To Tight? Or To Aggressive?
Playing in the prestigous Bristol Street Championship. The Champions tournament. This event is only comprised of the Bristol St. Champions and top point leaders from the entire year. Started with 18 players, we're down to 5. Pay outs are top 4, 1st $400 2nd $220  3rd $100  4th $20 (extra pizza money). The buy in was $40. Everyone is only playing to win, money means nothing to me for this one.Â
Here are the approximate chip counts:
Small Blind: Mark 20K
Big Blind: Brad 32K
UTG: Mario 75K
Hero: 35K
Ty: 25K
Blinds are 800/1600 (200)
UTG Mario leads out with a raise of 4800 (total), a very typical raise. He has been raising with any decent 5 handed hand, this would include QJ, Painted Aces, medium aces, small pair on the same token he could actually have a hand. Mario will make large continuation bets.Â
I look down and see AKo. I've played this hand twice this evening and have lost both of them and have a bad feeling about them, vowed to not lose my tournament with this particular hand. I've also battled back after being last in chips with 16 players remaining by just chipping away and not having many big confrontations. I also know that there is a desperate player behind me (Mark) who has been pushing with anything mediocre. We have already played or an hour 5 handed and it doesn't look as though anyone wants to make a play that doesn't gaurantee them at least a 65% edge. What's my play? What's your play?
Ok so here is the result, I fold ...obviously.
Mark pushed with AK and Mario calls with KQ. Mark doubles up with the rag board. I think it was a good fold because, as you can see, Mario will call with A LOT of hands. Which means any pair, why race with the chip leader when you've been doing fine without large confrontations...Thanks for the input. By the way, I went on to win it when Mark raised preflop all in with 1010, got re-raised all in by Brad and were both called by me (the chip leader) with KK. I thought about that call for about 2 minutes.Â
stp
Here are the approximate chip counts:
Small Blind: Mark 20K
Big Blind: Brad 32K
UTG: Mario 75K
Hero: 35K
Ty: 25K
Blinds are 800/1600 (200)
UTG Mario leads out with a raise of 4800 (total), a very typical raise. He has been raising with any decent 5 handed hand, this would include QJ, Painted Aces, medium aces, small pair on the same token he could actually have a hand. Mario will make large continuation bets.Â
I look down and see AKo. I've played this hand twice this evening and have lost both of them and have a bad feeling about them, vowed to not lose my tournament with this particular hand. I've also battled back after being last in chips with 16 players remaining by just chipping away and not having many big confrontations. I also know that there is a desperate player behind me (Mark) who has been pushing with anything mediocre. We have already played or an hour 5 handed and it doesn't look as though anyone wants to make a play that doesn't gaurantee them at least a 65% edge. What's my play? What's your play?
Ok so here is the result, I fold ...obviously.
Mark pushed with AK and Mario calls with KQ. Mark doubles up with the rag board. I think it was a good fold because, as you can see, Mario will call with A LOT of hands. Which means any pair, why race with the chip leader when you've been doing fine without large confrontations...Thanks for the input. By the way, I went on to win it when Mark raised preflop all in with 1010, got re-raised all in by Brad and were both called by me (the chip leader) with KK. I thought about that call for about 2 minutes.Â
stp
Comments
I am of two minds on this...
If I am really worried about Mark, I raise to 10K and see what he does. You can always let it go if you don't like what you see.
or
Push all-in. Being on the bubble, I am guessing with everyone's behavior, you will take it right there, and be in good shape if UTG calls unless he has KK or even worse AA.
Take your pick. Me, I think I go with all-in.
I say you fold - only because of that statement. AKo needs a perfect flop (AAA or KKK) to allow you to be confident you shouldn't lose to an all-in post-flop raise (assuming you just call pre-flop and no one re-raises).
I agree. Myself - if I decide to play the hand I push all-in. Puts everyone to a decision.
If I was in that particular position, I'd be too tight and fold. If #1 is all that matters than AKo at that moment is too dicey.
I am of two minds on this...
