table.

Although this is not your question I feel compelled to utter a quick warning: beware the powerful emotional effect of short term results. I have many many many many times come to believe that I am a better player than I am based upon a short term run of luck. Wanna know how much I am down since coming back from the WSOP?

have two kids and I work full time so it is very difficult for me to find the time to go to the casino. The wait is usually a couple of hours in itself. I started playing on-line for small stakes. I usually play .50-1.00 tables and play in 5.00 tourneys. I have had a terrible record playing on-line. In fact I am down about $150 in the last four months playing these small stakes. A good friend of mine suggests that I would do better in the higher stake games because of my skill level. I feel that if I can't beat the small limit games how on earth can I beat higher limit games. My confidence is gone and I think it would affect my game if I ever went to play at the casino again. What do you think about all of this? Should I reconsider my skill level and keep plugging away at the small limit stuff.

I think you are right and your friend is wrong.

There is a common fallacy that goes something like this: “I can’t beat the really low-limit games because the players are so bad. They don’t play at all by the book. I could be better off to move up in limits so that the players would be more predictable and then I will win.”

My answer usually is: “If you cannot beat players that are not really trying very hard do you expect to beat players that ARE trying?”

It may, in fact, be more difficult to beat the micro-limit games in the short run but have them be more profitable in the long run. Huh? Suppose for a moment that you are at a ten player table. You know that EVERY PLAYER at the table (except you) will call ALL BETS and will raise ONLY with the nuts. Now consider a table where the players aren’t particularly skilled but they are trying their best. Which table do you want to play at? I want to play at the table where everybody calls everything. It will be a wild ride because every crazy-backdoor-pull-cards-out-of-yer-butt draw will get there on the river. But it will be wildly profitable in the long run. So, you might have only a 55% chance of winning in a single session but over the long haul you will make a killing. High variance – high profit. Mason Malmuth taught be this: Some of the most profitable gambles are also the highest variance. This is typical of low-limit poker.

So… stay at low-limit. My rule of thumb to people is “book 100 hours and if you are profitable at that point then move on up.” I think that is a realistic guideline and an acceptable judge of your skill level.

DJP

Not an expert answer here, but another option. When I start having a bad run of online losses, I usually switch to freerolls to burn off steam. And something else I learned the hard way is never play tired. Or if you are upset over anything at the time. Wife, kids, job, whatever. When your freeroll game picks up, then switch back to money games. Good luck.

tpfelt

Like DJP, I can't be classified as an expert, but I think the key is that you have to adjust your play. The same style you use at the live 5-10 table is probably not going to work at .5/1 online. I'm not quite wise enough to suggest what changes might be appropriate, but if your starting hands and play style are the same as they are at the 5/10 table, you might want to take a close look at your game.

tp.

MiamiKeith

tpfelt wrote:

Like DJP, I can't be classified as an expert, but I think the key is that you have to adjust your play. The same style you use at the live 5-10 table is probably not going to work at .5/1 online. I'm not quite wise enough to suggest what changes might be appropriate, but if your starting hands and play style are the same as they are at the 5/10 table, you might want to take a close look at your game.

tp.

This is a great point. I have seen a lot of people who can beat bigger games but can't beat a smaller game. Usually, the problem is that they are used to playing the bigger game, and are playing a style that works for that game. But they get so used to playing that style, that they don't stop and think about what they have to do differently when the texture of the game that they are in changes. I have seen people at $5/$10 at Brantford (while waiting to get onto a bigger game) try a check-raise bluff on the turn with a scary-looking board, and then bet out on the river, only to get called down by a marginal hand like top pair no kicker. Well, maybe this move will work enough to be profitable at $10/$20, but at the $5/$10 game, most of the players have never folded top pair and never will.

Keith