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Full Hand Analysis: Jay's Trip Report #1 (06/01/03)
I decided to take a shot at some hand analysis here, in the sense of "how I would have played it". I hope no-one finds the presentation too arrogant or pushy, and I welcome more discussion of particular hands.
Jay, try not to take this as a personal attack or anything like that, but I see many significant mistakes here. If I was in your shoes (also see below) I would probably hate me for saying some of these things as a first reaction, but I would possibly thank me later. (Did I use enough first person there for everyone? Hopefully you get the idea...)
Massive disclaimers:
-All of the hand histories are missing quite a bit of information, but I am doing my best at filling in the details with things I think are typical of Brantford $5-$10. I am often missing vital information like what your opponents in particular hands are like, your position, sometimes actual actions are missing.
-The length might be a little much, due to the number of hands. I tried to set it up so it would be easy to read in small chunks.
-I may be wrong.
This is not enough. I'd suggest buying-in for $300 and having at least another $200 ready to go.
First of all, semi-bluffing is betting a hand which you don't think is best, you think betting has a good chance of either
(a) picking up the pot immediately
or
(b) improving on a draw
It is exceedingly rare to execute a semi-bluff by check-raising, or to semi-bluff with middle pair and no drawing chances. A two-pair draw is not a draw.
You claim to be betting for value here when you conclude that no-one has an Ace. (I don't necessarily agree with this assessment.)
Even with the flop being checked around, my plan would still have been to check with the intention of folding every round in which I did not improve my hand.
Middle pair goes into the muck.
I would have folded this hand pre-flop in a non-blind position.
If actually in a blind, I would have checked (or completed 1 bet from the SB). I probably would have bet out on the flop, check-called the turn, and check-raised the river, unless there was significant action, or the board appeared threatening. Something as little-threatening as a 9 on board makes my river play a check-call one bet instead.
I would have raised the TT pre-flop most of the time, then bet out the flop. I'll bet the turn here, and check-call one bet on the river. With 5 cards on board 9 or lower, your chances of being beaten by a small suited connector (or 1 gap) that makes two pair or a straight are far to great to go for a value bet here.
I would generally merely call pre-flop with this hand, unless the case here was that it was folded to you. I like your betting the turn. However, I would bet the turn and river for value. Attempting check-raises on either street will merely leave you with many missed bets in the long run.
Perfectly played, if you check-folded the river, or if it went check-check. If you paid off a bet on the river, that’s certainly not a bad play. But I'll tell you WTF is going on. People will chase bare Aces. And worse. This is why you will win the money if you know how to adjust to these sorts of players.
I would have capped the flop betting. Next is the most important play of the whole post, I think.
Bet out the flop. If it comes back to you raised and re-raised, you fold. That's right, fold your KK overpair.
If it comes back to you only raised on the flop, you can maybe call one more bet assuming you *might* be winning. Even this is wishful thinking, but not as unreasonable as if it came back 2 more bets to call. But you must proceed very cautiously. It’s one of those “don’t mind giving free cards because you may already be losing†examples. In this case, I would check-call one bet on the turn, and do the same on the river. Check-fold if an A, Q, or 7 comes off on either street.
Look at how much useful *information* you can get for such a little price ($5) by coming out betting on the flop and showing strength. This allows you to *clearly* define your opponents' hands as being better than yours when it comes back raised and re-raised. At a very minimum, there is AA out there which beats you. The re-raise is key. The person making it 3 bets is saying, “I’ve got AA, or I can beat AA.â€
If I had to guess, this is the hand where you lost the most money relative to how much you should have.
J9, Q9, T8 are trash, not marginal. Even if suited, they are below average, and not playable in most situations.
This is simply a nightmare. You do not want to play like bad players play.
You will lose by getting into this frame of mind. You will lose *big time* if you allow this frame of mind to actually influence your play.
Fold pre-flop. This is a trash hand. Your check-call on the turn after making the baby flush is pretty brutal. Bet out. You can't let everyone who has a heart over a 4 get a free river card. Bet the river for value if it doesn’t 4-flush or pair.
Generally a bad hand pre-flop, playable *maybe* on the button or cutoff with many limpers. Even in the best case, still worth folding I think. Bet the flop, or maybe go for a check-raise in cases when you came in from a blind. Check-call is not very good. Remember, you’re in there with *chasers*. They will chase, and you will make money from them calling your bets.
Bet the turn. You will probably get raised and get the chance to make it 3 bets against the guy with the straight. You end up winning 4 big bets from him instead of 3, *and* you'll extract even more money from out-of-line chasers (hey, I think I might have just coined a useful low-limit term there) on the turn.
It's not a tournament.