If I am really worried about Mark, I raise to 10K and see what he does. You can always let it go if you don't like what you see.
ALWAYS be worried about Mark..
This hand ended up with me indeed going all in, and doubling up... with AK
Mark
Actually, if you're playing for the win, you need to push a bit here. Mario and Mark play such a wide range of hands that unless you have a solid read on them having AA or KK, you gotta play this hand, IMO. I'd raise to 20K, making Mark decide for all his chips. It also shows Mario you're willing to go all the way for your chips, gets you lots of fold equity, and if he raises, your hand plays well 3-ways. I also wouldn't go all-in, since you'd much rather play with Mark or both players, not Mario alone. In my mind pushing all-in makes it harder for Mark to call, and EVEN MARIO will probably only call if he's got painted pockets at worst.
I think a raise to 20K is too much. 10K should be about right. This is half of Mark's stack...if he is willing to put one foot in here, I think he will put both feet. A raise to 20K is more than half of your own stack, again...one foot , two foot. If Mario comes over the top on you, you are committed to go all-in, I think. With only 10K raise, you can let it go.
Thanks for the replies..
stp
Ya, I'd hate to get allin with AK vs KQ. Those situations blow. Curious as to the structure of this tourney, because it sounds like you have weeks to wait on AA or KK (which you might try a button steal with) before you put any chips into the pot. Maybe I'm missing something...
The reason why I took so long for the KK call was because I asked for a chip count, I don't like autocalling when I see a big pair. Brad is a very solid player and I had to think about the reasons why he would re-raise to isolate Mark. I figured AQ after some thought. I kept thinking to myself, Can I really lay this down? The answer was never yes and of course I called.
The blind structure was 30 minute intervals, starting with 10K in chips. It did allow for a lot of play, which IMO was great.
stp
Given that the raiser has a huge range for raising and calling, isn't AK going to be a monster EV favourite here? I don't understand why you'd hesitate to reraise or even push? How exactly do you expect to get any chips? Stealing? Given that you're this tight with AK, shouldn't any player pretty much auto-push vs your steal attempts, knowing that you'll instantly muck?
It seems lately that a lot of people want to get the money in as soon as possible and race for the win. A couple of things I remind myself of when playing tournaments is
a) Be patient the cards will come
b) It's a marathon, it's not a sprint
Remember also, I was down to 3000 chips with 16 players remaining and battled my way back to 2nd place. Why risk all of that work on a hand like AK against the chip leader. And, I did end up winning the tournament. I know this hand turned out not to be the right play but if he would have had any pair he would have won the hand and knocked out both Mark and myself.
Hope that helps where I was coming from.
stp
We could calculate an EV from pushing here to see if it is worthwhile. I prefer that over random hand waving which doesn't really prove anything. (If no one takes up the challenge, I'll look at this in a day or two..) I'm assuming the chances of Mario calling an all-in bet are 100%? The real concern you have is with people left to act behind you but we can also estimate a likelihood of someone else calling. Even with someone calling behind you with something as good as QQ, you still have way more pot equity than the chips you'd have to put in.
With your M in the 10 range, you have to be looking for spots to mix it up. What kind of hand do you think you'd have to have to make a move here? I'm curious, Champ.
He is able to let go of some hands when someone plays back all in. I highly doubt Mario would call an all in with anything less than the KQ he played... I know for a fact that he folded a pocket pair and an A-4 to a few all ins. This doesn't seem too tough of course, but I'm just saying he's not crazy, calling with 10-J or nothing like that.
As for that hand, Shannon was rightly afraid that I'd go all in. I was shorter stacked than anyone else, and was pushing in constantly, trying to steal what I could. A-K is okay against one hand, but had he had to call two? You figure then what, one guy's got a pocket pair, and the other an A-decent kicker? THere goes some of your outs!! I dont' blame him for the fold, I had position, and like he said, he did win! If I had had position on him with the 10 - 10, A-Q, K-K hand, i probably could have let it go.
