+EV or Tilt?

magithighs

I'm on a 6 handed table taking some horrible beats -- reallly, really horrilbe plays like K5 hitting a 5 on the river with me holding AK -- he has two pair K5 and me top pair.  I'm thinking I'd love to play any one of these 5 players heads up, as my edge would be huge.  So, I offer anyone $50 bucks if they will play me heads up.  I'm playing 10/20, so it's only 2.5 BBs.  The offer only stands if they will play me for 1/2 hr. minimum.  Is this crazy?

Cheers
Magi

T_Mac

tilt, first of all u have no way of forcing them to keep playing after you pay them.

you really think you can make all that money back in half an hour? what if they take the max time per hand? what if they get luckier than u? what if they outplay you?

SirWatts

You can beat them HU for over 5 BB/hr even with the rake? They may be bad but that seems unrealistic, though I don't know anything about HU win rates compared to normal ring. I vote for a round of the penguin whacking game.

BBC Z

SirWatts wrote:

You can beat them HU for over 5 BB/hr even with the rake? They may be bad but that seems unrealistic, though I don't know anything about HU win rates compared to normal ring. I vote for a round of the penguin whacking game.

Uhoh.. Don't even THINK about mentioning winrates around magi..

Soup

Here we go again

Chugs

In terms of winrates, one would think that the difference between good players and bad players would exhibit themselves most in heads-up situations. Variance may be greater but i think 30 minutes may provide to short a period of time for you to ensure that you can exploit the players weakness.


In general though i don't think offering a player a few BB to play them, if you feel you can exploit them for more is a bad idea ... consider it like playing golf with a handicap

pkrfce9

T_Mac wrote:

tilt, first of all u have no way of forcing them to keep playing after you pay them.

well, come on, you don't pay them until after the half hour. they are poker players after all. of course, they'd have to trust you to pay them, too...

i say go for it. HU the win rates would have to go up dramatically as compared to a full or even 6 player table. 2.5BB even in a half hour, when you would likely play 100 hands or more should be easy to beat.

magithighs

Yep, I thought my edge was huge.  However, I think the bad beats tend to magnify my perception of the actual edge.  This is why I posted, as I wasn't sure what was incorrect with my thinking. 

Pkrfce has it right.  I said I would only pay if he completes the 1/2 hr.  I only need to make up 1.25 BB/hr.  The rake was actually around 180 bucks per hour which is totally insane.

We played for 1.5 hours with the rake at 250 bucks.  After the rake, and paying the guy, I still made 700 bucks.  I think I got lucky, that he wasn't a heads up player.  I think if he was only a half decent player, the rake would have been insurmountable.

The main thing is I've learned that my perception really goes out of wack after a few bad beats.  No matter how bad the players, the edge is really never reallly, really, huge.  Give it time and good play and a reasonable edge of something like 10% --- the wins will be huge. After all, that's how Vegas works.

Cheers
Magi