Make the money or play to win?
I am interested to hear the responses of some regular tourney players.
Stars $500K on Sunday. With Blinds of 1K -2K and 400 players left, I lose a big pot when my J high flush is beat. My stack goes from average (20K) to desperate 8K.
I then post my antes and blinds for a round and a half and am down to 5400 after posting my SB.
At this point there are 329 players left and 324th gets $341.
I decide that unless I get AA, I am going to simply "hang on" until I get to the money as I had invested 3 1/2 hours in this thing.
The very next hand, I am in the cut-off position and pick up AKo. It is folded around to me. All afternoon I had been reading Harrington vol 2 about inflection points and the importance of first in etc. and my brain thought, "perfect situation to get my money in." My thinking was that button was also smallish stack and the sb and bb were average (about 22K). The BB would have pot odds to call, but he must be thinking that I would likely need a big hand to push (after folding 15 hands in a row) this close to the money.
I push, and after 30 seconds of thinking, the BB calls with 7-3o. Flops two pair and I am out. 2 minutes prior to the money.
My question is, is this situation "too good to pass on". In a typical $20 multi I would push in a second, but here the money is fairly substantial.
Would anyone have folded at this point?
I hear stories of people folding AA in this type of situation, but to me that is passing up and opportunity to get back in the tournement.
Look forward to any responses.
Black99
Stars $500K on Sunday. With Blinds of 1K -2K and 400 players left, I lose a big pot when my J high flush is beat. My stack goes from average (20K) to desperate 8K.
I then post my antes and blinds for a round and a half and am down to 5400 after posting my SB.
At this point there are 329 players left and 324th gets $341.
I decide that unless I get AA, I am going to simply "hang on" until I get to the money as I had invested 3 1/2 hours in this thing.
The very next hand, I am in the cut-off position and pick up AKo. It is folded around to me. All afternoon I had been reading Harrington vol 2 about inflection points and the importance of first in etc. and my brain thought, "perfect situation to get my money in." My thinking was that button was also smallish stack and the sb and bb were average (about 22K). The BB would have pot odds to call, but he must be thinking that I would likely need a big hand to push (after folding 15 hands in a row) this close to the money.
I push, and after 30 seconds of thinking, the BB calls with 7-3o. Flops two pair and I am out. 2 minutes prior to the money.
My question is, is this situation "too good to pass on". In a typical $20 multi I would push in a second, but here the money is fairly substantial.
Would anyone have folded at this point?
I hear stories of people folding AA in this type of situation, but to me that is passing up and opportunity to get back in the tournement.
Look forward to any responses.
Black99
Comments
I say push. Â I'm assuming you invested some money into this so you could make some money, and the prize money you're hanging on for is only about 70% of your initial buy-in (assuming there was no rake on the 500). Â If you are getting back AT LEAST your buy-in (including any rake), you might have a decision (although I'd push anyway), but trying to "not lose too much" seems silly to me. Â If you can't afford to lose your buy-in, drop down in limits to where you're comfortable playing. I personally play low limits right now since I know I would have exactly this sort of tough decision in higher limits, and I don't trust myself to make the "right" call yet due to my bankroll. Â
In this case, good call, tough beat.
1. This is a world of difference between AA and AKo in this situation, even if making it into the money is your priority.
2. The decision with AKo here is not easy. You are 5 players away from the point in the tournament where over $110,000 of the prize pool gets paid out.
3. One thing that does matter is how fast players have recently been busting out, and what the state of the shortest stacks is. It matters if you are in dead last and the short stacks are in super-tight/time wasting mode, or if you are 20th from the bottom and the tournament bust-outs are occuring at the "usual" rate.
ScottyZ
Push.
At this point in the tourney, the players drop out fast enough that I was assured to make the money if I do not play any hands for the next lap of the button.
The $341 is not a big deal. It was more of a situation where going from "decent shape" with 400 left to small stack a few minutes later you want to make sure that you make the money when you are only 2 minutes from the money.
I agree with ScottyZ that AK is a lot different in this situation than a big pair.
My thinking at the time was "I am not concerned enough about getting to the money to fold when I am almost certainly a substantial favourite to take down the blinds or double up if I am called."
My motives were good, I think. "I am here to win."
My OP was meant to see whether folding was an option that many would choose in this spot.
At the time, it comes down to your read of the situation and other players. I thought that given what the BB knows about my stack size and the fact we are on the bubble, he would give me credit for having a big hand and fold even though he has the correct odds to call.
I would have folded 7-3 there as I would be certain I was up against AK at worst and more likely a big pair.
Thanks again for the responses.
Black 99
From the perspective of the big blind, there is no reason to put you on "AK at worst and more likely a big pair", since you are a desperately short stacked player.