Mark
Nice fold Shannon, I like the explaination of your thought process....had I been in your situation I think I would have pushed all-in with AK and after reading everything here I believe you made the right decision and it gave me food for thought which is what I believe this forum is for.
Reputation is huge, and it wins Mario a lot of pots when people push back at him only to find out that he's not nuts or not ALWAYS holding shit cards. Â This rep IMO works to his advantage. Â Unlucky for him on this hand, but, his reputation and fearlessness (not crazy) got a very good player to lay down a very good hand in what was a very important time in the tournament.
Unlucky for Mario that your shorter stack wasn't in a position to lay it down and you had a dominant hand that held up taking away the first chunk of his stack.
Personally in your position Shannon, I would have pushed, not because I don't respect Mario's bet, at this time in the tourney and the stack sizes where they are, i'd have given him credit for "some kind of" hand, but, I would think I'm still ahead.
You have AK in a five-handed game.
A player behind you who has been taking advantage of his shortstack by pushing with anything marginally good.
Understandably Mark will push anything good. But will he call off all his chips into a pot that contains a raise and a reraise with less than a premium hand? Probably not. I'm assuming he is aware of gap theory and your presence in the pot makes it even harder to call.
If Mario is unlikely to call the reraise, then I think stpboy HAS to take advantage of the hand and push.
Again, totally agree. When you factor in the strength of Shannon's hand combined with your short-stack and Mario's normal aggressiveness, you're ahead way too often to fold (in my opinion) compared to the times you'll be behind. If you happen to run into a hand occasionally, so what?
Mario raised, Shannon re-raises all in. I look down and see AK, I'm going all in as well, Mario would fold in this spot with his KQ.
Mark
I move in.
Mario has a big range of hands. He will, presumably, fold A LOT of them facing your all-in move. A-K cries out for fold equity pre-flop.
OK... Now i will peek at the results...
If you have an aversion to math, please turn your head away now. If you continue on, please let me know if I've made any mathematical errors.
First off, Mario could be raising with any 2 cards, being the big stack bully and all. If you push, you say he's not crazy so let's assume he'll only call with A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,JTo,QJo,KJo+,ATo+,99+. He's getting about 1.5 to 1 on his money so his range of hands might be a bit broader than you would expect with the average all-in caller. This represents approx 16% of all starting hands. You are a 62% favourite against these hands.
What about someone behind you? First of all, they've seen Mario raise and you re-raise all-in. You are second highest stack, so if they play, they are risking their tourney, unless they assume you are doing an isolation move against a maniac. Still, I'd say they're only going all-in with a very good hand, say AJs+, AQo+,TT+. They are getting maybe around 1.4 to 1 or less on their money. This represents approx 5% of all starting hands. You are almost dead even against this range.
So what are the scenarios when you go all in:
* Everyone else folds. Mario folds. This would happen in about 72% (i.e. (1-.16)*(.95^3)) of the expected cases. You gain 8200.
* You get at least one caller. Mario folds. This would happen 11.5% of the time (i.e. (1 - .95^3)*(1 - .16)). I'm going to ignore the case where you get two or three callers and just focus on a single caller. (The odds of multiple callers are small so the numbers become almost insignificant) In half of these cases, you lose let's say 25k (smaller stacks call you) and in half of them you win say 33k (smaller stack plus blinds)
* You get at least one caller. Mario calls. This would happen in approx 2.3% (i.e. (1 - .95^3)*.16) of the cases. You are 35% to win 63k. Ignore the split pot possibilities and say you are 65% to lose 35k. (If we included the split pot numbers, it actually is more attractive for you to push but the numbers get much more complicated)
* Everyone else folds. Mario calls. This would happen in approx 13.7% (i.e. .95^3*.16) of the cases. 38% of the time you lose 35k and 62% of the time you win 39.4k.
(The percents add up to almost 100 so that's a good sign! I did do a bit of rounding to keep it simple for me.)
