Playing to win vs. Making the Money
Hey folks, I had an interesting situation arise the other day, and was wondering what people would think. I played a fifty dollar buy in event here in London with about 40 players beginning. I make the final table with a slightly above average chip stack. After losing some smallish pots, I get hammered when my AK runs into QQ. I am down to 800 chips which is not even enough for the big blind. The next hand I pick up 5s4s and push it in. There are three people in the pot. I hit a 5 on the flop, and another on the river to triple up. Next hand I pick up A6, and again push it in. There are three people in the pot, and I somehow make a straight to triple up again. I have about 7600 after all of this. The blinds pass me, and I am on the button with about 6100 when the following occurs.
Now, I can't remember specifically how many chips each player had, but I'm not sure it's totally important.
Basically, before the action gets to me three players have moved all in, including the chip leader who is immediately on my right. Most of these guys have been drinking all day, and have proven repeatedly that while they enjoy a good game of poker, they certainly love to gamble to. My feeling is that at least one or two of these guys are just attracted to the fun and excitement of everybody getting all their money in and could have about anything. Conversely, the chip leader, while overvalueing some hands, has shown herself to be a fairly crafty player, and is certainly no dummy. Here's where it gets complicated for me.
I look down to find two black Kings.
If three of these players bow out to the chip leader, I am in a much better spot to make the money and get at least a 3X return on my investment. Conversely, if I move in with the pack, and win the hand, I will be in contention to win the whole thing which is something in the area of 15X my investment. These tourney's really favour the winner, who typically takes half the pool or better.
Ultimately, I elected to push with the pack, ended up being 88 vs. QQ vs. AA(chip leader), and my KK.
nobody improves, and the chip leader is now virtually indestructible.
So there was a part of me that really wanted to fold here. I was wondering what others would do in this situation. Would you take the easier road to the money, or risk it all for a shot at the title?
Sorry for the longishness of the post....
Now, I can't remember specifically how many chips each player had, but I'm not sure it's totally important.
Basically, before the action gets to me three players have moved all in, including the chip leader who is immediately on my right. Most of these guys have been drinking all day, and have proven repeatedly that while they enjoy a good game of poker, they certainly love to gamble to. My feeling is that at least one or two of these guys are just attracted to the fun and excitement of everybody getting all their money in and could have about anything. Conversely, the chip leader, while overvalueing some hands, has shown herself to be a fairly crafty player, and is certainly no dummy. Here's where it gets complicated for me.
I look down to find two black Kings.
If three of these players bow out to the chip leader, I am in a much better spot to make the money and get at least a 3X return on my investment. Conversely, if I move in with the pack, and win the hand, I will be in contention to win the whole thing which is something in the area of 15X my investment. These tourney's really favour the winner, who typically takes half the pool or better.
Ultimately, I elected to push with the pack, ended up being 88 vs. QQ vs. AA(chip leader), and my KK.
nobody improves, and the chip leader is now virtually indestructible.
So there was a part of me that really wanted to fold here. I was wondering what others would do in this situation. Would you take the easier road to the money, or risk it all for a shot at the title?
Sorry for the longishness of the post....
Comments
Red
We can put people on ranges to help estimate your chances of winning the hand. It is quite possible you are up against some low to medium pocket pairs from the first guy in. You could also see some weak to strong Aces from the first two in. I would expect the third guy in to have a fairly strong hand but KK is the second strongest you can get so I don't know how fearful I'd be.
The first guy in could be on a big range if he's desperate. Let's give him a hand somewhere in 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,A5o+,K9o+.
The second guy, you would expect to have a slightly better hand, again depending on how desperate he was. We would expect something in the range of 77+,ATo+,K9s+,QJs,A8s+,KJo+.
The big stack might be harder to pin down, depending on the size of her stack compared to the others. She might just be happy to get in there with a worse hand with the chance to put a couple of drunks out. To be on the safe side, though, let's give her a tighter range if she's the third one in. Expect something like TT+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+.
Put that all together, we see:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.4089 % 48.57% 00.84% { KK }
Hand 2: 14.6446 % 14.03% 00.61% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, A5o+, K9o+ }
Hand 3: 15.6532 % 14.81% 00.85% { 77+, A8s+, K9s+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 4: 20.2933 % 19.19% 01.10% { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Now, we can quibble over the ranges but I think you can see the picture. You are putting in something on the order of a quarter of the chips with almost a 50% chance to win the pot. If you are desperate for chips and winning it all is important, I don't think you can afford to let this hand go. Also keep in mind, if your stacks are larger than any of the others that are eliminated, you move up in the finish order. Not sure if that matters at this point, though.
Who dealt these cards, anyway???
I had about 6100 remaining, with blinds at 500 and 1000. So I had 6 big blinds left, but like I said, I was on the button and in theory would have 5 hands to wait for something better than two kings. In terms of my stack size in relation, I was not the lowest, but not the highest, I would not have moved up far enough to make the money when only four pay out.
I guess in retrospect maybe folding was the right play, but at the heart of my post was a question about whether people found it more important to win than take perhaps an easier road to the money. Maybe I should have been more clear about that. The chip leader to my right, while playing well in my opinion had also gotten to where she was by being lucky, and having her hands hold up in vulnerable situations. She had been all in with AK diamonds against Aces and made a straight for example, and also had been the one who outraced my AK with QQ. So there was no guarantee that anyone had Aces, although it was highly likely given the situation.
I have been working hard and playing more and more tournaments recently, both online and live, and my results have been pretty good in terms of me improving in my opinion. I have made more final tables, had some second place finishes, and finished in the money with increasing frequency. I have not however, had one of those DING DING DING moments and have not ever won anything, and I am really out for that. In this case, I saw a situation where I could really go after that goal.
I don't think there is ever a situation where KK is an easy lay down, and I'm defiintely not one to shy away from folding a hand if I think it's correct. I've played enough hands to have seen that Poker is world of probabilities and not absolutes.
Anyway, thanks for the responses, in the future, I'll try to leave the results out.
pkrfce, what program did you use to put together the math.
Cheers
I used pokerstove on this. Available as a free download. Didn't let it run to the end as it would take all day given the range of hands but the numbers weren't changing much after a couple of hundred million hands.
Exactly my thinking.
If I think I can outplay the chipleader (or the other players still involved after this hand), I'll fold the KK. With 3 people all in, I may have equity in the pot if I enter, but I'm not a favourite over the rest of the hands combined. Plus if there's an AA in there, I'm screwed. With 3 players willing to put their money in, the chance of AA increase. Yes, it may be a good spot to gain chips, but it's also a good spot to go broke. I'd rather try to push with position and steal some more blinds to stay alive and combat for a spot at the top.
If the other players are even in skill or better than me (most tournaments) I'll call and hope. Also, if everyone is shortstacked, making it unlikely that I can steal enough blinds to stay afloat, then I'll call here as well.
M of about 4. 2nd best hand in HE. Tons of other desperate stacks. You're not on the bubble yet. This is an absolute no-brainer call IMO. Even IF someone has AA, if it's not the chip leader and you have them covered you still stand to win a decent side pot.
Still and extremely tough decision though.
The money is VERY top heavy. Our hero only has 6 x BB left. Our hero may have a dominant hand. If somone does have AA then our hero is still getting 3-1 on the call.
I sprain my wrist shoving my chips into the pot.
Then, later, a think about it. But, I think I stay with the play.