Sit'n'go Dilemma
This morning 20+2 sit'n'go... 4 left... SB (T450) BB(T3500) me(T2400) Button(1650). Blinds are 100/200 so the SB hasn't got much time left... I get dealt AhKh... gotta play it... I make it 400 to go. Button folds, SB folds, BB calls. Flop comes AsKs3h... not too shabby... BB checks... hmmm.... decision time... Bet out 600... BB calls(--insert expletive--) I was hoping to take this down here!
The turn... 4h... BB checks... wtf does this guy have? He's called my preflop raise and called my 600 bet on the flop. Is he smooth calling me with AA or KK... fear gets the better of me... I check.
River delivers the... Kc... he bets out $500...
... if I fold and he shows K3c or Kx I will be pissed.
... if I call and he shows AA I will be very pissed.
...to be continued.
--Mike
The turn... 4h... BB checks... wtf does this guy have? He's called my preflop raise and called my 600 bet on the flop. Is he smooth calling me with AA or KK... fear gets the better of me... I check.
River delivers the... Kc... he bets out $500...
... if I fold and he shows K3c or Kx I will be pissed.
... if I call and he shows AA I will be very pissed.
...to be continued.
--Mike
Comments
BTW, I am dying to know what he had.
I would have made it 800 to go pre-fop. I would often make a standard raise of 600 in this spot, but I like the idea of betting half the button's stack size without necessarily pot-comitting myself against the big stack.
I would have pushed all-in on the flop.
If I happened to be in the turn situation you were in, I would have pushed all-in.
I don't know how I could put your opponent on AA specifically by the river. I would raise for value.
My guess is he had a spade draw.
HellmuthFan, I'll bet you one Canadian dollar that the BB does not have KK. 8)
ScottyZ
I've got a feeling he won't get shown the pocket Kings.
ScottyZ
hope BB doesn't have AA :?:
( closes eyes ) :shock:
are we gonna get the results ? :?:
Yep, "raise for value" means exactly that. Well, technically it means a *tiny* bit more than that... you also need to assess that there is some reasonable chance of your opponent having a worse hand that will pay off your bet (or raise).
Note: My "guess" that he has a busted flush draw is independent of the raising for value strategy. Clearly if I put him on a busted draw with *high* enough probability, and there is almost no chance at all of him having any kind of second best hand other than the busted draw, a raise for value can't be the right thing to do. A read this accurate would be an anomaly.
I figure there is enough of a chance that the BB has a hand which is worth attempting to extract value from.
Another thing, why on earth is "Fold" an option in the poll? Folding would be off-the-charts brutal I think.
ScottyZ
any guess? :?:
Calling the minimum bet pre-flop in defense of the BB means he has any 2 cards.
Calling 600 on the flop still leaves the BB, who is on a big stack, with a wide variety of hands.
Betting 500 on the river after a check-check turn leaves an even wider variety of hands than was present on the flop call. Now, even a stone cold bluff isn't out of the question. The BB might think an Ace is good. How about KQ?
AA is a *possible* hand, but not so likely as to prevent me from making a value raise here.
ScottyZ
agreed 8)
i *would* like to believe MickeyHoldem has the best hand here :shock:
Haha
LOL
I raised all-in... there's only 1 hand out there to fear and the chance to take a commanding chip lead was just too great. He called and had AA... and I went out on the bubble (--insert triple expletive here--).
This choice comes up alot in these sit'n'go tourneys... play it slow and try and make the money... or take your chances and play for the win. I always take the chance... I sleep better at night.
72 sit'n'gos
1 14
2 10
3 6
4 17
5 6
6 8
7 5
8 0 yeah... I don't know why either!
9 2
10 4
--Mike
I don't think there's any way anyone could have put your opponent on exactly Aces without knowing that this was a hand would turn out to be interesting enough to post on a poker forum.
ScottyZ
Interesting read. Our hero has AK, and the board is AKK. You put the other guy on the 4th and 5th kings? THAT is a tricky player.
Keith
The chances that he has AA are split in half, since you have one of the four aces in your hand. So it would be hard to put him on AA here. He played it pretty well though by just smooth calling your bets and then pouncing at the end.
It must have been 6's wild, and he meant K6.
ScottyZ
I think you must at least call here. The real question is do you *raise* here, or just call.
The fact that you have an Ace in your own hand actually cuts the chances of him having AA to 1/3 of what they would be if you had no Ace.
