What would you have done?

MainEvent

First of all, Happy New Year to all of you on the forum! Wish you some good cards, monster pots and lovely tourney wins! 

Anywoo, this is a hand I came across in my tourney this morning :

PokerStars Game #3518879838: Tournament #17356500, Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2006/01/03 - 02:42:27 (ET)
Table '17356500 108' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: tricky1212 (23497 in chips)
Seat 2: krazyb832000 (42875 in chips)
Seat 3: prosper7 (24580 in chips)
Seat 4: Texas Oak (16960 in chips)
Seat 5: darlexab (17915 in chips)
Seat 6: Norton11 (6169 in chips)
Seat 7: Kracker II (16008 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero (24863 in chips)
Seat 9: spunk17j (34659 in chips)
tricky1212: posts the ante 75
krazyb832000: posts the ante 75
prosper7: posts the ante 75
Texas Oak: posts the ante 75
darlexab: posts the ante 75
Norton11: posts the ante 75
Kracker II: posts the ante 75
TME316: posts the ante 75
spunk17j: posts the ante 75
Texas Oak: posts small blind 600
darlexab: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[:kc :ac]
Norton11: folds
Kracker II: folds
Hero: raises 2400 to 3600
spunk17j: folds
tricky1212: raises 19822 to 23422 and is all-in
krazyb832000: folds
prosper7: folds
Texas Oak: folds
darlexab: folds
Hero: ????

Obviously, I want to win the tourney, I would still have a lot of chips left after this hand if I fold but an all-in win would guarentee me a better shot at a final table appearence and 1st place. What would do with a re-raise that big? He was playing a lot of pots, not really sure if he was pretty loose or just having good cards. Opinions on this would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks in advance!

MainEvent

roketinpoket

You'd probably have to fold it. It really depends on what his impression of you is and whether you want to come first or place. What happened?

BBC Z

NL hands without reads of the villian are impossible to disect.

IMHO, Call.

DrTyore

He may be a donk, but even donks get aces....

fold... no need to risk the other 20000 for the 3600 you put in. Patience, you'll get him.

Mark

Flint Bones

I'm thinking the dude has QQ or so.

Do you want to put your chips in when you are most likely 50/50?

I'd fold.

pkrfce9

Ya. More info. Has he made this move before? Often? Has he seen you lay down to a big raise? What's your image? His? Are you close to the money? What's your chip position relative to the average stack and big stacks? Lots of this stuff might change my impression of what he could be making this move with.

It looks like you are getting maybe 1.5 to 1 on your money. You only have to be afraid of AA or KK (in terms of odds)and I highly doubt he would want to chase you out with a hand that strong without more info on him. So maybe he has a decent pair or AK as well. He could also have a weaker Ace. You say you want to win. You haven't mentioned any concern about making the money. The money already in the pot, your stated goal and the strength of your cards demand a call. If making the money is important to you I would say fold what is likely a 50/50 shot given the lack of info.

beanie42

What's the buy-in? In low buy-in tournies I have seen this move frequently by really low pairs (66 or lower). Basically a semi-bluff gambling that you don't have a high pocket pair, and aren't willing to race for that many chips. In my opinion, they're right - even against 22 it's a coin-flip, and considering your chip-stack I think you can pick better spots - fold.

SirWatts

This is somewhat read dependant, but I think the default is call. Given that he's playing a lot of pots as your only read I'd definitely call and gambool it up, you're getting 1.5:1 and I don't think you'll see AA or KK often enough to warrant laying this down. Against a tight player you would want to fold here but it sounds like this guys range is a lot wider than AK, AA-QQ for example.

BBC Z

For everyone who wants to fold:

When do you ever play a hand? You can't wait around for Aces all day.

STR82ACE

I'm in agreement with BBC_Z here on this one. You're all right here, if he has aces he has aces, nothing you going to do about it.

CALL

beanie42

BBC Z wrote:

For everyone who wants to fold:

When do you ever play a hand?  You can't wait around for Aces all day.

Playing a hand is different from putting all your chips in play on a coin-flip pre-flop. To reverse the question, why would you ever want to risk your entire tournament on a coin-flip when you aren't under any blind or stack pressure?

BBC Z

beanie42 wrote:

BBC Z wrote:

For everyone who wants to fold:

When do you ever play a hand? You can't wait around for Aces all day.

Playing a hand is different from putting all your chips in play on a coin-flip pre-flop. To reverse the question, why would you ever want to risk your entire tournament on a coin-flip when you aren't under any blind or stack pressure?