Don't play differently with different stack sizes. I'm amazed at how common a mistake this is. More common is actually the opposite of what you did. Many bad players will start with their buy-in and play far too loosely, taking some pretty wild swings. After they lose about half of their buy-in, they tend to pucker up certain parts of their bodies, and start playing *considerably* tighter, although, still too loose. It's as if they are gambling addicts who suddenly see and hear the ***Alert: Condition Red*** signal that they will have to quite playing when (not if) they finally get down to the fel, so they start guarding their chips like they’re worth real money or something like that.
Forget I said the "It's as if" part.
Odds against being dealt a pocket pair are 16 to 1. If you were dealt them once per orbit that's abnormally more often than usual.
In the long run, you don't get cold cards. You get cards which you can play correctly, or incorrectly.
Your decisions matter, not your cards. You have full control over one, and no control over the other.
22 is a brutal hand to play through pre-flop raises.
A maniac is a rarity at Brantford $5-$10. A table full of loose-passives is the norm.
Very typical. Adjust your own play to take this into account.
I can believe it. It's called variance.
To this day, the biggest low-limit single session win I've ever booked in my entire life was my 3rd session overall. Up $495 at $3-$6. I was an absolute beginner, and played absolutely awfully. I was the fish, and the fish was me. I was at one with the fish.
This leads into an important digression.
It was during that particular session that I was lucky enough that one of the kindest people in the world was in the seat next to me. I'm sure he had been watching me the whole night playing like a complete fish. Seeing nearly every flop, hands like A7o, T4s, 45o, you name it. Eventually, for some reason to this day unknown to me, he decided he had better help this poor kid out. One hand I showed down K7o for a rivered 2 pair after chasing a middle pair 7. I felt good. A few hands later (probably when I had finally folded a hand and he got a chance to say something to me), he referred me back to the K7o hand, and mentioned something like I shouldn't be playing that kind of hand pre-flop. Being young, inexperienced, and quite clueless, this just made me kind of mad (but I'm not the kind of person who would get outwardly mad in that kind of spot, thank goodness), and I believe I just brushed off his comment.
Soon after that, I had what I might even go so far as the epiphany of my poker career. Clearly, at the time, I had no idea that an event of any magnitude was even going on.
A few hands later, I happened to attempt engaging this man again with some questions about how I was playing. He quizzed me on my poker experience, and training, to which I had responded with pretty much a blank look. He then tried to teach me a bit while playing (never violating the "one player to a hand rule" of course). He let me sweat his cards sometimes when I was out of the hand. Without even directly saying anything directly to the effect, he encouraged me to learn more about poker.
To make a long story end soon, the majority of the things he told me were simply *amazing* to me. Ace-rag is no good? I shouldn't raise flush draw? Don't call two cold pre-flop with KJo? I was stunned.
After the gentle mist of bedazzlement began to lift from my mind, it was replaced with the crushing brick wall of cluelessness. It suddenly dawned on me that I had no idea what I was doing. I didn't know the first thing about playing poker. I realized that something had to be done. Quickly. Something big. Something like learning about poker. I got the hell out of there with my $495.
You might say that ScottyZ was born that day.
The next day, I looked into getting some poker books. I found the U of A online site to practise poker. I found IRC poker. I got some poker books. I read about poker. I read and read. I practised and read. I got some more poker books.
I only came to realize the real magnitude of what that guy at the Palace Casino $3-$6 did for me much later. His pure selflessness in "educating the fish", to his own financial detriment (and everyone else’s at the table) I’m sure. His genuine caring. His openness in helping me out even after I had brushed off his initial comment about the K7o.
One might at this point infer some reason for me putting forth this very post. One might be right.
Anyway, thanks for sticking with me on that one... back to the main event. 8)
You'll rarely be so lucky to cash out at your maximum chip level. You should stay in or leave a game based on many different factors: how you are feeling, if you have other things to do, if the players in the game have changed, if another game looks even better, to name a few. Chip stack size is not (directly) on the list. And it theoretically shouldn't be indirectly on the list.
It doesn't make sense to want to play against better quality players. If you can't beat bad players, your goal is to seek out worse players, not better.
It’s a smart move to recognize that you are not ready to move up to $10-$20. You deserve a lot of credit for making that decision. And I know there will be a time when you will be ready, if you truly want to make it happen.
In my opinion, your $5-$10 game needs considerable improvement. As I said at the beginning, I am not trying to flame you or attack you by saying these kinds of things. I was very much in the same jar of pickles once myself.
Read low-limit poker books. The Lee Jones book and the Dave Scharf book are both fantastic. I wish I would have had one of these books *much* sooner in my own poker career. Dave took too long
, but I've got no-one to blame but myself for not picking up the Lee Jones book earlier on.
