How much credit do you give?

beanie42

Playing low-buyin MTT's on Stars, I've been trying to play "properly" for the most part. Rather than loosen my play too much, I try to mostly play good cards and destroy the morons with them (results vary with rivers ).

In a recent hand in a $5+.50 (about 1000 started) I picked up QQ in MP early in tournament (blinds at 15-30). UTG+1 (1280 chips) raised to 120. I (1440 chips) re-raised to 400. CO-1 (1730) re-raised to 1000. UTG+1 re-raised all-in. Both players have are tight/aggressive and have shown decent hands so far. Also, there is no way the CO will be folding with this pot, so I consider my implied odds the real ones (is this a good idea?) - 1040 into 3165. 3-to-1, but the action is raise re-raise re-re-raise all-in, so a bit scary - normally means at least somebody has AA or KK (barring morons). Also, it's still really early in the tourney and I'll still have 1000 chips left, so with these blinds I won't be hurting if I fold.

Considering the buy-in and the above scenario, how much credit would you give your opponents here? Obviously you can't play at a level higher than what your opponents do (since they won't understand), but do you assume a better hand is out there, or do you remember that over 1/2 the players will re-raise with ducks, and go for it? What would you put these players on, and what's your play?

stpboy

I've pondered this question many times. When entering a game, what can you assume about the average player playing? Do you assume that you are the best player? Do you assume that atleast half of them are donks? What can you assume when you are playing at a table without any previous information.

In this case, from several Mtt's I've played I would say that you are A) Ahead and in a race. One player I would give credit for AK, the other 77-JJ. It could be very likely that they both have a big Ace, which puts you in great position. Needless to say, I'm not folding this and I'm fairly certain you didn't either.

stp

stpboy

Right after I posted this, I get this in my first hand. Not the same but close...

Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/12/30 - 13:15:00 (ET)
Table '16919684 61' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: berilusiga (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: rcult233 (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: parrotman01 (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: hubieballer (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: wowsaveit (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: hanalei_lv (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: stpboy77 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: htownplyr (1500 in chips)
rcult233: posts small blind 10
parrotman01: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to stpboy77 [Qs Qd]
hubieballer: raises 60 to 80
wowsaveit: folds
hanalei_lv: calls 80
parrotman01 is connected
stpboy77: raises 1420 to 1500 and is all-in
htownplyr: folds
berilusiga: folds
rcult233: folds
parrotman01: folds
hubieballer: calls 1420 and is all-in
hanalei_lv: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c Tc 9d]
*** TURN *** [5c Tc 9d] [5h]
*** RIVER *** [5c Tc 9d 5h] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hubieballer: shows [Jh Jc] (a full house, Fives full of Jacks)
stpboy77: shows [Qs Qd] (a full house, Fives full of Queens)
stpboy77 said, "gg"
stpboy77 collected 3110 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3110 | Rake 0
Board [5c Tc 9d 5h 5s]
Seat 1: berilusiga (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: rcult233 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: parrotman01 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: hubieballer showed [Jh Jc] and lost with a full house, Fives full of Jacks
Seat 6: wowsaveit folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: hanalei_lv folded before Flop
Seat 8: stpboy77 showed [Qs Qd] and won (3110) with a full house, Fives full of Queens
Seat 9: htownplyr folded before Flop (didn't bet)

beanie42

stpboy wrote:

One player I would give credit for AK, the other 77-JJ.  It could be very likely that they both have a big Ace, which puts you in great position.  Needless to say, I'm not folding this and I'm fairly certain you didn't either.

LOL - the legendary reading skills continue. The UTG+1 I put on a mid-pair (77-1010). I actually gave the CO-1 credit for something big, most likely AK/AQ, but possibly AA/KK (although he'd have to show it to me ). With the odds and the unlikely (but possible) better hands out there, it was a fairly easy call (so you're right I didn't fold either ). UTG+1 had 99 while the CO-1 had AKs. Flop came down QJJ no clubs - tripled up.

I'm just curious about this because if the same situation came up at a Bristol, etc., I think it would be a hard (but good) fold. I just want to make sure I'm giving enough respect to the online players so that I don't screw up, while still not throwing away chips treating them like pros.

If the same situation came up later in the tournament (say halfway through the money - 80 left, obviously blinds/stacks adjusted), would you assume that the players are slightly better and fold here, or call anyway?

WARNING: Off Topic Good beat / Bad beat :
As far as the tourney went, I was in good position (top 50 with 400 left). My flopped nut-flush ran into a runner-runner straight flush . 5 spades on the board (k 7 2 9 8), I had AQ while he had J 10. Then got moved to another table where some yahoo thought it was a rebuy tourney and was going all-in every hand and donking people out. With my depleted stack, I just waited for some cards, and moved in. Unfortunately, my AKs was no match for 93o, and thus it ends

SirWatts

You'll be beat a decent amount of the time i think but often you'll get shown some strange stuff and triple up or win a race and triple up. Definitely have to call and hope for the best.

Dave Scharf

I fold QQ in the orignal post.

I think it is VERY likely that you are against at least one of KK or AA.

A re-re-raise and a re-re-re-raise scream AA or KK. Especially because it is early. The chips are deep. If one or the other had been short stacked I would be more tempted since short stacks will frequently do strange things because they are desperate. That does not appear to be the case here.