MTT's & Luck (gasp!)

IronDocIronDoc
in Online Poker
Hi gang...was wondering how many "lucky breaks" are 'required' to win an MTT? I've been to a few FT's (my goal this year was to get to one) and have 'needed' a break or two to get me there...I also busted out in 8th place yesterday when my AKs was beat by the big stack's AJo.

Does anyone have a feel for this idea? It's always an element of skill and luck...just wondering how many 'breaks' does it take to make it all the way to the winner's circle (goal for next year)...thanks,

Bill

Comments

  • Hork42Hork42
    Uhh.... "lots" of luck... ??

    Really, what do you classify as luck? Winning an all-in showdown from behind? Getting dealt better than average cards? Getting dealt premium cards at the same time there are other people willing to give you action? Being seated at a table with a bunch of aggro fishies? The site crashing when you're the chipleader and the tournament being cancelled?

    It's really hard to quantify luck. Yes, to win anything there will be luck involved, but you can't control it. Worry about the things you can control and things will fall into place.
  • the_mainthe_main
    Lots is right.

    If you took out my top 2 cahses, I'd be a losing player.
    MTTs are all about the big scores - and the stars really need to align for you to get them.
  • sharpe88sharpe88
    I guess he is asking how many times you need to suck out basically ?

    I am gonna guess that in a BIG tournament you're gonna have to win some races and suck out a few times. but in say a 3 table MTT you might need to win a few races or just have great hands, poor opponents who don't don't suck out too much
  • IronDocIronDoc
    Well, in the words of Dr. McCoy: "I reasoned that it was time for an emotional outburst" aka making the wrong play at the right time. For example, one hand I won in the last MTT was a nut flush with 2 overcards against a made JJ hand with one card possible in the flush scenario.

    The villain (1_BigAce_hole I think it was) went berserk calling me a clown, chump, etc and was out 2-3 hands later. I also beat AA with QQ when a Greenstein-like Q hit on the river. Is there a time when you are mathematically due for a break?

    Bill
  • Hork42Hork42
    IronDoc wrote:
    Is there a time when you are mathematically due for a break?

    Absolutely not.
  • zerozero
    IronDoc wrote:
    Is there a time when you are mathematically due for a break?


    Reminds of that dumbass everyone wanted to play heads up: "I had 77, and since I hadn't seen a flop with a 7 for a long time, I knew one was due" something like that anyways.

    But yea, saying that is mixing up luck with probabilty. If you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads each time, does that mean that next flip its tails for sure?
  • ryanhealyryanhealy
    Ive found in my best cashes and wins, I suckout very very few times, if not never.

    I find that if Im sucking out on hands more than once or twice, Im getting my chips in from behind, and if Im in a mindset where thats happening, I probably wont win.

    In my best finishes Ive been very in tune with when Im ahead and when Im behind, so I dont find myself getting my chips in where I need to suck out.

    I find the biggest factor of luck that is needed in MTTs is being "lucky" enough to have your hands hold up when youre ahead. I find going a whole tourney without having someone suck out on your is rare.

    So to me, the biggest luck involved in winning is to be lucky enough to not get sucked out on, or when you do get sucked out on, that it isnt in a crucial situation, or the person doesnt have a very large stack to dent you with.
  • beanie42beanie42
    ryanhealy wrote:
    Ive found in my best cashes and wins, I suckout very very few times, if not never.

    ....

    So to me, the biggest luck involved in winning is to be lucky enough to not get sucked out on, or when you do get sucked out on, that it isnt in a crucial situation, or the person doesnt have a very large stack to dent you with.
    Totally agree - nice post.
  • IronDocIronDoc
    ...also agree with the last poster...thanks for the input...

    Bill
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    Sometimes you will suckout and other times you will get it in with the best a lot and be lucky enough to hold up most of the time. Every tournament is different, and if you think the only time you get it in with the worst is when you're "off your game" that's either a big leak or you're not analyzing the situations correctly, because when when you're shortstacked you should be pushing with crap a lot and eventually you will either get called when you have something or suck out when you get called and have nothing (or bust). Also let's not forget that sometimes you just get dealt a "cooler" where it would be a mistake not to stick it all in but then you end up having the worst hand (KK vs AA is the most basic example). However when you go deep in a tournament you've usually had above average luck in "some" way. Enough different things can happen in tournaments that it won't always be the same though.
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