My next session will probably be Friday, since I don't work that day. Take care until then...[/quote]
Finally, you may or may not have noticed that I deleted exactly one word from the quoted material. This was intentional.
Well, thanks and congratulations to anyone who actually read this far.
Good luck. But far more importantly, Good play.
ScottyZ
Jay, try not to take this as a personal attack or anything like that, but I see many significant mistakes here. If I was in your shoes (also see below) I would probably hate me for saying some of these things as a first reaction, but I would possibly thank me later. (Did I use enough first person there for everyone? Hopefully you get the idea...)
Massive disclaimers:
-All of the hand histories are missing quite a bit of information, but I am doing my best at filling in the details with things I think are typical of Brantford $5-$10. I am often missing vital information like what your opponents in particular hands are like, your position, sometimes actual actions are missing.
-The length might be a little much, due to the number of hands. I tried to set it up so it would be easy to read in small chunks.
-I may be wrong.
Jay wrote:I'm going to post trip reports on each session that I play at the Brantford Casino throughout the summer. I'll probably play around 2-3 session per week, depending on my work hours for the week.
I sat down at the usual $5/$10 table with $140.
This is not enough. I'd suggest buying-in for $300 and having at least another $200 ready to go.
I kickstarted with a win on the first hand I played from the BB:
I pick up J9o and check. The flop is A J x. Checks all around, and the turn is an 8. I knew no one had an ace so check-raised, and everyone folded. This was the only time I tried semi-bluffing all night because I knew that I couldn't bluff most of these guys, who would call with any piece of the board.
First of all, semi-bluffing is betting a hand which you don't think is best, you think betting has a good chance of either
(a) picking up the pot immediately
or
(b) improving on a draw
It is exceedingly rare to execute a semi-bluff by check-raising, or to semi-bluff with middle pair and no drawing chances. A two-pair draw is not a draw.
You claim to be betting for value here when you conclude that no-one has an Ace. (I don't necessarily agree with this assessment.)
Even with the flop being checked around, my plan would still have been to check with the intention of folding every round in which I did not improve my hand.
Middle pair goes into the muck.
Other hands:
I pick up QJo and I flop top pair, Queens. I check-call. The turn is a rag, I check-call. The river is a J, and I check-raise. I beat AQo on the river. That was a close one.
I would have folded this hand pre-flop in a non-blind position.
If actually in a blind, I would have checked (or completed 1 bet from the SB). I probably would have bet out on the flop, check-called the turn, and check-raised the river, unless there was significant action, or the board appeared threatening. Something as little-threatening as a 9 on board makes my river play a check-call one bet instead.
I pick up TT and the flop is 9 high. I check-raise, only a couple left. The turn is a rag, I bet and only one left. The river is a 7, and I bet. I lose to 97o, two pairs.
I would have raised the TT pre-flop most of the time, then bet out the flop. I'll bet the turn here, and check-call one bet on the river. With 5 cards on board 9 or lower, your chances of being beaten by a small suited connector (or 1 gap) that makes two pair or a straight are far to great to go for a value bet here.
I pick up AcJc and raise in middle-late position. I flop top pair, Jacks. I bet and get one caller. The turn is an A, and I check-raise. The river is a rag, and I check-raise. The caller had KK to my top two pair. Thank, idiot.
I would generally merely call pre-flop with this hand, unless the case here was that it was folded to you. I like your betting the turn. However, I would bet the turn and river for value. Attempting check-raises on either street will merely leave you with many missed bets in the long run.
I pick up KK and raise in middle position. All undercards to the turn, and I was betting both rounds. The river is an A, and I just check it. Some idiot was calling me the whole time and hit an ace at the end. WTF.
Perfectly played, if you check-folded the river, or if it went check-check. If you paid off a bet on the river, that’s certainly not a bad play. But I'll tell you WTF is going on. People will chase bare Aces. And worse. This is why you will win the money if you know how to adjust to these sorts of players.
I pick up KK again, raise preflop and call a re-raise. The flop is 9 8 2, the betting is capped with three players. The turn is a rag, and I check-raise. The river is another rag, and I check-raise again. One guy has AA and the other guy has 99 for a set. Took a big hit there, as did the guy with AA. I should've known one of them made a set when the betting was capped on the flop. Stupid me...
I would have capped the flop betting. Next is the most important play of the whole post, I think.
Bet out the flop. If it comes back to you raised and re-raised, you fold. That's right, fold your KK overpair.
