Bracing for the downturn...
OK, I've seen numerous threads about what to do when the cards have turned sour, you constantly seem to be on tilt, and basically nothing is going your way, but little discussion of the complete opposite variance run.
Basically, I've been running extremely hot the last 2-3 months in 2-4. Crushing the game, but all the while having the gnawing feeling that the inevitable apocalypse is coming. Should I even be worrying about it, or just enjoying the good run while it lasts, continuing to play solid? I figure the next "test" will to weather the impending storm, trying not to amplify the downturn through tilt-induced stupidity...
Basically, I've been running extremely hot the last 2-3 months in 2-4. Crushing the game, but all the while having the gnawing feeling that the inevitable apocalypse is coming. Should I even be worrying about it, or just enjoying the good run while it lasts, continuing to play solid? I figure the next "test" will to weather the impending storm, trying not to amplify the downturn through tilt-induced stupidity...
Comments
Stop raising T7o?
The only REAL concern is if you've NEVER been through the rough period. It's amazing how the simplest decisions can become questioned when you are mired in your -200BB swing.
-200BB scares me a bit. I don't think I've hit THAT bad of a run yet. I've probably had mini-bad runs down maybe 100-150 BB before though. I guess the incredible upswing I'm currently on just reminds me of the significance variance factor and how things can easily go bad. I think most people assume when they're on an upswing it's because they're playing great and when they're losing it's because they're unlucky. I'm just trying to keep things in perspective and not go insane when variance swings the other way. For now let the good times roll!
If you are concerned that you are only getting lucky etc...check your stats/Poker Tracker etc to see where your money is coming from during this run. If you find you made all your money hitting your 2 outers then yes...get ready for a severe whacking in the near future.
If things don't look out of whack...keep playing good poker and looking to plug the leaks that you do find.
Damn you Wolf. I looked at PT and my stats scare me even MORE. As I'm feeling charitable lately I open it up to the forum to guess what my current win streak with AA is (playing primarily 2-4 between Party and PR). Closest guess I'll transfer $5 through Stars or neteller to the winner (hey, I'm still a LL grinder unlike some members here). Or maybe since the streak is still in effect I'll open it up to how long until it's broken. In short this run definately makes me think "online poker is rigged". A statistical impossibility in my mind, more so than AA losing consecutively to underpair hands that hit their set.
95% ??
Sorry, should have clarified: "How many times CONSECUTIVELY (during this run) have I won with AA?" And yes, the streak is still alive...
Ohhhhhh ok I get it. 2-3 months of play...... I'll say 80 times. I really have no idea, but hey I love guessing games.
No...damn you Scooby...there's two FF's in Wolff. (mental note to all you other SOB's that leave it out...pet peeve #101)
I didn't suggest it to scare you, but, I find that its just as important to check through hands on a GREAT run, as it is on a -200BB swing. I get caught up in "i'm a young Brunson (weightwise included)" while i'm on a upswing and ignore that I've donk'd my way to most of the money.
There have been several things said about PT...but, I think it can play a big part in fine tuning your game and quieting some of the voices in your head.
Good luck SkuobieD, and I'll be sure to stay off your table during your hot run!!!!!
LMAO. Thanks Wolff.
Actually, thats the biggest blind giveaway this forum has ever seen.
I'm gonna say like 12 times in a row.
Whichever
Texas Hold'em $2-$4 (real money), hand #1,526,867,391
Table Durban, 28 Nov 2005 9:49 PM ET
Seat 1: ScoobD [ AD,AH ]
Seat 2: MacCommons
Seat 3: dqueen22
Seat 4: MyTurn2Raze
Seat 5: crazy 28
Seat 6: AAloseragain
Seat 7: William14
Seat 8: bfma
Seat 9: lorrella
Seat 10: B8ender22
ANTES/BLINDS
crazy 28 posts blind ($1), AAloseragain posts blind ($2).
PRE-FLOP
William14 bets $4, bfma folds, lorrella folds, B8ender22 folds, ScoobD bets $6, MacCommons calls $6, dqueen22 folds, MyTurn2Raze bets $8, crazy 28 folds, AAloseragain folds, William14 folds, ScoobD calls $2, MacCommons calls $2.
FLOP [board cards 6D,8C,6S ]
ScoobD bets $2, MacCommons calls $2, MyTurn2Raze bets $4, ScoobD bets $4, MacCommons calls $4, MyTurn2Raze bets $4, ScoobD calls $2, MacCommons calls $2.
TURN [board cards 6D,8C,6S,QD ]
ScoobD checks, MacCommons checks, MyTurn2Raze bets $4, ScoobD bets $8, MacCommons calls $4.10 and is all-in, MyTurn2Raze calls $4.
RIVER [board cards 6D,8C,6S,QD,KH ]
ScoobD bets $4, MyTurn2Raze bets $8, ScoobD calls $4.
SHOWDOWN
MyTurn2Raze shows [ KC,KS ]
ScoobD mucks cards [ AD,AH ]
MacCommons mucks cards
MyTurn2Raze wins $89.10.
SUMMARY
Dealer: MyTurn2Raze
Pot: $91.10 | Rake: $2
ScoobD loses $32
MacCommons loses $20.10
dqueen22 loses $0
MyTurn2Raze bets $32, collects $89.10, net $57.10
crazy 28 loses $1
AAloseragain loses $2
William14 loses $4
bfma loses $0
lorrella loses $0
B8ender22 loses $0
Plaxus on stars.
Quit now while you're ahead...cash in the streak...
there are 300 and 400 BB downswings waiting in the wings too.
and those 30k hands of breakeven are annoying as hell too.