.50/$1 NL - all-in with trips?
I'm finishing up clearing out a bonus at PokerRoom playing 0.50/1.00 NL. I bought into the table for $70, and after an hour or so I'd worked it up to $100 when the following hand occurred.
BB - Hero - $100
UTG - Villain $200
UTG bets $2.50, called by MP, CO, and button. I have :9h :9s, so I call from the BB. 5 to the flop, pot is $13.
Flop is :9d :2h :ks . I lead out with an $8 bet (2/3 pot), UTG cold-calls, everyone else folds. Pot is $29.
Turn is :10d . I raise to $15 (1/2 pot), UTG instantly raise to $100, which puts me all-in.
My read of UTG is solid. He's showed good cards (some speculative hands, but only got to show-down when he'd hit), and PT shows him as TPA (15% VPIP, PFR .9, PF Aggr infinite).
His read of me is either TAP or possibly TPP. I've only shown good hands, and I have folded a few hands to re-raises when I was the aggressor (I'm a tad tight). Based on his play and some of his chat, I assume he knows what he's doing. From this I extrapolate that he knows I have good cards and that I know he plays good cards, and he also knows I can make big lay-downs.Â
Something he doesn't know but that was gnawing at me is that I lost $45 with trip 2's to trip 6's on a 6-high rainbow flop yesterday. Then tonight my trip 10's got beaten by trip Q's for another $50, so I'm feeling a little snake-bitten about having a middle set. This hand would be more than double that, and this player seems more solid than the others I donated to.
In the 15 seconds or so I had to think, I went through the range of hands:
AA, KK, AK - possible, but unlikely due to pre-flop betting
Kx diamonds - possible
10-10 - possible, but again unlikely
A2s - possible, and raise would match that (but pushing with it is doubtful unless it's A2 diamonds)
9-10s - matches the pre-flop action, and the push when he hit 2 pair
JQs - matches pre-flop and push with straight
Any comments about the hand, specifically betting, any other likely hands I may be missing (or if my quick-analysis is off), and what my play should be.
BB - Hero - $100
UTG - Villain $200
UTG bets $2.50, called by MP, CO, and button. I have :9h :9s, so I call from the BB. 5 to the flop, pot is $13.
Flop is :9d :2h :ks . I lead out with an $8 bet (2/3 pot), UTG cold-calls, everyone else folds. Pot is $29.
Turn is :10d . I raise to $15 (1/2 pot), UTG instantly raise to $100, which puts me all-in.
My read of UTG is solid. He's showed good cards (some speculative hands, but only got to show-down when he'd hit), and PT shows him as TPA (15% VPIP, PFR .9, PF Aggr infinite).
His read of me is either TAP or possibly TPP. I've only shown good hands, and I have folded a few hands to re-raises when I was the aggressor (I'm a tad tight). Based on his play and some of his chat, I assume he knows what he's doing. From this I extrapolate that he knows I have good cards and that I know he plays good cards, and he also knows I can make big lay-downs.Â
Something he doesn't know but that was gnawing at me is that I lost $45 with trip 2's to trip 6's on a 6-high rainbow flop yesterday. Then tonight my trip 10's got beaten by trip Q's for another $50, so I'm feeling a little snake-bitten about having a middle set. This hand would be more than double that, and this player seems more solid than the others I donated to.
In the 15 seconds or so I had to think, I went through the range of hands:
AA, KK, AK - possible, but unlikely due to pre-flop betting
Kx diamonds - possible
10-10 - possible, but again unlikely
A2s - possible, and raise would match that (but pushing with it is doubtful unless it's A2 diamonds)
9-10s - matches the pre-flop action, and the push when he hit 2 pair
JQs - matches pre-flop and push with straight
Any comments about the hand, specifically betting, any other likely hands I may be missing (or if my quick-analysis is off), and what my play should be.
Comments
So, you're getting 1.5:1 on your money roughly.... not great odds.
I can see that raise preflop with JQsuited, 10-10, and maybe AK.
However, I don't like the post flop action for KK, he would not just call with KK I think if there was a draw out there, and he was aggressive. That means to me, he's made a dumb call to the gutshot, but hit it and is now afraid of the diamonds, or he's called hoping you didn't have the K and hit his 10 on the turn. I think the best case scenario for you here, is he may have had something like J-Q diamonds and was calling the $8 into the $21 pot to see if he could catch some outs (though this is a bad play I think).
 Again, i wasn't at the table here, so I don't know the fella. I give him credit when he makes a bet of what is essentially $76 at a pot of $44. I think you're beat, and if you've got outs to your boat, you're not getting the odds to make it worthwhile (10 outs for boat / quads, 46 cards left, basically 3.5:1 is needed, and this is assuming he doesn't have 1010).
Mark
Wow... good thing I reviewed this post, I read / wrote as soon as I got up, and realized I made a lot of mistakes.. BBC_Z would have had a field day.
If we're wrong and he has the higher set, then "nh!" and pull out another $100 bill from your pocket, of which you should have many for making this call repeatedly in the long run.
Mark
I'm leaning towards call on this one.
I don't play a lot of NL but his bet seems out of place to me, it looks like he wants to punish drawing hands, I'd call...maybe put him on top pair or 2 pair, maybe KQ, KT, 9T?
I couldn't give him trip 10's or K's since his pre-flop was so small and he was only calling after that (ducks maybe). I also didn't give him credit for JQs, since his bet was so large - it screamed "don't call me". I put him on 9-10s which hit 2 pair, or AQd for the flush/gutshot draw. I called, and he flipped over :9c :10c. The river was :jc (good thing he didn't have the other hand I read him for
The interesting part of this hand is that he seemed genuinely surprised when he saw my hand. He thought he was good, and he intentionally overbet to make it look like a bluff and induce a call. So he was trying to trap me, and I fell for it, it just turns out I had the better hand (I don't know what he thought I had, maybe AK?).Â
Trying not to be results-oriented, I just wasn't sure if this was a good call (even though I won) since there were a number of likely hands which had me beat. I'm also wondering how I should rate my call considering the fact that he actually was trying to induce a call and I did what he wanted.
What do you think that he though you had? Pocket Pair, King-X?