If it comes back to you only raised on the flop, you can maybe call one more bet assuming you *might* be winning. Even this is wishful thinking, but not as unreasonable as if it came back 2 more bets to call. But you must proceed very cautiously. It’s one of those “don’t mind giving free cards because you may already be losing†examples. In this case, I would check-call one bet on the turn, and do the same on the river. Check-fold if an A, Q, or 7 comes off on either street.
Look at how much useful *information* you can get for such a little price ($5) by coming out betting on the flop and showing strength. This allows you to *clearly* define your opponents' hands as being better than yours when it comes back raised and re-raised. At a very minimum, there is AA out there which beats you. The re-raise is key. The person making it 3 bets is saying, “I’ve got AA, or I can beat AA.â€
If I had to guess, this is the hand where you lost the most money relative to how much you should have.
I went up and down a few times during the session. I was up to as high as $400 and down to around $100. I got cold cards for a period of 2 hours and lost some money from blinds and playing marginal hands (J9, Q9, T8, etc.).
J9, Q9, T8 are trash, not marginal. Even if suited, they are below average, and not playable in most situations.
Then I got sick of waiting for good cards and played cards that seemed to be winning for all of the bad players:
This is simply a nightmare. You do not want to play like bad players play.
You will lose by getting into this frame of mind. You will lose *big time* if you allow this frame of mind to actually influence your play.
I pick up 4h3h and limp in. The flop comes two hearts. I hit my flush on the turn and check-call. On the river, I check-raised and took the pot.
Fold pre-flop. This is a trash hand. Your check-call on the turn after making the baby flush is pretty brutal. Bet out. You can't let everyone who has a heart over a 4 get a free river card. Bet the river for value if it doesn’t 4-flush or pair.
I pick up 6s5s and limp in. The flop is 7 6 6, and I check-call. The turn is a rag, and I check-raise. The river is a 5, and I check-raise. My boat beat some guy's turned straight.
Generally a bad hand pre-flop, playable *maybe* on the button or cutoff with many limpers. Even in the best case, still worth folding I think. Bet the flop, or maybe go for a check-raise in cases when you came in from a blind. Check-call is not very good. Remember, you’re in there with *chasers*. They will chase, and you will make money from them calling your bets.
Bet the turn. You will probably get raised and get the chance to make it 3 bets against the guy with the straight. You end up winning 4 big bets from him instead of 3, *and* you'll extract even more money from out-of-line chasers (hey, I think I might have just coined a useful low-limit term there) on the turn.
After I got my stack back up, I tightened up again.
It's not a tournament.
Don't play differently with different stack sizes. I'm amazed at how common a mistake this is. More common is actually the opposite of what you did. Many bad players will start with their buy-in and play far too loosely, taking some pretty wild swings. After they lose about half of their buy-in, they tend to pucker up certain parts of their bodies, and start playing *considerably* tighter, although, still too loose. It's as if they are gambling addicts who suddenly see and hear the ***Alert: Condition Red*** signal that they will have to quite playing when (not if) they finally get down to the fel, so they start guarding their chips like they’re worth real money or something like that.
Forget I said the "It's as if" part.
I got cold cards again. All night, I never made a set with my pocket pairs which I got maybe once an orbit.
Odds against being dealt a pocket pair are 16 to 1. If you were dealt them once per orbit that's abnormally more often than usual.
In the long run, you don't get cold cards. You get cards which you can play correctly, or incorrectly.
Your decisions matter, not your cards. You have full control over one, and no control over the other.
Throughout the session, I witnessed more quads than an Olympic track team. This one guy had 22 in the SB, and the betting was capped preflop. The flop was 22A, checks all around. The turn is another A, there's some betting and calling. The river is a rag, and the guy with quads check-raises. I also saw quad 5's, Q's, and T's.
22 is a brutal hand to play through pre-flop raises.
There's always an idiot/maniac at every table, last night was no different.
A maniac is a rarity at Brantford $5-$10. A table full of loose-passives is the norm.
This guy played pretty much any hand.
Very typical. Adjust your own play to take this into account.
This one time he played 32o and hit his 2 on the flop and bet out. The river was another 2. WTF. He also raised preflop with 42o once and managed to flop the nut straight, everyone folded on the flop. He was cracking everyone's overpairs with ridiculous hand that hit two pairs or trips. I forget how much he started with, but he cashed out with around $1,000. I couldn't believe how a player who plays almost any "decent" hand, regardless of position, can win that much in a single session.
I can believe it. It's called variance.
To this day, the biggest low-limit single session win I've ever booked in my entire life was my 3rd session overall. Up $495 at $3-$6. I was an absolute beginner, and played absolutely awfully. I was the fish, and the fish was me. I was at one with the fish.
This leads into an important digression.
