is this just a ridiculous thought? could i actually do it?

Yesterday I was playing in the 180 person SnG on PokerStars. I was at the final table with a nice chip lead (there was 270 000 chips total and i have just under 54000, about 1/5 of all chips in play). There were eight players left, the final table had just started and a really short stack had busted out on the second hand, this is about the 5th hand in. Here is the action

Blinds were 800/1600 with 100 ante (not sure of the amount of the ante)
UTG with 15 000 chips raises to 4000
MP with 23 000 chips raises and makes it 12000 to go
Folded to me on the button with AA

From this action and what little i've seen from these players I automatically assume that they are both going to be willing to play for all of their chips (about half of my chips). Can I fold my rockets here? Just basically knowing that I can comfortably steal blinds and chip my way to the top 3 or I can be left with 21000 and have to endure the crunch to make the final 3. (Keeping in mind this is PokerStars) Could I fold my aces to preserve my chip lead and garuntee smooth sailing to the final 3?

Comments

  • this is just a ridiculous thought

    FYP.
  • Nicely said BBC.
  • Not ridiculous. Insane. What better way to maximize your EV than by getting all your chips in as a 70% favourite over 2 players?

    There's rarely a good reason for folding AA pre-flop and this situation certainly does not present one.

    Tell me you got em both all-in. Tell me how bad the beat was!
  • BBC Z wrote:
    this is just a ridiculous thought

    FYP.

    Even an uber rock like me gotta agree with BBC here, no way you fold, re-raise, whatever it takes to get their chips!
  • never ever fold AA preflop,ever, unless it's a very strange bubble situation in a satellite or something insane.  if the whole table was all-in you call and do a happy dance even though you'd only win like 1/3rd of the time.  No one is good enough at "chipping away" to fold here, no matter what STPboy tries to tell you  :D
  • well yeah, this is all pretty much what went through my head at the time, but of course i thought that i was going to get outdrawn... and i did, they both called when i pushed them in and it seemed to be going well i hit a third ace on the flop, but MP guy hit a runner runner flush :'(
  • Isn't the variance of tournament poker so great?
  • yes yes it is... i see you're playing the $100 PL holdem tourney on PS sirwatts
  • Yeah maybe I'll have better luck, what plce did you end up finishing?
  • i got 5th, so it wasn't a horrid pay day. i'm in the $20 PL holdem right now, i didn't notice before but you're in there too, my screen name is thebigugs
  • Cool good luck, 5th isn't a bad payday, though obviously you always want 1st
  • just got outdrawn huge

    PokerStars Game #3258949526: Tournament #16033148, Hold'em Pot Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2005/12/06 - 16:23:59 (ET)
    Table '16033148 8' Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: criticalvic (1645 in chips)
    Seat 2: Getaria (970 in chips)
    Seat 3: Lightning142 (1365 in chips) is sitting out
    Seat 4: caniwin12 (790 in chips)
    Seat 5: ips.seri (3095 in chips)
    Seat 6: jeffD3535 (2855 in chips)
    Seat 7: mf44 (1530 in chips)
    Seat 8: thebigugs (2705 in chips)
    Seat 9: TokTobbe (1645 in chips)
    Lightning142: posts small blind 15
    caniwin12: posts big blind 30
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to thebigugs [Qs Qc]
    ips.seri: folds
    jeffD3535: calls 30
    mf44: folds
    thebigugs: raises 90 to 120
    TokTobbe: folds
    criticalvic: raises 315 to 435
    Getaria: folds
    Lightning142: folds
    caniwin12: folds
    jeffD3535: folds
    thebigugs: calls 315
    *** FLOP *** [7d 9s 6h]
    thebigugs: bets 945
    criticalvic: raises 265 to 1210 and is all-in
    thebigugs: calls 265
    *** TURN *** [7d 9s 6h] [Th]
    *** RIVER *** [7d 9s 6h Th] [6d]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    thebigugs: shows [Qs Qc] (two pair, Queens and Sixes)
    criticalvic: shows [Ts Tc] (a full house, Tens full of Sixes)
    criticalvic collected 3365 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 3365 | Rake 0
    Board [7d 9s 6h Th 6d]
    Seat 1: criticalvic showed [Ts Tc] and won (3365) with a full house, Tens full of Sixes
    Seat 2: Getaria (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: Lightning142 (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 4: caniwin12 (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 5: ips.seri folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: jeffD3535 folded before Flop
    Seat 7: mf44 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 8: thebigugs showed [Qs Qc] and lost with two pair, Queens and Sixes
    Seat 9: TokTobbe folded before Flop (didn't bet)
  • didn't work out, just busted out with KK
  • Wow. You want to fold AA but you'll play lesser hands like QQ and KK?? ;)
  • I must be getting overexposed to bad beat posts/stories, because when I first read this post my initial thought was "is this just a way to disguise a bad beat post?"