ScottyZ
This is sort of an interesting situation. You both have the same hand, in that you have the second nuts and you lose to EXACTLY two cards in the deck. You only lose to the other two aces, and he only loses to the other two kings. Unfortunately his second nuts beats yours
Keith
Though lose man
I just figured it was the WSOP. How many kings in the deck? http://pokerforum.ca/forum/viewtopic.php?t=613
Man, those suited pairs are POWERFUL hands.
Keith
I don't know about that... I've never seen one win a pot!
--Mike
I think that's a good point BUT 900 chips is not insignificant. There are only 8000 chips in play. So it gives you an additional 11.25% chance of winning it all... certainly not insignificant. Having said that, it is certainly worth trying to limp into the money, but I'm not sure how much you want to give up to do that.
I will, however, say this. I assume that this is a 50/30/20 payout structure? In that case the idea that "a chip lost is worth more than a chip won" REALLY comes into play here, especially in this situation with one short stack. So, now that you mention it... I guess I agree with you (even though I voted "raise all in"). But now I've changed my mind. I think that just calling is the right play.
Let's analyze this one. If you call and lose, I would say that you have a 66% chance of finishing 3rd or higher (since you have double the chips of the small blind) so let's say that your tournament equity is about $28 or so (a bit more than 66% of third since you could also finish higher). So if you raise all-in and lose, you finish 4th, and your equity is $0.
Now, if you call and win, you have 4200 chips. 52.5% chance of winning, and let's say... 40% chance of 2nd, 5% chance of 3rd, 2.5% chance of missing the money (these are estimates based on how other chip stacks look compared to you). So equity = about $78.50. If you raise all-in and win, the extra 900 chips raises your chances of winning by 11.25% and lowers the other percentages.. unfortunately most of the lowering comes from 2nd, so let's say you gain an extra $5 of equity.
So, bottom line, raising all in you are risking $28 of equity to win $5. Do you think you are winning 6 times out of 7? I change my vote. I agree with vinsanity. Call, don't raise.
Keith
If limping into 3rd place was something important to you, the right play was folding pre-flop. You're virtaully guaranteed getting into the money by simply clicking "sit out" and going for a snack.
How are you even playing a hand where you are not willing to get all your chips in when the board hits you that hard? You've got the second nut, and the nut hand is two exact cards which your opponent has shown no indication of having. I don't see how a player who fears that they're being trapped in this particular hand would *ever* make a value bet without the nuts. Other than actually having the nuts, I can't think of a hand where a value bet (or raise) is more strongly indicated.
This is one of those examples where the actual *poker* play is so good that I don't think the fact that this particular tournament situation can swing your decision.
ScottyZ
It's not that you're not willing to get all your chips in... it's more that you're not going to force the issue. If the other player puts you all-in you call (the pot is way too big to give up) but I don't see anything wrong with just calling when your opponent gives you the chance at a cheaper showdown.
Well, in a cash game you would be risking 900 chips (whatever those are worth) in order to win 900 chips... you only have to be winning more than 1/2 the time (when called) for this to be good.
Above, I estimated that the 900 chip raise would be risking $28 of equity to win $5 of equity. This means that you have to be winning almost 6 times out of 7 when called for the raise to be a good play. I'm not sure that you are, in this case. It's not that your hand isn't good... it's just that, if you put your opponent on a "good" hand preflop (which is reasonable from the betting) then there are not a lot of hands he can call with. 33 comes to mind, AK for the chop (in which case it doesnt matter whether you raise or not), maybe KQ. You're not beating anything else. If he is trying to steal the pot with a hand like QQ he isn't calling here. It strikes me as a close gamble... one that you should be avoiding in a tournament.
Of course knowing your opponent and being able to put him on a range of hands helps. If he is the type of player who could have, and WOULD CALL WITH a wide variety of hands, then raising is probably a good play. If he is a tight player who (based on the preflop betting, and the fact that he is still around) could only have a hand like AA, AK, or KQs, then what are you raising for? Your raise lays 6-1 odds... you have to be pretty sure that you will win the times that you are called. Note that if you think that, out of the hands that he could have, he would only call with AA, AK, or KQs, then the raise is a bad one. There are 2 combinations of KQs he could have, and one combination of AA, meaning that you are essentially laying 6-1 odds when you are a 2-1 favourite. If he could also have 33 (know your player... would he have called the preflop raise with 33???) then you have to add 3 more combinations that you are beating... and it's STILL a bad play, laying 6-1 when you are a 5-1 favourite. Now, if he could also have hands like KQo and K3, raising becomes the better play. Being able to put your opponent on a range of hands is certainly useful here.
Being able to think all this through in the "heat of battle" would be... ummm... amazing. It's obviously a lot easier to look back and take all the time you need to do the analysis.
Keith