It was during that particular session that I was lucky enough that one of the kindest people in the world was in the seat next to me. I'm sure he had been watching me the whole night playing like a complete fish. Seeing nearly every flop, hands like A7o, T4s, 45o, you name it. Eventually, for some reason to this day unknown to me, he decided he had better help this poor kid out. One hand I showed down K7o for a rivered 2 pair after chasing a middle pair 7. I felt good. A few hands later (probably when I had finally folded a hand and he got a chance to say something to me), he referred me back to the K7o hand, and mentioned something like I shouldn't be playing that kind of hand pre-flop. Being young, inexperienced, and quite clueless, this just made me kind of mad (but I'm not the kind of person who would get outwardly mad in that kind of spot, thank goodness), and I believe I just brushed off his comment.
Soon after that, I had what I might even go so far as the epiphany of my poker career. Clearly, at the time, I had no idea that an event of any magnitude was even going on.
A few hands later, I happened to attempt engaging this man again with some questions about how I was playing. He quizzed me on my poker experience, and training, to which I had responded with pretty much a blank look. He then tried to teach me a bit while playing (never violating the "one player to a hand rule" of course). He let me sweat his cards sometimes when I was out of the hand. Without even directly saying anything directly to the effect, he encouraged me to learn more about poker.
To make a long story end soon, the majority of the things he told me were simply *amazing* to me. Ace-rag is no good? I shouldn't raise flush draw? Don't call two cold pre-flop with KJo? I was stunned.
After the gentle mist of bedazzlement began to lift from my mind, it was replaced with the crushing brick wall of cluelessness. It suddenly dawned on me that I had no idea what I was doing. I didn't know the first thing about playing poker. I realized that something had to be done. Quickly. Something big. Something like learning about poker. I got the hell out of there with my $495.
You might say that ScottyZ was born that day.
The next day, I looked into getting some poker books. I found the U of A online site to practise poker. I found IRC poker. I got some poker books. I read about poker. I read and read. I practised and read. I got some more poker books.
I only came to realize the real magnitude of what that guy at the Palace Casino $3-$6 did for me much later. His pure selflessness in "educating the fish", to his own financial detriment (and everyone else’s at the table) I’m sure. His genuine caring. His openness in helping me out even after I had brushed off his initial comment about the K7o.
One might at this point infer some reason for me putting forth this very post. One might be right.
Anyway, thanks for sticking with me on that one... back to the main event. 8)
I ended up losing $140 in my ten hour session. Not that bad considering a bunch of other players had to re-buy multiple times within hours of sitting down, but I should've known to cash out when I was up to around $300-400.
You'll rarely be so lucky to cash out at your maximum chip level. You should stay in or leave a game based on many different factors: how you are feeling, if you have other things to do, if the players in the game have changed, if another game looks even better, to name a few. Chip stack size is not (directly) on the list. And it theoretically shouldn't be indirectly on the list.
I'm already considering jumping up to the $10/$20 tables, just for the sake of playing with better quality players. But I'll wait until I can beat the $5/$10 consistently, and build up a bankroll.
It doesn't make sense to want to play against better quality players. If you can't beat bad players, your goal is to seek out worse players, not better.
It’s a smart move to recognize that you are not ready to move up to $10-$20. You deserve a lot of credit for making that decision. And I know there will be a time when you will be ready, if you truly want to make it happen.
In my opinion, your $5-$10 game needs considerable improvement. As I said at the beginning, I am not trying to flame you or attack you by saying these kinds of things. I was very much in the same jar of pickles once myself.
Read low-limit poker books. The Lee Jones book and the Dave Scharf book are both fantastic. I wish I would have had one of these books *much* sooner in my own poker career. Dave took too long
, but I've got no-one to blame but myself for not picking up the Lee Jones book earlier on.My next session will probably be Friday, since I don't work that day. Take care until then...[/quote]
Finally, you may or may not have noticed that I deleted exactly one word from the quoted material. This was intentional.
Well, thanks and congratulations to anyone who actually read this far.
Good luck. But far more importantly, Good play.
ScottyZ
Comments
I don't agree with this. It's not a semi-bluff and I don't agree with the check-raise, but at most tables I would probably bet out on the turn and try to pick the pot up. If I get raised I have to stop and think (depends on who raised me) but I would have no trouble folding it if I thought I was losing at that point.
If someone bet into me on the turn I MAY even raise (but then check the river if its checked to me if I don't improve, and DEFINITELY fold if I am re-raised, unless it's by a COMPLETE maniac). It all depends on the type of players you are up against. But overall, I think that checking and folding every time with middle pair is a little bit weak.
Really? I love this hand in a loose passive game. These are exactly the sort of hands that you can play profitably in a standard Brantford $5/$10 game, that you couldn't play profitably in a tougher game.