ScottyZ
I would expect the BB to call with any 2 given any kind of odds (1 or 2 BB extra to call with antes? The odds are only 2-1 against him). I don't think we can assume he thinks you would only bet with a premium hand. He could also think you are playing like a donk and can get away with a steal or you have decided you cannot fold into the money so you need to double now. He could also be a donk and call anything anyway cause he feels he has to defend his blind.
$341 IS a big deal. Anyone who feels differently is welcome to transfer this to me  on stars. It lets you freeroll in the next one. It also represents a decent hourly wage. (Ignore the $215 investment as a sunk cost since you gotta compare this against taking home $0.) I'm thinking pushing gives you a 33% chance to make $0, maybe a 60% chance to make $341, maybe a 6% chance to make maybe $700 and a 0.25% chance to make $10k or more. Compare that to a 99% chance to make $341 by sitting on your hands. If my numbers are drastically off let me know.
To me, the question becomes "Which is higher EV - doubling up my miniscule stack (thereby minutely increasing my chances of a higher payout) or patiently waiting for money to fall into my lap?" I think you have my answer. (If any of my assumptions are incorrect, that could change my conclusions.)
That's a very shortsighted statement, yet I'm unsurprised you came up with it. I bet you get stolen to death when you are the shortstack near the bubble.
Why would you play in a $215 tournament in order to make the money for a 50% return on investment on a 5% shot? There are a wide variety of tournaments at bankroll levels that will allow you to make the correct +EV decision without regard to 200th place money. Aside from some very rare sitatuions, your sights should always be set on winning.
I'm not even gonna bother. I'll just give you your two thumbs up right now. I try to get better each and every day. I know I'm no where near the level of Scotty, Devin, Dave or Lou...
I'm sure he didn't start out with that intention but a successful player adapts to the situation he finds himself in. You are the smart one. Tell me what his percentages of winning which amounts are (unlike some, I do not know everything) and I'll be happy to help you with the math. Then we can have a reasonable discussion. Mere platitudes hand waving only convince the sheep who don't want to delve any deeper. I want to learn.
My point is folding could actually represent the best EV, cash wise, for him. Replace 'intention' with 'chance' and 'no' with 'extremely slim'. Given the situation he finds himself in, justify why he should push. I'm not completely disagreeing with you. I just need convincing. It's a question of how many spots he has to move up and how quickly the payout rise. Then you'd have to figure out what kind of stack would be needed, how many double ups, factor in the blinds and antes and come up with a percentage. I know it's not zero but how close to zero is it? Show me the numbers and we can discuss why this is a great position to take. Chip and a chair certainly has happened but for every 1 you can find, how many can you find who didn't move up?
I've edited this numerous times to avoid sounding confrontational. I'm sure I haven't done a proper job of it. This is a very interesting topic and I'd like to get a better idea of how to evaluate this numerically.
This, I think, is a key point.
Moving all-in with the AK in the cutoff in this spot unquestionably maximizes tournament chip +EV. The question is whether or not the decision to move all-in is maximizing monetary +EV.
So far, pkrfce9 has given (IMO) the most convincing argument that folding here might be the best decision in terms of monetary EV. As he mentioned, arguments that do not attempt to talk about monetary EV are going to be somewhat limited in effectiveness.1
I'm not sure how exactly he got the probability for a "big win" of 0.25%, but one nice way to think about it is giving the hero about a 10% chance of building his stack up to about average, and then realizing that the average stacked player has about a 2.5% chance of making the final table with ~340 players left.
One thing I took away from pkrfce9's calculation was how little (monetary) EV the large prizes are actually worth when your stack is in trouble. Certainly, even a small shot at large prizes is worth some monetary EV to you, but the question is whether or not the shot is worth more (in the sense of EV) than the high probability jump from $0 to $340.
Another key idea IMO is that the hero probably still has about a 10% chance to build his stack up to average after waiting for the next 5 players to bust out of the tournament.
ScottyZ
1Because winning this tournament has almost no external "bonuses" associated with it. In contrast, winning a WPT tournament (or even simply making the TV table) may have non-monetary value to some people.
Step 1) Take your sweet a$$ time and just before you time out... flat call the BB.
Step 2) If you get raised, again, take your sweet a$$ time and just before you time out I'd be looking at two options: to go all-in or not to go all-in (i.e. fold). Since you've been wasting the table's time, check to see it the bubble has been burst yet... if you're in the money you're all-in with AK... if not yet, lay it down and hope to survive until you're guaranteed a pay day.
I hope you guys get a good laugh out of this... but I am serious, this is what I would do!!!
/g2
Before poker, every game I had ever played had the same objective: to win. It was black and white. You win or you do not win.
