Tell me what I want to hear...

Ok, you don't have to tell me what I want to hear but I'd love to hear some thoughts that disagree with me here and why.

NLHE Live tournament held by the West Side Poker Club.  Excellent tournament by the way.  Info:

40 Players remain out of the 90 that started
Buy-in $40 plus max of 2 $20 re-buys and one $20 add-on.  stpboy has $60 invested.
Bounty of $100 on stpboy (if not collected by level 15 the $100 goes to stpboy)
Average stack: 17K
stpboy stack: 22,500

Generally, I felt awesome.  I've made moves at the correct times and have made some excellent reads on my opponents.  I'd like to last until the end of level 15 but would much rather win this tournament, it is now Level 13.  I've slowly biult my stack up without any big chip confrontations, which I typically like to avoid.

Now the situation. 

stpboy: JJ UTG
Brad "two three" UTG +2:  ??

I've played with Brad several times and know him to be a fairly aggressive player, he'll push pretty much with any two.  In sayiing that, he doesn't usually push me around.  I guess he respects my game enough to only push with hands he thinks are good at the time.  I was recently knocked out by him in a tournament when he had AK, I had QQ and the board came AKQJA.  It's still fresh in my mind but I'm over it.  Brad is the only player at the table that can eliminate me from the tournament. 

Blinds 500/1000 (100 ante)
Action:  stpboy raises to 3125 total
Brad "two three" re-raises agressively all in.  He takes all of his chips very quickly and puts them into the middle of the table, counting them out loud "25,000 chips".  It was clear he had me covered.  Everyone else folds.  I watch Brad.  Sip of beer, sip of beer, sip sip.  Tap the beer with his ring, look at me then look away.  Brad starts talking with the player to his left (away from me), looking and speaking jovially.  He's breathing heavily.  A million things about this raise make me feel like he does not, absolutely does not have AA, KK, QQ.  At the time I stake my life on this read.  I say outloud, "It's either a race or I have you dominated".  Somehow saying this outloud made it more real, I was right.  So how can I fold a hand that is either dominating or a race?  I've made it this far without any significant all-in's, sure there was one early with 1800 chips but that was in the re-buy period.  Should I continue to chip away or should I take the plunge and go for it?  5 hours of poker for one hand that may be a gamble.  I'm not feeling pressure from the blinds or my opponents.

What I want you to tell me:  If you are 100% sure you are either a race or significantly ahead in this situation, you have to call. 

What I want you to tell me:  Why the above statement is wrong. 

I know, people question their bustouts.  I'm fairly certain that I made the right move.  Everyone knows what Brad had.....

stp

Comments

  • I'd say collecting your bounty sways the decision so that it's +EV to fold here. You aren't taken a critical hit to your stack by letting go of the hand, and looks like you're still in good chip position relative to the other players in the tournament, and especially the ones at your table.

    When I figure I'm going into a race, I'd like to be the one pushing my opponent into making a decision to join me. I don't like to be the one making the call.
  • I've made it this far without any significant all-in's, sure there was one early with 1800 chips but that was in the re-buy period
    Hmmm. Sounds interesting....

    You're getting around 1.4-1 on your money with a hand you figure you're at least 50% to win. #1 it's Brad. #2 lots of guys are looking to gamble it up to take you out.

    I call but of course I lose on the river to a total lucksack who hits perfect perfect for the gutshot. But that's me.

    I'm guessing it was a horrendous bad beat. Westside is rigged. Good thing I'm not a bitter person.
  • Hork might be right. On the one hand you trust your read and figure you're haead, but on the other hand Brad isn't as crazy as he likes people to think and i give him credit for something here to put in that many chips aginast a player he has to assume has a strong hand (and with many players behind him), so I'm not sure you have him dominated as often here as you might hope (maybe TT?). One would have to make some guesses and do some math to be sure but i think it's close enough that I can't fault you either way when you count in the bounty. Without the bounty it's a great read and call for sure, but the bounty seems to make it unclear. I think I would still call and take my shot at winning the damn thing though.
  • I"d call.

    1. Because it is braad.
    2. Because it is braad.
    3. Any hand where you are either racing or dominating is a good position to get in.

    And Braad isn't as crazy as everyone believes, but he is aggressive.

    Let me guess you called and he hit his 2 3 offsuit to take you out.
  • I appreciate your comments and have wondered if I'd make the same call again. I'm just thinking that if I am positive that I can put him on one of 6 hands (AK, AQ, 10's, 9's, 8's and possibly 7's) while I'm holding JJ and If I was to lay it down that means the only hands I can really play without getting pushed off of are AA and KK. I really didn't want the fact that I had a bounty on me to sway my decision. I believe I still made the right one. I just couldn't fold knowing that he didn't have me beat. He flipped over AK and hit a boat, it was over early.

    stp
  • i have done some more thinking about this since you asked me yesterday. You asked if i would make the same call or not. I thought i would only because it was Brad because he is aggressive and you had a read on him and it was a pretty big over bet. That is one part of my game that is lacking is being able to read, i rely more on my cards and the information i have gathered about their style of play. I now think with the chip stack you had and even though you thought you had him or a race with the only person that can put you out it might be too risky, he could suck out on you. You were playing very well from what i saw and i think you needed to let that one go. If you thought that you needed to get lucky to win the tournament then go for it but if you think you are one of the better players i would wait until later in the tournament. I think you were one of the better players and could eaten up the rest of the table and worried about Brad later.
    But this is advice from a player who make alot of final tables but never wins and has been eliminating so many times holding pocket jacks!
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