Tournament situation - what should I do?

Furfy

This situation came up in an online tournament I was playing the other night.....

3000 starting chips, blinds starting at 25/50 and going up every FIVE minutes.

Blinds are currently 100/200 and I'm in the BB with 850 chips. I've taken a few beats already and the blinds are so aggressive I need to look for something soon. My BB hand is :ad :jd. Someone in mid position calls, cutoff seat raises to 800, and button raises all in to 3100. Small Blind folds.

What do I do? I'm positive I'm beat right now, but do I take my chances considering my stack and the blinds? Am I going to see a better hand than this?

ScoobyD

Easy push. You're getting better than 3:1 with no chips left and a decent multiway hand. The structure is insane, so I'd probably be calling in that spot with a lot worse hands than AJs.

Hobbes

Push it all in.
with 850 in chips left, you aren't much of a threat at this point.
Try and double up.

Hobbes

Furfy

Well, that was obviously my instinct, but should I still factor the odds into it if I'm figuring I have only one live card (the jack) and possibly also up against a pair higher than it?

I'm getting over 3-1, and could come close to getting 4 times my $$ back if I win, when you factor the 1st caller (eventually folded) and the SB, but I'm essentially saying that I KNOW I need 3 cards to win (flush or straight). So am I better served waiting for a weaker hand, and maybe heads up where both cards are live.

My advice would be to push too, mathematically, but logistically does it make sense is this specific situation?

ScottyZ

1. What are the stack sizes of the mid-position limper, and the cutoff?

2. What is the payout structure, and how many players remain in the tourney?

3. Why are you "positive I'm beat right now", and what does this mean exactly? Is the button an exceptionally tight player? Does "beat" mean the button could have 22, or do you mean that you believe you are currently dominated by the button's hand?

ScottyZ

Furfy

1. Mid position limper has me outchipped but not enough to call the button all in. I'm anticipating a fold from him (he does fold). Cutoff has the button outchipped by about 2X.

2. Top 40 pay out - 180 left.

ScottyZ

2. Top 40 pay out - 180 left.

Call.

Forget the rest of my questions.

ScottyZ

specialK

easy push. AJd and you're getting better than 3-1 on your money. with so few chips and already 1/5 of your stack comitted by your BB I think you have to call and hope for the best. i call, but if you could fold you have the upside of getting some free hands soon. what ended up happening?

Flint Bones

Push. What else can you wait for. There is no guarantee you'll see anything better.

SirWatts

Stick it in, you're likely screwed either way unfortunately but this is the better option.

Irish31

Agreed. You really need to push, the fact that you are suited would do it for me, let alone the fact you may very well not see a better hand anytime soon.

I would assume you are beat pre flop easily but what other hand are you waiting for?


Jay

ScottyZ

SirWatts wrote:

...you're likely screwed either way unfortunately but this is the better option.

Wrong thread I think.

http://pokerforum.ca/forum/index.php?topic=7624

ScottyZ

Furfy

Thanks for the opinions. Normally my decision-making is pretty bang on, regardless of whether it works out or not, but this one really had me thinking, which is why I posted it in the first place.

Bottom line on what I did.....I decided to fold. The mid position limper folded (later said he had KJ offsuit) and the cutoff seat called. Cutoff shows :as :kd and button shows :qd :qc.

Queens held up. I won a small pot on an all in with pocket 7's and survived a little longer but not enough to make the money.

Sure, it was the right call in that specific situation, but factoring in that I was sure I was losing to both, would you guys all stiil push?

ScottyZ

Sure, it was the right call in that specific situation, but factoring in that I was sure I was losing to both, would you guys all stiil push?

First of all, it is incredibly confusing the use the word "call" as a synonym for "decision" when you are talking about poker.

To answer the question, of course not. Knowing the opponents held exactly AK and QQ, calling would be foolish.

However, this demonstrates that calling is a mistake in the sense of the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, and not necessarily a true mistake.

Also, it depends on what you mean exactly by "sure you are losing to both". For example, here is an example where you are "losing" to both players, in the sense that you are not the favorite to win the hand. However, knowing that your opponents held these exact cards a call would be the (FTOP) correct call.1

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1476913

pokenum -h ad jd - 8c 8d - kd jc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Jd 487551 35.57 864680 63.08 18523 1.35 0.362
8c 8d 580808 42.37 783652 57.17 6294 0.46 0.425
Jc Kd 283872 20.71 1068359 77.94 18523 1.35 0.213

ScottyZ

1Assuming the initial raiser will (at least) call the re-raise.

Dave Scharf

Given the tournament structure (5 minute levels) I am going to play A-J suited almost no matter what.

Two things will happen (in my experience) -- First, everyone will be playing looser than usual making your A-J better than usual. Second, in these games people start to play "waiting game" near the bubble. It is as GROSS tactic, but they love to do it. You need to have ammo when the games grinds to a halt or you will get blinded off.