Check-raise turn semi-bluff vs. a TAG

ScoobyD

Spewing or good, aggressive play? Thoughts appreciated. Not what I'd consider a "typical" move for me (since I find most "moves" are a waste at LLHE). Table has gotten fairly tight as of late, steals and blind defenses is getting to be the norm. I've already seen villain 3 bet a MP to LP open raise (with position), and feel like it could be a re-steal attempt with a hand like a middle pair, suited broadway, etc. Of course it could also be a legit monster, but think his 3 betting range has "probably" opened up vs a likely steal raise since I've seen this a 2-3 times in the last couple orbits. Villain's stats are 14/11/2.25 over 77 hands.

***** Hand History for Game 3349515125 *****
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, January 10, 20:19:54 EDT 2006
Table Table 81375 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: AA__Jim__AA ( $274 )
Seat 3: yamah47 ( $185.50 )
Seat 5: elenor1 ( $198 )
Seat 8: RWL420 ( $110.50 )
Seat 10: Nordheimer ( $212.50 )
Seat 4: mrbaaadbeat ( $118 )
Seat 9: ScoobD ( $296 )
Seat 7: cfrpete ( $159.50 )
Seat 1: DKeselman ( $108 )
Seat 6: letsply25 ( $150 )
yamah47 posts small blind [$1].
mrbaaadbeat posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [ As Th ]
elenor1 folds.
cfrpete folds.
RWL420 folds.
ScoobD raises [$6].
DKeselman raises [$9].
AA__Jim__AA folds.
yamah47 folds.
mrbaaadbeat folds.
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Kc, Js ]
ScoobD checks.
DKeselman bets [$3].
ScoobD calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
ScoobD checks.
DKeselman bets [$6].
ScoobD raises [$12].

Hobbes

Probably should have folded at the turn.
You aren't getting pot odds to call a gutshot, so I think your beat at that point.
Fold it..

Hobbes

SirWatts

I don't realy like it it looks a lot like a bluff when the 3rd spade hits, and the turn CR is the most common bluff line in this spot.  You have to fire again on the river too if he calls so you'd need a better read on him imo to know he's capable of making tough folds before putting in 3 bets like this is a good idea.  

ScoobyD

Probably should have folded at the turn.
You aren't getting pot odds to call a gutshot, so I think your beat at that point.

I'm getting 5:1 to call on the turn and I also picked up the nut flush draw to go with my gutshot. Plus I don't really know if TAG has much of a hand or not as I'd expect him to bet any flop, and obviously my call doesn't look overly strong there.

I don't realy like it it looks a lot like a bluff when the 3rd spade hits

Agreed, and if he realized I was an aggressive player I think he should have figured I'd have done more than check-call with a flush draw on the flop. What line do you guys take on this then? Just fold on the flop with the small pot? I figured with the gutshot and backdoor flush draw (and an overcard) I probably have somewhere around 5.5-6 outs, so I have something like a 7:1 draw and I'm getting 8.5:1 from the pot, which should give me enough to peel one. Plus I just didn't want to turtle for one small bet whenever I get 3-bet preflop or I figure people might start taking shots whenever I'm stealing (or raising in steal position). I knew I had odds to at least call the turn, but figured a C/R had a reasonable chance of taking it down right there (if he doesn't have a K or a big spade it's a fairly tough call at that point IMO). Although getting 3 bet sucks pretty bad there too, but I figure that's only going to happen from a made flush or a set (possibly KJ as well). Alternative lines welcome guys...

BBC Z

Standard.

You are raising for a free showdown and you also get the chance to get your bet in on the river when your hand improves. Combine that with the small amount of fold equity on the turn and it's good.

Now, the problem is that TAG doesn't really mean anything with respect to postflop play other than villian bets a lot. I'd look at the WtSD and W$Wtsd stats to judge his ability to fold.

ScoobyD

TAG doesn't really mean anything with respect to postflop play other than villian bets a lot. I'd look at the WtSD and W$Wtsd stats to judge his ability to fold.

Agreed, something else to pay attention to in GT+. I think for some reason I had some 2 + 2 article stuck in my head of "taking advantage of the multitabling TAGs on autopilot" and this seemed like an opportune time. FWIW, villian did, in fact, fold the turn.

BBC Z

ScoobyD wrote:

TAG doesn't really mean anything with respect to postflop play other than villian bets a lot. I'd look at the WtSD and W$Wtsd stats to judge his ability to fold.

Agreed, something else to pay attention to in GT+. I think for some reason I had some 2 + 2 article stuck in my head of "taking advantage of the multitabling TAGs on autopilot" and this seemed like an opportune time. FWIW, villian did, in fact, fold the turn.

Any time I try and apply things I read on 2+2, I get destroyed. Glad to hear it actually does work sometimes.

SirWatts

BBC Z wrote:

Standard.

You are raising for a free showdown and you also get the chance to get your bet in on the river when your hand improves. Combine that with the small amount of fold equity on the turn and it's good.

Now, the problem is that TAG doesn't really mean anything with respect to postflop play other than villian bets a lot. I'd look at the WtSD and W$Wtsd stats to judge his ability to fold.

Hero checkraised this isn't a free showdown raise. having position is completely different.

BBC Z

You should know by now that I don't read the OP. I just use a poker generator to create my responses.

ScoobyD

Hero checkraised this isn't a free showdown raise. having position is completely different.

So you'd raise with position (and a free showdown) but just check-call otherwise? Or just saying that from the limited information on villian that the C/R semibluff is risking too much for too little? I think IF I'm called on the turn (which I wasn't so sure I would be) I can assume I'm behind and check-fold the river UI. I guess I thought that I'd probably get a fold on the turn often enough to make the raise +EV.

SirWatts

I would just call the turn and fold the river UI in this case, in position raising has more value and is probably correct if you think you can fold out a small pair. The problem again is you have to fire the river unimproved IMO because 66 with a flush draw will be calling your turn raise but will fold the river pretty often so you're committing a lot to a bluff. With a good read that the opponent is capable of folding this might be ok every once in a while so long as you have a solid image, but I rarely have enough experience with my opponents online to give them that much credit.