Of course, you have to be able to get away from it on the turn when you flop top pair and are losing. I would certainly not check-call with it all the way to the river, UNLESS I was in a game against maniacs. This is the loose passive play that will cost you money. Betting out on the flop serves two purposes here: helps to protect your hand if its good (because it sure is vulnerable) and gives you some idea as to whether or not you are winning. On the turn, you have to make your decision. If the hand is not good enough to bet out on the turn, it is certainly not good enough to check-call the turn and river to find out if it is good. Again, the exception here is if you are playing maniacs... check-calling your marginally good hands becomes sensible then (Caro has an article about this somewhere... ahh here it is. The last paragraph of http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/archives/caro24.htm).
I agree with this. I find that in most games it is better to be aggressive with TT. Maybe if you raise pre-flop, 97o isnt there to take the pot (then again, maybe it is). Still, you have to make em pay to draw.
Again, agreed. Although I don't mind the preflop raise... it's a close decision. I'd probably favour calling here at $5/$10, because the mistake that most players here make is calling when they should fold, and I don't want to discourage that. How do the kings not raise pre-flop (there's another mistake that $5/$10 players make.. calling when they should raise)?
You mean pre-flop? Me, too. Get the money in when you think you are winning.
At $5/$10? Maybe, against certain players. I don't know though. It is quite possible that you are winning here even if it comes back raised and re-raised. Someone might have Ace-9. Someone might have a straight draw and be playing it strongly. Someone might have queens. Or Jacks. Even 10s. Simply put, there are LOTS of combinations of hands that people could have if it comes back raised and re-raised... and I think that you are winning a significant portion of the time. Remember that, since there's dead money in the pot, you need to be winning less than 1/3 of the time to make calling down to the river profitable. You don't need to win every time you go to a showdown.
You absolutely must be joking. There is no way that you could even CONSIDER folding this hand to one raise against 99% of Brantford $5/$10 players. You don't need the nuts to go to the river. You don't even need to win 1/2 the time. In a multi-way pot you just need to be winning more than your fair share of the time. 1/3 of the time in a 3 way pot, 1/4 of the time in a 4 way pot. Less if you consider the significant amount of money that went in pre-flop, and is now dead money.
Not at $5/$10. At $5/$10 the person who re-raises is saying "I like my hand" and is not even THINKING about what anyone else at the table might have. He could have ANY overpair, or even less. Some people will re-raise with a straight draw. (It's a bad play IMO in this particular spot because you tend to drive people out, but people do it all the time)
Again, I think that all of these hands are playable for one small bet in late position in a loose-passive game, with at least 4 or 5 limpers already in (not including the blinds) Not playable in early position, and not playable if there are not a lot of people in, and CERTAINLY not playable against a raise. Not playable if the game is not loose-passive. Not playable if you are not capable of outplaying your opponents post-flop. Not playable if you feel the need to go to the river every time you make a pair.
If it doesn't pair?? You leave a bet on the table because you are scared of a full house? In a game where you are likely to get called by 3rd pair? That's just weak. Those river bets that you lose (not win = lose) will really add up in the long term.
Yeah this hand was pretty badly played. Check-call when you are winning, then check-raise when you are losing, then get lucky and river the guy. I like the check-raise on the end purely for the humour value. Getting check-raised on two consecutive streets is just embarrassing. Fool me once...
Was Edna the one with the deuces? Was he the one that capped it?
It's not that rare. It depends when you go.
You shouldn't raise a flush draw? Well, sometimes you should. It can be a good value bet (particularly on the flop) and a good semi-bluff (particularly on the turn).
Keith
The TT vs. 97o hand, I did make it 2 bets to go preflop.
I raised preflop with AcJc to get out the junk hands that these players tend to see a flop for $5 with.
I might've exaggerated the being dealt pockets once an orbit. But the part about them never hitting was not exaggerated. I, at least, had the sense to chuck them after the flop unless they produced a straight draw or were an overpair which wasn't that often in itself.
Thanks for the analyses guys. Your posts have helped me prepare for tomorrow, unless something comes up and I end up not going.
Right. You can go a long time between sets. You get dealt a pocket pair once every 17 hands, and flop your set about 2 times in 17, so that works out to 2 sets every 289 hands. Depending on the speed of the game and the dealers, this works out to about once every 4 or 5 hours on average. So a session without flopping a set is not really all that uncommon. So, don't get too discouraged.
Keith
About the KK hand with flop 98x.
Lacking information, I am going on the player type of loose-passive. In case when it's raised and re-raised, I know what you're saying, that one of the players might be out of line. But it's going to me more likely than not that at least one of these hands beats Kings. Remember what passive means.