To reverse the reversal, why do you assume it's a coin flip? Villian can hold AQ-ATs KQs.

Flint Bones

BBC Z wrote:

For everyone who wants to fold:

When do you ever play a hand? You can't wait around for Aces all day.

Give me a break. So you're saying you call with AK every single time? No matter what. For all your pontificating on this board that comes across as just stupid.

beanie42

BBC Z wrote:

To reverse the reversal, why do you assume it's a coin flip? Villian can hold AQ-ATs KQs.

Fair question.  Basically, I'd assume that if the villian has made it this far, he hasn't been lobotomized yet.  And considering the size of his stack, I would not expect to see anything less than AQs here (he might re-raise with A10s, but not push IMO).  My original supposition (low pockets) is rare as well, but far more frequent than seeing KQs push here.  Even still, assuming the guy is not a complete moron, take away some of the lower pairs I suggested and add in a few hands that you suggested (like AQs, AJs), I don't think you're a favorite often enough to make this call (without a specific read otherwise).

Now going backwards to my previous post, why would you assume that you are ahead?  And if you don't believe you are ahead with a significantly better hand, why would you be willing to take a coin-flip in this particular situation given the blinds/stacks?

pkrfce9

Interesting POV, Trevor.

Keep in mind, a shrewd player may also be considering how you would respond to his all-in move. If he thinks you'll fold everything but AA or KK, then he might just push with 23o. Something to think about.

Also, you don't have to be a favourite for this to be a +EV play. If you are a 48-52 dog and given 1.5-1 pot odds, this is very much a +EV play. If playing to win is your only goal, you should take the gamble in this case. I'd rather gamble with AKs here than something like 66.

Hork42

Call Call Call!!!!

Especially if this is Pokerstars.... Kings rule.

pkrfce9

But... he doesn't have Kings. He has AK. They don't rule nearly as well.

I checked. Against KK, you are a 2-1 underdog. Against AA you are a 8-1 underdog. So, even against KK you are almost getting correct odds for the call. The only hand to really crap your pants over is AA and since you have AK, there's only about a 2% chance anyone at your table has that. Not sure if that changes anyone's mind, though.

Hork42

He will flop a King, guaranteed.

pkrfce9

Oh, you're right. This is Stars.

BBC Z

Give me a break. So you're saying you call with AK every single time? No matter what. For all your pontificating on this board that comes across as just stupid.

YAWN. If disagree with my view, then give some reasons why. That''s the way that grownups communicate.

Now going backwards to my previous post, why would you assume that you are ahead?

While it appears that villian has a very large stack and can wait around for a very long time, his effect M is around 8 or 9. He's in the yellow zone and that next blind step puts him even farther down. He can easily be relying on fold equity to push you out of the pot (again, read specific).. OP is also in the yellow zone. Are we destined to have to wait until we get into the red zone in order to take a coin flip with an ease of mind? We're looking at 5-6 orbits of cards left. 60 hands or so. If we get a standard distribution, we may only see TT as our best hand and be locked into the flip with far less chips. If we double up with one quarter of the chips we hold now, we're still screwed as the blinds escalate and we have to flip again.. and again.. and again until we finally bust out.

Now, if we flip with big stacks we have the 55-45 or 50-50 or 45-55 shot at have a monster stack that gives us a ton of ways to play it. We probably wont need to flip again for a loooong time and if Hero is a good big stack player, maybe not until the final table.

I guess my point is that there are plenty of reasons for him to come after us without him having the rock solid monster AA that everyone seems to want to put him on. Maybe he noticed we're tight.. or that we're weak.. or that the sky is blue.

If we get 'caught' in a flip, its not the end of the world.

beanie42

pkrfce9 wrote:

So, even against KK you are almost getting correct odds for the call.

I guess that's my point and/or question.  In a tournament, how much do odds really matter?  If you are a 3-1 dog and getting 5-1 odds, do you call because the odds justify it?  Personally I don't think so, because tournies have no long-term, and your goal isn't EV, it's survival.  Just my opinion, but I'd be curious how some of the big tourney players (live/online) think.  I don't have a lot of "dings" yet, so to be honest, this is mainly theory for me right now.

Hork42

beanie42 wrote:

because tournies have no long-term, and your goal isn't EV

Bzzzt! and Bzzzzt!

If you're playing as if this is the only tournament you're ever going to play, then you can think about it that way...