Adding it all up... .72(8.2k) + .115(.5*33k - .5*25k) + .023(.35*63k - .65*.35k) + .137(.62*39.4k - .38*35k)
             5.9k +    .46k +             0 +                  11k
             approx 17.5k.
So, the EV of pushing given the above assumptions is 17.5k or about half your stack. I think it would have been a good move.
Now, you may not like some of my assumptions. Or maybe I'm math-challenged. Feel free to work through your own numbers. But I'm from Missouri so you'll have to show me!
Follow up question: Do you think Harrington or Hansen can do this in their heads?
stp
You do realize he's folding most of the time right, and when he doens't you're a 62% favourite? No offense, but you're not good enough to be passing these types of spots. By no offense i mean i don't think anyone is good enough that it's correct to fold here. I didn't read all the analysis but it sounds reasonable.
If I KNOW FOR SURE that I am a 62% favourite then I sprain my wrist shoving my chips in as fast as I can.
The problem is the "knowing" part.
But... it is hard spraining your wrist when you took a half hour to do the figuring on the 62%. It's good to go over these scenarios in advance to have the value at the ready.
SirWatts nailed the answer. 84% he takes a powder. You win 62% of the times he calls. If you are serious that winning is the ONLY objective here, you won't get many opportunities that are better.
You need to do the math for typical situations like this beforehand, then for situations similar you can add/subtract a few % to get an estimate depending how you feel the range is different than in the situations you've analyzed at home. You can't realistically do this on the spot.
*********** # 188 **************
PokerStars Game #3694211743: Tournament #18333461, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX
(300/600) - 2006/01/20 - 00:36:37 (ET)
Table '18333461 19' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: brat99 (11000 in chips)
Seat 2: badazzbob (35006 in chips)
Seat 3: stpboy77 (15930 in chips)
Seat 4: Stoweski (4720 in chips)
Seat 5: bjmulligan (19426 in chips)
Seat 6: mackayminer3 (27479 in chips)
Seat 7: keystone35 (7190 in chips)
Seat 8: lilezwitme (10310 in chips)
Seat 9: jklein0721 (13392 in chips)
brat99: posts the ante 50
badazzbob: posts the ante 50
stpboy77: posts the ante 50
Stoweski: posts the ante 50
bjmulligan: posts the ante 50
mackayminer3: posts the ante 50
keystone35: posts the ante 50
lilezwitme: posts the ante 50
jklein0721: posts the ante 50
Stoweski: posts small blind 300
bjmulligan: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to stpboy77 [Kc Ah]
mackayminer3: folds
keystone35: raises 1800 to 2400
lilezwitme: folds
jklein0721: folds
brat99: folds
badazzbob: calls 2400
stpboy77: folds
Stoweski: raises 2270 to 4670 and is all-in
bjmulligan: folds
keystone35: raises 2470 to 7140 and is all-in
badazzbob: calls 4740
*** FLOP *** [8s 8h 2c]
keystone35 said, "2 outs"
stpboy77 said, "folded AK"
*** TURN *** [8s 8h 2c] [6s]
*** RIVER *** [8s 8h 2c 6s] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
keystone35: shows [Kh Kd] (two pair, Kings and Eights)
badazzbob: shows [As Js] (a flush, Ace high)
badazzbob collected 4940 from side pot
Stoweski: shows [Ac Jd] (a pair of Eights)
keystone35 said, "or that bs"
badazzbob collected 15060 from main pot
Wolffhound [observer] said, "GJ STP"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 20000 Main pot 15060. Side pot 4940. | Rake 0
Board [8s 8h 2c 6s 4s]
Seat 1: brat99 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: badazzbob showed [As Js] and won (20000) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: stpboy77 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Stoweski (small blind) showed [Ac Jd] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 5: bjmulligan (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: mackayminer3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: keystone35 showed [Kh Kd] and lost with two pair, Kings and Eights
Seat 8: lilezwitme folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: jklein0721 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
After looking at the hand a second time, I'm thinking to myself that I clearly play to tight sometimes. Although, these types of folds rarely have me regretting my play.
stp
That is all.