With just a raise on one bet back to you, I would call one more flop bet (I thought that's what I said...okay, I just checked and I merely said "maybe" with the implication that I normally wouldn't... that was too stongly negative), but I was trying to emphasize that it becomes time to *proceed with much more caution*. Since Jay actually check-raised the turn, and check-raised the river, I wanted to over-emphasise the fact that there is a realistic possibility that the KK is losing.
QJo to me is borderline and I wouldn't often play it myself, but it's probably close. I prefer playing more hands with monster potential, like pocket pairs, and suited Aces. These kinds of hands can generate a lot of action from second best hands when you hit them. I think that hands with high card strength like QJo, KTo, and even KJo go down quite a bit in a low-limit game. (Almost for exactly the same reason they go down in value in no-limit... they tend to lack "action implied odds")
ScottyZ
that was long
ConfusedONE must go now :shock: :shock: :shock:
I understand what you are saying here. But I find that the exception to this loose passive play seems to be any overpair. They play it like it's the nuts (a good strategy sometimes, but not always). I mean, don't get me wrong... I'm going to be WORRIED if it comes back raised and re-raised, and I'm not necessarily committing myself to going to the river... I'm just not convinced that I'm beat.. yet.
What I would probably do is just call the last $10. Now, if the next guy caps it, I am a lot more worried. Still, I have to call the last $5 as well since at this point I actually have outs to hit my king. I'm going to make my decision on the turn though.
On the turn I check. If player #2 checks as well, I immediately put him on a straight draw (a lot of people will play draws like this.. it isn't a great idea since you are risking driving people out, but people do it). If it checks around (unlikely but possible) I am betting the river unless an ace hits. If it comes back to me for only one bet (and the turn card was not an ace) I am probably going to close my eyes and call the $10 on the turn and $10 on the river and hope that I'm winning. I'm probably NOT winning but I don't need to be winning that often for this to be profitable. Player #3 could have, say, QQ or JJ, and would probably bet them on the turn if it was checked to him. If I check the turn, and it goes bet - raise and comes back to me for 2 bets, NOW I fold. I am certainly not getting caught in the middle of a raising war and putting $40 in on both streets ($80 total) to see if I am good (unless I am in against TOTAL maniacs... I mean, real, live, actual, bet or raise 90% of the time maniacs)
For sure. I wouldn't go nuts here, but I'm not letting the hand go either. I'd check-call the turn. If the turn's checked around, I bet the river (assuming no ace) and if I had to call a bet on the turn I check-call the river as well. Unless of course a king hits.. then I have to decide if I have a better shot of check-raising or getting the bet-raise-reraise in.
I want to share a hand that I played a couple of sessions ago. This was $5/$10. It isn't REALLY similar since there was not a lot of action post-flop, but... well here it is.
I have QQ on the button. The action goes raise, call, call, re-raise, cap, with a couple of folds in between. It gets to me capped with 5 people already in. Not sure that I'm winning, I call $20 cold. Both blinds call, and so do all the raisers/callers. We take the flop 8-handed (pot = $160). Note that even if I'm NOT winning, I almost have pot odds to flop a set. Flop is 876 with 2 diamonds. Its checked around to the capper, who bets. Still not sure that I'm winning, I raise. I lose 2 people and the capper just calls. We take the turn 6-handed. Pot = $220. The turn is another 7. Not a great card for me. Anyway it's checked to me so I bet. 4 callers. I don't get checkraised so I feel better. We see the river 5-handed. Pot = $270. The river is the deuce of clubs, a total blank. It checks around to the capper who now bets. Immediately I think of Edna, and think, if you capped it with pocket deuces I am going to jump over this table and strangle you. Anyway I just call (I no longer have a hand to protect, a raise is unlikely to force out a better hand, but may very well force out worse hands). I get two overcalls. Pot = $310. The capper flips over pocket 10s, I flip over my queens, and one overcaller flips over pocket jacks (the UTG raiser mucks). Send it!!!!
The best part is, one of the people who folded on the flop said that my raise forced him out, and he had a 7!!! I don't know how you pay $20 to see with flop with a 7 in your hand and then fold it for $10 in a $200 pot when you hit a pair and actually have a slim chance of improving your hand and winning the pot... but hey. The point is, if I just call on the flop I lose that pot. Also, I realize that this story probably supports your point of view more than mine (ie, the overpairs weren't raising and re-raising me) but imagine how you would feel at the end of that hand if you were the UTG raiser and held KK, bet out on the flop, the guy with pocket 10s raised, and I re-raised with my queens, and you FOLDED. You would have passed up the chance to win a $300 pot because you didn't want to put another $30 in. Certainly, your kings are good more than 1 time in 10.
