Short-stacked with weak Ace
In the middle of a free-roll, ranked near the bottom (550 of 650 - 1200 started), and my stack is less than 1/2 average. Blinds are 300/600 (100).
After posting the BB, my stack is 7050. 4 others at table have around 7k, 2 have 11k, and the 2 big stacks have 40K. The 2 big stacks are pretty aggressive, and have been gobbling up our blinds (as well as making some questionable all-in calls), and are currently on the button and SB.
Everyone folded to the BB, who made a pot-sized bet of 1900, and SB folded. Pot is $4300 and $1900 to call. The button has been raising a lot of pots pre-flop, and has called all-ins with A2o, A4o, and 88, as well as winning at showdown with 10-8o in the last couple rounds. However, most of his wins have been pre-flop or with continuation bets on the flop. Basically, nobody has had the nerve/cards to challenge him, and I haven't picked up any hands to play with (no pairs, connectors, or suited A's
- how I survived this long I don't know).
Anyway, I have :ac :7h . However, the villain has shown that he over-values A-rag, and his raise doesn't really indicate real strength (unless he's catching monsters every 3 hands). My M is just under 4 right now if I fold (and I'm immediately in the SB). Based on his previous play, if I call he'll bet on the flop, so I'm committed. If I move all-in, it will make the pot 11,350 and cost him 5150 to call, so about 2 to 1. Based on his previous play, I think he'll call about 60% of the time (I'd make his range any pair or any A + ), so I'm expecting action if I play. Also, if an A falls, my
I'm pretty tight, so my gut is telling me it's way to weak to call with. However, based on my low stack, my logic is saying that maybe I should move in. My rough odds from memory was that if he had an A, just over half the time he'd be a 7-3 favorite (bigger ace) and the rest would be in my favor. If he had pockets, just over half I'd be drawing to the A (again 7-3), and the rest (low pockets) would be a race. If he called the odds weren't in my favor (win about 40%), but since I thought he'd fold 40% of the time, maybe the right play would be to put my tightness away and simply move in on him.
Note that all of the above is going through my head rapidly as my timer ticks away. How close is my quick memory math, and what would your play be?
After posting the BB, my stack is 7050. 4 others at table have around 7k, 2 have 11k, and the 2 big stacks have 40K. The 2 big stacks are pretty aggressive, and have been gobbling up our blinds (as well as making some questionable all-in calls), and are currently on the button and SB.
Everyone folded to the BB, who made a pot-sized bet of 1900, and SB folded. Pot is $4300 and $1900 to call. The button has been raising a lot of pots pre-flop, and has called all-ins with A2o, A4o, and 88, as well as winning at showdown with 10-8o in the last couple rounds. However, most of his wins have been pre-flop or with continuation bets on the flop. Basically, nobody has had the nerve/cards to challenge him, and I haven't picked up any hands to play with (no pairs, connectors, or suited A's
- how I survived this long I don't know).Anyway, I have :ac :7h . However, the villain has shown that he over-values A-rag, and his raise doesn't really indicate real strength (unless he's catching monsters every 3 hands). My M is just under 4 right now if I fold (and I'm immediately in the SB). Based on his previous play, if I call he'll bet on the flop, so I'm committed. If I move all-in, it will make the pot 11,350 and cost him 5150 to call, so about 2 to 1. Based on his previous play, I think he'll call about 60% of the time (I'd make his range any pair or any A + ), so I'm expecting action if I play. Also, if an A falls, my
I'm pretty tight, so my gut is telling me it's way to weak to call with. However, based on my low stack, my logic is saying that maybe I should move in. My rough odds from memory was that if he had an A, just over half the time he'd be a 7-3 favorite (bigger ace) and the rest would be in my favor. If he had pockets, just over half I'd be drawing to the A (again 7-3), and the rest (low pockets) would be a race. If he called the odds weren't in my favor (win about 40%), but since I thought he'd fold 40% of the time, maybe the right play would be to put my tightness away and simply move in on him.
Note that all of the above is going through my head rapidly as my timer ticks away. How close is my quick memory math, and what would your play be?