Poker seems to make winning a gray area. A player does not have to "win" to be a winner. The question then is, what motivates a person to make the decisions they make at the poker table? Do they what to win money, or do they want to win. I like to think that players go into a tournament thinking they are going to try to win it. Of course, as the bubble approaches, things change. I think it is truly up to the player which route to take. If the player can look themselves inthe mirror the next day, then great. I believe that truly great players do not play for the goal of making the money, but will risk bubbling out in their quest to win. I think if you play to win, you are ALWAYS playing your best game. If you are playing to just make the money, you may do so a little more often, but I think if you are a good player it will be -EV in the long run. This is speculation on my part only.
This kind of thing might be worth a try if there were maybe 1 or 2 players left to go until the money, but I think trying to wait out 5 bust-outs over the course of (40 seconds + Time bank) is a little too tough.
BTW, if anyone is interested in the ethics of the "short-stack stall", I have contacted Stars support about this specifically, and they basically told me that using up your maximum allotted time is A-OK.
ScottyZ
There's no way it's the right play.
Thanks for the info from Stars support!
You didn't avert your eyes!!! I wish I had some of BBC's chump change.
By the way, the only way I would be in this tourney is if I won a seat through a satellite! And it's not like I'm going to pocket the $341 and buy somebody something nice... it's staying invested in poker.
/g2
Thats actually good to hear. I was playing one of those 180 person sng on Stars last night, found myself short with 20 people left, had A7s and was also about to hit the blinds. I started the time out thing, but felt like I was cheating and went all in with 30s left in my bank. Maybe next time i max out the bank and try and wait to get in the money.
I agree with you, and don't get me wrong, I see the point of your post, but I think I'm at a complete loss to try to come up with a solid mathematical argument (specifically the probability of moving higher in the payout structure).  My problem with "folding into the money" is that many times a player will overestimate their chances of getting into the money by taking this approach, and by the time they realize it, they've crippled themselves to the point of being in what Harrington calls "the dead zone" (1 BB or less).  Maybe that doesn't apply directly to this example, but suppose hero has a marginal situation earlier with an M of say 5 and decides to fold to make the money, he now cripples himself to the point of having an M of < 2 in the given example, and has to consider folding to eke out getting ITM.  I'm suggesting that earlier in the tourney by trying to maximize the chance of making the bottom payout (moving maybe from  80% to 90% chance or similar), that hero has potentially reduced his chance of a BIG payout from maybe something tiny like 2% to something miniscule like 0.5%.  Again, I'm just throwing these numbers around off the top of my head, but I think reducing your chances of winning BIG by 1/4 is worse than improving your chance to win small by like 10-20% or so. Â
I thought about the EXTREME example of being 1 from the money and KNOWING there were more desperate stacks than me, and that I knew 99% of the time I could fold into the money, and I think it becomes easier to wait out the bubble, and then push with a lesser hand once making the money. Â Again if someone feels more ambitious and wants to try to quantify this with numbers that would be awesome...
If you were playing a live event with 350 players with 35 making the money (1000 buy in) and $1500 for 35th... You have an M of 1.3 and are on the cut off with AK, do you auto-push? Or do you assure yourself of the $1500? I expect I know your answer, however, I think, based on all of the respones, I tend now to disagree. No matter the amount, going from 35% chance at nil, to a 99% chance at $$$ is the better play.
This was not a case of having to hold one for 10 minutes and get decimated to the point of not having enough to cover the blinds.
As things played out, I would have still had just under 5K when the blinds got to me, and I would have been in the money.
The biggest mistake that I made, and I am completely kicking myself over it now is failing to use up my time bank. I had a full 120 seconds and thinking back, that may have gotten me to the money in itself. I was literally 2 minutes from the money. I should have used it completely and if it was enough, then pushed (obviously) if not, then fold and make the assured money (which it was).
Finally, this is not a case of the $341 meaning too much. This is less than 5% of my current bankroll and is not a big hit. But it is still much better than 0, especially when it was assured money.
Black 99
*If* he had the average stack size, he might have an average chance to win. I think even that is generous since I'm guessing the percentage would skew towards the larger stacks and away from the smaller stacks. In any event, it would be far less than 1%. I guess you extended it to the final table since these are the guys that get the serious bucks.
My position is he has a lot of work cut out for him to get to an average stack size. I don't know what that amount is but let's assume with the blinds and antes and everyone stealing against him and around him, he'd have to double at least 4 times to get to average. Given the slippage between all-ins, that might amount to 25-30bb. Is the average higher or lower than this? At best, I'd give him 50-50 on each of his all-ins. I'm sure that is pretty generous actually. So with 4 all-ins, he is around 6% to make it to an *average* stack. Once he gets there, he has a 1-2.5% chance (again generous) to actually get to the serious money.
Scotty has further suggested that once you get into the money, then you can look at ways to maximize your chips. This is especially valid if you have to jump a bunch of positions to move up in the money. Since I'm in such a good mood, I checked the tourney payouts. The bottom 54 got 341. Next 54 got 409. Next 45 got 477. Next 45 got 546. And so on. Even 9th place only got 7.4k. Â You have to get to at least 81st to get over 1k. 8th and up get over 10k. Gooooooood luck.
