3-6 hand Headsup vs. LAG (sort of)

Villian's stats are 68/39/1.80. In general, post-flop he tends to be passive when somebody else takes the lead (calling down with all sorts of weak made hands, weak or no draws), but if checked to, he'll bet the same hands he'd call with. Basically one of those guys that will bet the whole way unless someone else shows some aggression.

The hand:

Texas Hold'em $3-$6 (real money), hand #1,663,780,700
Table Praha, 2 Jan 2006 11:00 PM ET

Seat 1: TonyClifton0 ($145.80 in chips)
Seat 2: SeanTh0rnton ($75.00 in chips)
Seat 3: slikb1122 ($167.60 in chips)
Seat 4: bandit888 ($224.95 in chips)
Seat 5: checkoutQQ ($145.50 in chips)
Seat 6: ScoobD [ AC,QH ] ($283.80 in chips)
Seat 7: Buster888 ($81.60 in chips)
Seat 8: pevx ($97.60 in chips)
Seat 9: monkeybot1 ($597.10 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
monkeybot1 posts blind ($1.50), TonyClifton0 posts blind ($3).

PRE-FLOP
SeanTh0rnton folds, slikb1122 folds, bandit888 bets $6, checkoutQQ folds, ScoobD bets $9, Buster888 folds, pevx folds, monkeybot1 folds, TonyClifton0 folds, bandit888 calls $3.

FLOP [board cards 8C,5S,2S ]
bandit888 bets $3, ScoobD bets $6, bandit888 calls $3.

TURN [board cards 8C,5S,2S,7C ]
bandit888 checks, ScoobD checks.

RIVER [board cards 8C,5S,2S,7C,6H ]
bandit888 bets $6, ScoobD ?

I figure it's an easy 3 bet iso raise preflop given his wide raising range preflop. The flop looked relatively ragged, and I saw villians donk bet as weakness here. I figure I might as well take the free card on the turn with position and I figure I'm good if either my A or Q hits. The real question is what to do UI on river... Is 6:1 enough to make an ace high call here given it's likely the turn action will get a bet out of villian regardless of what he holds?

Comments

  • I love that flop raise to buy the free card but I think what you really want to do is raise the flop, bet the turn and take the free showdown unimproved. He'll check the river to you and you can showdown for your 1 bet, AND it had the ability to protect your hand if you ARE ahead.

    Given the check on the turn, I wanna fold it on the river. Actually, theres a 4 card straight up there too, it's an easy fold as pretty much any card below a 9 beats you.

    I bet if you do the math on what hands are included in a 40% of the deck, you'll find it to be -EV. Villian has told you nothing about his hand, so you can't tighten his range any more than that.
  • To me it looks like the Villian may have put you on the flush draw and is trying to buy the pot. However, as BBC said there is the straight possibility.

    I agree with BBC on the flop play. I would have put a bet out on the turn to to really see where I was at. I think the check let the villian know you were weak.

    In the end I grudgingly fold.
  • I love that flop raise to buy the free card but I think what you really want to do is raise the flop, bet the turn and take the free showdown unimproved.

    In hindsight I think I liked this line best too.  My big worry is opening myself up to a bluff-raise on the turn, but against this specific opponent's post-flop tendencies, it didn't look like he was that aggro post-flop.  Ie. he'd call with crap or a weaker made hand here and most likely check to me on the river, he'd check-raise a strong hand, but I don't think a big check-raise bluff would be likely.  This hand would have been a real pain in the ass OOP (ie if I'd 3 bet from the blinds) since I'm always going to face a bet from my opponent.

    I guess I looked at it with the 4 card straight on the board as I can only beat high cards here, but vs. a habitual bluffer, and the fact I showed weakness on the turn I can assume villian would bet the river here with a pretty wide range.  I'm guessing that given I'm getting 6:1, there probably still isn't enough hands that I can call and beat to make a river call profitable.

    That being said I still made a non-typical ace high call here...

    Results below (in white):

    SHOWDOWN
    bandit888 shows [ 10C,JC ]
    ScoobD shows [ AC,QH ]
    ScoobD wins $43.50.
  • Results below (in white):

    SHOWDOWN
    bandit888 shows [ 10C,JC ]
    ScoobD shows [ AC,QH ]
    ScoobD wins $43.50.

    Oh, in that case it's an easy call. We must remember to always be results oriented around here.
  • We must remember to always be results oriented around here.

    Touche. The short-term results were good, but I still don't know if these types of calls are long run +EV. I suspect not, and hence why I posted. In general, I would tend to be more willing to make an A high call on a less coordinated board (probably paired with lower cards) since those types of boards would be less likely to have connected with the opponent's hand, as opposed to this nightmarish garbage board that has connected with basically any card under a 9 (as previously stated).
  • Once you check the turn I think you have to call the river on almost any card. You beat any 2 broadway except AK which seems unlikely since he didn't cap preflop. 6:1 is plenty of odds. I agree that you should be betting the turn since he doesn't seem like the type to bluff raise you, but just making sure you get to showdown with a marginal hand isn't terrible against an aggressive player.
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