Comments
My gut was fold, my brain was push, but I didn't think a smooth-call made sense - but again, that's why I'm asking for some feedback on my logic.
Or, you smooth call. It looks like you will act first. It's better if you caught the flop but no matter what you push. Chances are he didn't hit. So he's got to wonder if you hit and how many outs he has to catch up. Since it's about a half pot bet, he needs at least 8 outs to be correctly drawing, assuming he hasn't figured out what you are doing. Not many flops will offer that many outs. It is still possible you win at showdown. So this way gives you 2 ways to win the pot. Of course the risk is, he would have folded pre-flop but now he catches something and won't fold. But your description makes me think he's calling pre-flop anyway.
Food for thought.
I would push - against one other opponent your A alone maybe good.
If he has you outkicked its not like you were going to get away from that on the flop anyhow if the Ace comes. That is why I wouldnt smooth call. Considering your stack size.
Push and hope he folds - if he calls hope you are ahead - but in your position you have to make a move. It may be the best hand you see before the blinds come back and you are forced to push with less. And possibley against more players.
Just my two cents.
I am all in.
I'm curious what people think the odds of a stop and go working against this guy are? Then somehow compare the value of the increased likelihood of winning the pot using this move (as opposed to to all-in preflop) against a smaller increase in your stack (from 100% to only increasing by 50 or 60%). Given that I'm not giving up that many chips in a relative sense, I like the lower variance.
Like you mentioned, I think the stop and go could get him off a better ace or an underpair, which are hands he is unlikely to fold pre-flop. These are two potential hands in this scenario.
I don't believe you mentioned the possibility that he could hit the winning hand on the turn or river if he's all-in but if we can get him to fold on the flop, we're money. Does that sort of cancel out with the fact that smooth calling could allow him to hit the flop whereas we might have got him to fold pre-flop?
Yeah my analysis isn't entirely complete for simplicity's sake. There are a few other variables to consider but they cancel each other out a bit like you said or and are not as significant as the cases I discussed. How often is the player described here folding a big ace to an all-in on the flop that looks like exactly what it is: a stop and go bluff. I'm not giving him the credit to understand that, but it at least looks "funny" to him so I'm guessing he's not folding that often.
I would agree in some situations - but given the parameters - you are not likely to push this guy off a better Ace.
For the following reasons:
1. you are betting 5000 at at $6200 pot against a loose player with top pair.
2. all your chips are in - so he is more likely to call knowing it wont cost him any more to see the next two cards.
3. you smooth called the flop so if his better ace is A9 or A10 he would probably feel he was ahead of you anyhow.
4. he may not even be paying attention to fancy play - if this is a free roll he is likely playing another table too; and this hand is not nearly as big for him as it is for you.
The stop and go could be effective if your stack was say 15K but at 5k with a $6k pot - dont bet on it.
Alternatively, if he's playing a small pair, he would definitely be in trouble if there were an Ace on the flop. If this were to happen, acting first, I would go for the check-raise all-in on the flop.
Then I checked the numbers, and they tell a different tale. Ax vs AT-3 where x is less than the other hand is really not that much of a dog. Yes, it won't win very often, but if you factor in the ties, it's really not that bad a situation. Things start to diverge is at the Jack. So, if you're opponent has AJ or better things start to look grim for your weak ace.Â
Against say AT you're around 35% to tie or win. And it gets much better at A9 when it's around a 40% chance to tie or win. So, you're only in real trouble against AJ or better.
If you then factor in the hand range that they may hold, things start to look much better as pkrfce pointed out. And, as someone mentioned, you really want to get all the chips in if you're a favourite. There is some fold equity by pushing. No much, but there's some. So, assuming all that, and that you need chips, I think you want to push here.
Cheers
Magi
The flop came down :6h :kh :qh and without hesitation I moved all-in. My split-second thought was that if he has no heart I win, otherwise I go home. He thought for a bit and finally folded, commenting So I'm back up just over $11k. This hand bothered me though, because while I stayed alive, in hindsight I think the all-in was the correct move (although I may have then lost the hand if he hit the straight without another heart).
Here's the kicker - next hand (in SB) I got another weak ace (:as :2d) - LOL.