So, in terms of possibilities of cashing, for pushing in:
33% of $0
x% of $341
y% of $341-10k (heavily weighted towards $341)
z% of $10k+
x+y+z = 67. x>y>z. Â z < 1. Â
And in terms of possibilities of cashing for folding this particular hand:
a% of $0
b% of $341
c% of $341-10k (heavily weighted towards $341)
d% of $10k+
a + b + c + d = 100. a < 1. Â b > c > d. d < 1. c < y. d < z.
Go nuts! Feel free to propose some values based on your MTT expertise. Sklansky has a nice description of when it is right to fold Aces. This is another example albeit a bit extrapolated.
Thanks, Scotty and others for advancing the discussion! It is nice to see we can have a discussion in a forum other than just "I'm right" "No you're not!". Reminds me of a haiku...
You are sacrificing your opportunity to win the tournament in order to win 1.5 times your buyin.
Whether it's $1 or $1000, it doesn't matter. Don't play in tournaments where winning 1.5x your buyin makes you happy.
That's not the goal of any tournament player. If it is, I can guarentee you are a longterm losing tournament player.
I was focused on winning the event until with my about average stack with 400 left I see the flop from the big blind with 10d Jd and the flop is 5d 6d Qd and I call a 10K all in by a player with Ad 8c.
At that point I am reduced to 9K and after my small Blind I have 8K. I see no cards resembling a hand that I can push with and I post my blinds again and have just over 5K left. At this point players are going out very quickly throught the 340s and 330s. I decide at that point that I am assured to make the money and unless I get a very favourable situation, I will not do anything stupid.
I then pick up the hand described in the OP.
I push all in as at the time I thought this was too good of a situation to give up.
I now question that thinking. The reason being that I gave up $340 that was certain for a very minimal increase in my chances of moving up the ladder significantly.
This is not a case of playing to make the money. This is a case of taking what the cards, and bad luck give you. Sometimes, I think, the technically best play is not the best in all the circumstances.
This has been an interesting discussion...
Fine!
Pushing:
position places payment % EV
1 1 $136,520.00 0.006% $7.51
2 1 $81,912.00 0.006% $4.96
3 1 $51,195.00 0.007% $3.41
4 1 $39,590.80 0.007% $2.90
5 1 $30,717.00 0.008% $2.47
6 1 $23,891.00 0.009% $2.12
7 1 $17,747.60 0.010% $1.73
8 1 $12,286.80 0.011% $1.32
9 1 $7,372.08 0.012% $0.87
10 9 $4,641.68 0.117% $5.42
19 9 $2,730.40 0.128% $3.51
28 9 $2,389.10 0.141% $3.37
37 9 $2,047.80 0.155% $3.18
46 9 $1,706.50 0.171% $2.92
55 9 $1,569.98 0.188% $2.95
64 18 $1,228.68 0.414% $5.08
82 18 $887.38 0.455% $4.04
100 36 $682.60 1.001% $6.83
136 45 $546.08 1.376% $7.51
181 45 $477.82 1.514% $7.23
226 45 $409.56 10.500% $43.00
271 54 $341.30 50.800% $173.38
worse 3000+ $-Â Â 33.000% $-Â Â
100.034% $295.70
Folding:
position places payment % EV
1 1 $136,520.00 0.003% $4.10
2 1 $81,912.00 0.003% $2.70
3 1 $51,195.00 0.004% $1.86
4 1 $39,590.80 0.004% $1.58
5 1 $30,717.00 0.004% $1.35
6 1 $23,891.00 0.005% $1.15
7 1 $17,747.60 0.005% $0.94
8 1 $12,286.80 0.006% $0.72
9 1 $7,372.08 0.006% $0.47
10 9 $4,641.68 0.064% $2.96
19 9 $2,730.40 0.070% $1.91
28 9 $2,389.10 0.077% $1.84
37 9 $2,047.80 0.085% $1.74
46 9 $1,706.50 0.093% $1.59
55 9 $1,569.98 0.103% $1.61
64 18 $1,228.68 0.226% $2.77
82 18 $887.38 0.248% $2.20
100 36 $682.60 0.546% $3.73
136 45 $546.08 0.751% $4.10
181 45 $477.82 0.826% $3.95
226 45 $409.56 5.350% $21.91
271 54 $341.30 90.000% $307.17
worse 3000+ $-Â Â 2.000% $-Â Â
100.478% $372.35
You can punch up the numbers any way you like. Prove it to everyone how pushing is a better option. Just make sure your numbers are reasonable. I'm guessing you won't do it.
This has been a good discussion. Very inspiring!