    Sadly to an extent it was :P


    Bad beat or not, if you fold the aces in the initial situation then you are not playing to win tournaments, and given the way tournament payouts are made (ie: very top heavy), that is not the ideal approach.

    Congrats on the solid finish.
  • pkrfce9 wrote:
    Not ridiculous. Insane. What better way to maximize your EV than by getting all your chips in as a 70% favourite over 2 players?

    There's rarely a good reason for folding AA pre-flop and this situation certainly does not present one.

    Tell me you got em both all-in. Tell me how bad the beat was!


    Is this coming from the guy that folded his Kings to me on a board of 623 rainbow? lol...
  • SirWatts wrote:
    never ever fold AA preflop,ever, unless it's a very strange bubble situation in a satellite or something insane.  if the whole table was all-in you call and do a happy dance even though you'd only win like 1/3rd of the time.  No one is good enough at "chipping away" to fold here, no matter what STPboy tries to tell you  :D

    I would never fold aces in this position when playing for cash, perhaps playing for a satellite spot where both players had equal chips and all in and they were the bubble. Folding AK in this position I believe would be the right move, which is what I would do.

    stp
  • stpboy wrote:
    [Is this coming from the guy that folded his Kings to me on a board of  623 rainbow? lol...
    Dude, I'm pretty sure there were 2 hearts on the board. And it was very early in the tourney. PLUS it was against YOU! The champ...
  • Is it safe to say you would have folded your aces to me too? I'm gonna have to remember this info for a later tournament.... Nice read btw.

    stp
  • I would almost always fold AK here too
  • stpboy wrote:
    Is it safe to say you would have folded your aces to me too?  I'm gonna have to remember this info for a later tournament....  Nice read btw.

    stp
    You gave a tell when you called me pre-flop that said "I can bust him with this hand". So I figured you had either a big pair and would make me look bad or a small pair and were ready to lay a baaaaad beat on me. Like what usually happens to me when I raise with AA or KK and get a caller. Based on the flop, I actually thought there was a very good chance you either had Aces or had hit a set. If I didn't have a decent stack with the blinds so low I would have pushed there. There were a number of hands I gave you credit for that had me well behind and a number that I was slightly ahead of. And of course a few I was well ahead of. You know how I play so you could guess the type of hand I had. And I know you are a tricky guy but I still had a pretty good idea what you would raise me with. Very unlikely just top pair here. If I had called that raise, I knew I was playing for all my chips. I didn't like giving up more than 10% of my stack but there was plenty of play left. Like I said, at that point, it wasn't an attractive proposition to me. You played me well there. Maybe I was wrong. Feel free to discuss.

    It would have been much simpler if you had re-raised pre-flop. Then the chips were going in! I see a big difference between pre-flop action and post-flop. Maybe I shouldn't???

    With Aces, the percentages have moved just enough that I would have re-raised you all-in. We would have laughed then cried and hugged each other.

    I actually had KK in another hand there in EP. I limped, hoping someone would raise behind me since this was a pretty raise-happy table. No such luck. The flop came with two Aces and the guy beside you called my decent-sized bet so I knew he had an Ace. I folded to a bigger bet later and he showed A3s.

    Ya, I'm weak-tight. Take my money, please. But who is that idiot that called a 3x re-raise all-in with K9? Never mind.
  • This is actually a pretty interesting hand that you and I played, for the record I had KK also.  Prefop raise from Pkrfce9, likely his first hand of the tournament.  I had a large stack and had been playing about every 3rd or 4th hand.  I was thinking preflop that I would take all of your chips if the flop was friendly, for some reason I actually thought I would hit my set.  Anyway, I just smooth called as did the guy to my left.  Flop was rags, Pkrfce9 bet out a pot sized bet and I re-raised him a bit over the minimum.  He mucked instantly (well, in my mind it was a fast muck).  I then showed my Kings just because I like Greg and well, I like showing my big hands. 

    I'm surpised you didn't re-raise me a bit to get me to define my hand better.  I could have very well made the same play with a pair of 8's (6 high flop).  Was it purely your read preflop that convinced you you were dead or was it because it was me? What weighed more, the above question, or the fact that the blinds were low enough that you didn't want to risk it at that time?

    stp
  • Was it purely your read preflop that convinced you you were dead or was it because it was me?

    It's the fact that his attitude to poker in the early stages of the tournament is to desperately look for an escape hatch for fear of being outplayed.

    That tells me that you bluff the hell out of him early and let him make the 'big laydowns'
  • Ya, BBC the resident NL tourney expert nailed it. Two thumbs up, baby! You can tell he's really starting to grasp some of the NL concepts.

