Can this hand be folded?

Monteroy

I found myself in an unusual situation with an apparent great hand, but facing a strange choice given the opponent.

The opponent in question had a VPIP of 86%, saw 91% of flops, went to a showdown 51% of the hands, had an aggression factor of 0.3 (basically none for non poker tracker people) and never raised once preflop in nearly 300 hands, and almost never bet or raised post flop.  He was running out of money though (he had dropped about $300 so far in 300ish hands) and even loose passives tend to get extra careless (and at times badly aggressive) as they approach zero.

The hand is the following

$2/$4 Texas Hold'em - Sunday, January 01, 15:16:07 EDT 2006
Table Bad Beat Jackpot #1106182 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 9: Monteroy ( $119 )
Seat 4: franscan ( $29.10 )
Seat 10: SupBroPwns ( $196.50 )
Seat 3: Dealum214 ( $120.95 )
Seat 5: bigticket100 ( $62 )
Seat 1: sdhl28 ( $222 )
Seat 8: JBH812 ( $126.50 )
Seat 2: Dirty_Daves ( $109.50 )
Seat 7: Rudbaeck ( $76 )
Seat 6: swdeee ( $130 )
bigticket100 posts small blind [$1].
swdeee posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Monteroy [  Qd Ad ]
Rudbaeck folds.
JBH812 calls [$2].
Monteroy raises [$4].
SupBroPwns folds.
sdhl28 folds.
Dirty_Daves folds.
Dealum214 folds.
franscan calls [$4].
bigticket100 folds.
swdeee folds.
JBH812 calls [$2].
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 8d, Qh ]
JBH812 checks.
Monteroy bets [$2].
franscan calls [$2].
JBH812 calls [$2].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
JBH812 checks.
Monteroy bets [$4].
franscan calls [$4].
JBH812 calls [$4].
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
JBH812 checks.
Monteroy bets [$4].
franscan raises [$8].
JBH812 folds.


There is $42 in the pot (after rake).  I ended up calling though I came very close to folding.  I think I basically called to see if I was right in that belief :P.

Given the opponent, would anyone be able to confidently fold top 2 pair here?  I called hoping he went runner runner 2 pair or had Q 5 or 8 2 , both of which were possible, but I also knew that 22 or 34 were quite possible as well. 

In the end, my gut screamed fold (as it does when extreme loose passives actually raise), but I called

Monteroy calls [$4].
franscan shows [ 3h, 4h ] a straight, ace to five.
Monteroy shows [ Qd, Ad ] two pairs, aces and queens.
franscan wins $46.50 from  the main pot  with a straight, ace to five.


Even with the results and the extreme loose passive nature of the opponent I am not sure if folding would be giving up value in the long run or not.  The hand baffled me I admit in that regard and comments are appreciated.  Franscan's luck ran out as it was bound to shortly after and he handed the rest of his money to the table (including me), so in the end it worked out as it usually does.

Hork42

I'd still call. Yes, the raise at the end from the LPP is concerning...In a limit game make the crying call when the pot is that big, especially when you close the action. Sometimes poor players THINK they have a good hand and you'll still win. I find that this is the case more than 1/10 times, I think it's still a profitable move.

BBC Z

Easy call.

Flint Bones

Folding would have been foolish. You can't put a guy on playing 3 4 into a raised pot. He's the fool. This time he got the money but he'll lose 85% of the time. Dude is a donk.

Monteroy

Flint Bones wrote:

Folding would have been foolish. You can't put a guy on playing 3 4 into a raised pot. He's the fool. This time he got the money but he'll lose 85% of the time. Dude is a donk.

Heh, I am not trying to get support as to whether that guy is a good player or not. He lost all his money fast that session, he lost it all in a subsequent session on another table. He is one of the first I look for when I log into Party. The problem with him on that hand is that conventional thinking like you suggest does not always apply. You would never play 34 at any time that hand, most people would not. That guy played basically every flop, and I am sure a suited connector seemed like a premium hand to him.

I am also well aware of the need to make the crying call, it was a topic of a large discussion about a year ago here and I have to admit since then I have incorporated it a lot more and it has paid off well, and in 99.9% of the cases I would call without giving a thought.

This guy literally never bet or raised in hundreds of hands, and to an extent thats what put the sound fundimental theories being suggested here sort of inside out for me. I saw him call down hands with Q high but I never saw him bet or raise.

Flint Bones

That's Party for you. I played against a similar guy except he NEVER raised, even with the nuts. Ace high flush no staright flush, quads or boats possible. I bet, he just calls. My King high flush was no good but when he just called I was sure it was.

It is a bad beat for you. I hate them and would have screamed and ranted over this one.