The nice thing about QJ is that when you make a straight, you tend to get A LOT more action than you would if you make a straight with, say, 78. You are a lot more likely to get people with top pair, or even 2 pair, paying you off, because the cards that make your straight are also cards that people are more likely to be playing. Nothing like getting raised and re-raised when you have the nuts. The thing about it is, you are right, the high card value IS lower, which is why you have to be able to get away from it when you flop top pair and are losing. I prefer QJ to KT or even KJ in a loose passive game, not because it wins more pots (it doesn't) but because it wins more money.
The problem with suited aces is that when you make your flush it is there for the world to see, and doesn't tend to get paid off as well as a straight. But, this reminds me of a hand at my last session. I have Kh 7h. The flop comes Ah 6h 5h (flop the nuts!). I bet and get a couple of callers. Turn is the 4h. I bet and get 1 caller. River is a fifth heart. I bet out. The guy hesitates. I say, "I have to warn you, I have a flush". He laughs, says, "so do I", and calls. I say "I flopped it" and flip over my hand. He shows K9... no pair, no heart, drawing completely dead from the flop. Umm... yeah... nice hand buddy.
Keith
LOL @ the flopped nuts hand. I love players like that. 8)
Like crap. But I think I would have to have played KK (probably even any pair 99 or above too) through a flop cap in this particular hand. The difference is that I think I even have close to the right implied odds to attempt to spike a 2-outer, in addition to maybe having the best hand already. (which, as you mentioned, maybe should have been what the pair of 7's was trying to do for 2 bets). The difference here was that Jay's pot (I think) was 3 handed, whereas here, there are so many players that the potential for a ***ginormous*** pot is there. I think I am seeing the river here with KK.
Hey, I did almost exactly the same thing a couple of weeks ago when the final board showed 234 6 5 (no flush possible) and I had a 57 in my hand (I had no reason to think I was up against 78, since I was last to act on the river.) I bet out, and the next guy paused. I go, "I've got a straight" and chuckled. Call, call.
My initial reaction was annoyance at the river 5, but I quickly realized that was the perfect card for me, despite the remote chance of someone bending me over with 78. 8)
ScottyZ
Yeah. I just wanted to make the point that sometimes you have to see the river even if you think that you are losing.
Yeah, this reminds me of something that Mike Caro says in his section of Super System. If you want them to call, just keep talking. They WANT to call. They showed up to play some hands, not to fold. If they are in doubt, hopefully something that you say will trigger their "calling mechanism" as he calls it. I'm surprised how often this works. You'd think that people would be too smart to fall for this, but no.
78 is pretty unlikely but I'm surprised you don't end up chopping with a hand like 67. That would be my first instinct as soon as the 5 fell.
Keith
PS This is post # 75 for me!!!!!
Scotty, I'm not trying to "diss" you but you played 75 here and you're telling me that hand like J9, Q9 are garbage. Unless you were in the BB, you're making yourself sound like a hypocrite. I just had to point that out...
In other words, you saying wou played Q9 with no additional information to go on, I am going to call that a trash hand. Because it is so in most situations.
If you said it was Q9s on the button after 6 limpers, it's a calling hand, certainly not trash.
As for my 75, it must have been a 75s (sorry for the omission), and it must have been an ideal situation, like in late position after many limpers. I'd play a lot of hands I'd still call "trash" if the situation was right. I would have played J9s and Q9s in an identical situation, but I still would say that 75s, Q9s, J9s are bad hands as a general statement. I'll admit that calling the suited versions trash is probably going to far, they are merely bad. (Again, in most situations.) Unsuited, they are quite a bit worse still.
ScottyZ
I didn't mean to offend you in anyway. I know you're a great player and I'mm sure you played the hand in the right situation and everything. 8)
Me, write a long post? Nah...
No, of course you didn't offend me. Challenging each other about poker stuff one of the things this forum is all about, I think.
And thanks for your confidence in my play, but let me assure you that I make more than my share of mistakes, and I am always trying to improve. I meant it strongly and seriously when I said, "I may be wrong."
And, do take the things I said in the original hand analysis post with quite a few grains of salt. For a lot of the hands I didn't know enough of the details, so I had to make some educated guesses. I'm sure there were a lot of spots where I made mistakes, sometimes because I didn't have enough information about the hand details, sometimes because I made a mistake pure and simple.
Also have a good look at MiamiKeith's response to my post. He's got a lot of excellent ideas, and he offers many good improvements and/or alternatives to my original ideas.
From what I have seen so far, I think you've got more than your fair share of "raw poker talent". A lot of us here on the forum do. Hopefully we can all help each other in becoming better.
ScottyZ