But there are other tournaments, and there is a long term. The survival bit comes in as a 3rd element to weigh in as a factor, not as a replacement for +EV. If you weren't looking for EV, then you would not win any chips. Avoid close gambles in tournaments when you can, but don't pass up the opportunity to win chips when you're getting favourable odds. In the long run, this will catch up to you...

Flint Bones

BBC Z wrote:

Give me a break. So you're saying you call with AK every single time? No matter what. For all your pontificating on this board that comes across as just stupid.

YAWN. If disagree with my view, then give some reasons why. That''s the way that grownups

communicate.

I wasn't going to rehash everything Beanie already said. And your sarcasm is not needed. This from someone who consistantly posts one word responses.

Furthermore, you are looking at this hand in a CASH game mentality. In a cash game, I call. No question. I'll take the 50/50. In this situation. However, this is a tournament and the same rules do not apply. This deep into the tournament you do not want to risk your entire stack in this particular scneario. It wold be foolish.

I also never assume the villian has AA or KK. Even with QQ or JJ it is not a race you need to get into. Sure it pays off really well but the reward does not outway the risk. Again speaking in terms of Tournament play only. You stack is big enough to take the small hit of the raise.

DrTyore

BBC Z wrote:

YAWN. If disagree with my view, then give some reasons why. That''s the way that grownups communicate.

giggle-snort

<wipes away tears>

Ahhh irony.

Mark

ScoobyD

Sure it pays off really well but the reward does not outway the risk. Again speaking in terms of Tournament play only. You stack is big enough to take the small hit of the raise.

Sure your stack can "take the hit" of losing 3.6k on this hand of your roughly 20k left, but do you really want to be dumping away over 10% of your stack when your M < 10 on a situation that's more than likely a +EV call? I don't really consider a stack of 20k with blinds of 600-1200 to be very comfortable. Next blind level is probably something like 1k-2k? Leaving us with an M of probably close to 5 assuming 100 antes, which puts us nicely into the red zone now. How long till the next blind level? I'd agree with a bigger stack, laying down to an allin might be doable, but with only 20k chips left, I can't see folding this.

MainEvent

Thanks for everyone's point of vue! Very different and here's a little more info for you.

I was playing about 1 hand every 9 trying to steal the blinds every once in a while. I got Trips a couple of time and getting respect on my raises so I would assume that I was perceived as a tight agressif player.

This guy looked like he had a low pocket pair like 6's or 7's and a coin flip on this was what I was expecting. Not quite what I got!

This was indeed a low-level tourney on Stars, got to start somewhere

We were already in the money so to speak but just enough to payback the entry, I was looking at least the final table so obviously, I was looking to double up here.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [:kc :ac]
Norton11: folds
Kracker II: folds
Hero: raises 2400 to 3600
spunk17j: folds
tricky1212: raises 19822 to 23422 and is all-in
krazyb832000: folds
prosper7: folds
Texas Oak: folds
darlexab: folds
Hero: calls 19822
*** FLOP *** [Qh 2c Qs]
*** TURN *** [Qh 2c Qs] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [Qh 2c Qs 5s] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [Kc Ac] (two pair, Queens and Fives)
tricky1212: shows [:kh :ks] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
tricky1212 collected 49319 from pot
Hero said, "nh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 49319 | Rake 0
Board [Qh 2c Qs 5s 5d]
Seat 1: tricky1212 showed [Kh Ks] and won (49319) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 2: krazyb832000 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: prosper7 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Texas Oak (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: darlexab (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Norton11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Kracker II folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Hero showed [Kc Ac] and lost with two pair, Queens and Fives
Seat 9: spunk17j folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I was just looking for justification for calling this. I called and obviously didn't hit my Ace. I called and just didn't expect that hand, I was at least expecting 50/50.

I could have laid this down, I did think about it but I thought I had a better shot at it than what I got. Even a day later, I would still call!

Ah well!

pkrfce9

Well, then I guess he has a pathological fear of getting a bad beat from a weak Ace.

I ran the numbers against a broad range of hands discussed earlier that might make this play: 22+, AT+,KQ. With this scenario, you were a 57% favourite.

MainEvent

What I wanted to know is if anybody in this position would fold this hand, I would have a really hard time doing so. There was about 100 people left and I was about 25th in chips, so I was in a good shape but just saw that as a steal opportunity and I didn't think he had a good hand. At worst, I put him on the same hand I had AK or something like 6's, 7's or something like that.

pkrfce9

Apparently a bunch would fold.

I might fold but only if I was convinced he'd do this with AA or KK.