    It was definitely not a fast muck. I really thought about the range of hands you could be playing. I considered re-raising you but really, I'd have to put in another, say, 1500-1800 chips to see if you would go all-in. Then lay it down if you did? Too much of my stack to find out I'm likely beat. Since I still had a huge stack relative to the blinds I was willing to let this go in hopes of a better opportunity. I'm curious what your read of the situation was?

    I decided before the tourney that I'd play the early stages very tight and try to get a handle on how everyone was playing. And my early play would make Dan Harrington look like a freakin maniac. I don't see a big problem with this. I felt this would serve me well as the blinds increased. Couple this with the fact that most of the cards I was getting were crap and whenever I was in a position to steal a pot, someone always raised in front of me. So ya, I was playing tight.

    I definitely knew your style at the table, as well as the guy beside me, Gow's, Wolf's, Carmaker's and that young Asian guy (YAG) on my right. The others, meh, I'm not so sure but I had a reasonable idea. If the YAG or Gow had been in that hand I definitely would have re-raised but you, hmmm, given the circumstances, I knew you had something. It could have been worse than me but the chances were high enough it wasn't so I passed. There's been tons of posts about playing an overpair after the flop but it is never easy when you encounter resistance from a sharpie. In the end, I did not make the correct play.

    Not that playing tight early was so bad. I used my image to my advantage once the blinds started becoming onerous. I was able to steal a few blinds and take down a couple of pots with some marginal hands. My stack was in very good shape when THE HAND happened. I would have been amongst the chip leaders had I won that one. I wonder what the YAG was thinking when he called all-in with K9? My guess, nothing. I love freerolls!
  • pkrfce9 wrote:
    It was definitely not a fast muck. I really thought about the range of hands you could be playing. I considered re-raising you but really, I'd have to put in another, say, 1500-1800 chips to see if you would go all-in. Then lay it down if you did? Too much of my stack to find out I'm likely beat. Since I still had a huge stack relative to the blinds I was willing to let this go in hopes of a better opportunity. I'm curious what your read of the situation was?

    As I said earlier, to me it was a fast muck. Of course, after the fact your memory tends to speed up things for storage purposes (I believe).

    My read of the sitution was that you obviously had a hand, I was thinking a pair larger then 9's. You raised preflop and I hadn't looked at my cards but I was basically ready to fold. It was the first hand you had played and I'm not really one to pick on people that are a) good players b) I'm friendly with. I look down and to my surprise were the kings, I don't want to raise for two reasons a) You may have bullets b) I felt as though I could trap you. A) way more then B) though. My flop raise was merely a "lets define how good his hand is bet" but at the same time I was fairly certain you would call and I obviously wanted your chips. I was surprised when you folded and thought that my read must have been off, perhaps you had a big ace.

    I can see why you folded....

    Several reasons:

    1) I had position on you
    2) You made yourself believe preflop that I had a small pair or was slow playing bullets. In retrospect, I would rarely just call with almost every other hand. I would likely raise with 88-QQ to define my hand preflop.
    3) I can take all of your chips
    4) It's early in the tournament, your chips vs. the blinds are deep AND your skill level is above average at the table and for the tournament.

    In saying all of this, I'm not sure if I fold here. I remember almost every tournament I play in to "not see monsters under the bed", yes I quoted BBC_Z here. I stated earlier that I thought it was a great read, it was. You knew i had a monster hand when I made my raise on the flop, there were still 5 hands that could beat you and you folded. I could very well see you playing this hand differently against almost every other player at the table, I do command this kind of respect ;) Honestly though, I'm wondering if you replayed this hand again in the future if you'd do the same thing?

    stp
  • No, I never play the same hand the same way twice. Of course, now that you know that, feel free to raise with your Aces and sets and take all my chips next time.

    And I lied. I had 55. Maybe. Or some other hand. Sorry, Johnnie, I can't remember.

    My contention is the board had 2 hearts. Your recollection is different. Assuming my version is correct, KK was plausibly behind a few more than 5 hands and a reasonable favourite over many others and only a huge favourite over a few others that you might make this move with.

    Good play on your part, BS TOC Champ. And don't be afraid to pick on people you are 'friendly with'.
  • pkrfce9 wrote:
    Good play on your part, BS TOC Champ. And don't be afraid to pick on people you are 'friendly with'.
    That's right - I bluffed Jenn out of 3/4 of her chips early in a tourney AND showed the hand. However, be prepared for a sore arm and future payback (she did thrash me at Lou's :( ).
  • It has been covered...

    In all but the strangest of circumstances, it should be your sole mission pre-flop to get all in when you are holding A-A. You were served a soft lob. Smash a winner and get those losers all in pre-flop.
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