odds of getting called?

pkrfce9pkrfce9
in General Poker Chat
If I'm sitting at a tight table where people would only call if they held say 6% of all possible starting hands, what are the odds of at least one caller if I'm the button and put in a huge raise? I figure it's 12% but I've heard other opinions. The odds of 2 callers I figure to be 0.36% (ignore the change in pot odds increasing the odds of a second caller). So the odds of exactly 1 caller I set at 11.64%.

Similarly, what about if I'm the cutoff? And so on. I'm curious if I can just use a simple formula or if there are more complex forces at work.

Comments

  • SirWattsSirWatts
    Assuming everyone just plays their cards and whether someone in front of them called or they are in the blinds is irrelevant, the probability of getting AT LEAST one caller is 1 - (0.94)^2 = 11.64% from the button (1 - probability that no one calls). So in general with n players behind you it is 1 - (.94)^n .
    2 players: 11.6%
    3 players: 16.9%
    4 players: 21.9%
    5 players: 26.6%
    etc...
    Raising from almost any postition is going to be very profitable.
  • ChugsChugs
    I would point out that the impact of any one player suddenly raising every hand from every position, would instantly change the dynamic of the table, just a situation where the second tier effect may have a greater effect than the primary action.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    Valid point, Chugs. This isn't something that you could pull off every hand from every position. Just once in a while to keep your stack from shrinking and potentially increase it a bit when the table is playing tight.

    SirWatts, continuing on with your calculations, am I correct in assuming the odds of both SB and BB calling are 0.36% given the original assumptions? So then the odds of exactly one of SB or BB calling are 11.64% - 0.36% = 11.28%?

    Thanks for the feedback.
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    pkrfce9 wrote:
    SirWatts, continuing on with your calculations, am I correct in assuming the odds of both SB and BB calling are 0.36% given the original assumptions? So then the odds of exactly one of SB or BB calling are 11.64% - 0.36% = 11.28%?

    Yes you are. And Chugs' point is valid of course in any normal situation, though if you're on a bubble for example it may prevent them from adjusting and calling/reraising you more liberally.
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