Need help with this hand....I have an over pair to board

st0neC0ldNutz

Here is my hand history...this hand killed me and is a major weakness in my game...how do I get away from a hand when I have an overpair to the board all the way to the turn?

Seat 1: robot420 (630), is sitting out
Seat 2: RERAISE5823 (3,010)
Seat 3: mazel (3,695)
Seat 4: suep (4,335)
Seat 5: SlyMike (5,010)
Seat 6: thenuts69 (940)
Seat 7: J85 (6,360)
Seat 8: derekty (1,260)
Seat 9: st0neC0ldNutz (4,630)
suep posts the small blind of 80
SlyMike posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to st0neC0ldNutz [9d 9s]
thenuts69 folds
J85 folds
derekty folds
st0neC0ldNutz raises to 450
robot420 folds
RERAISE5823 folds
mazel has 15 seconds left to act
mazel calls 450
suep calls 370
SlyMike folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 7h 8s]
suep checks
st0neC0ldNutz bets 850 (about 1,500 in pot when I make this bet...)
mazel has 15 seconds left to act
mazel folds
suep calls 850
*** TURN *** [5c 7h 8s] [2h]
suep checks
st0neC0ldNutz bets 2,000 (about 3,200 in pot when I make this bet...)
suep raises to 3,035, and is all in (uh oh....should have got away here?)
st0neC0ldNutz calls 1,035
suep shows [Jh Jd]
st0neC0ldNutz shows [9d 9s]
*** RIVER *** [5c 7h 8s 2h] [Ac]
suep shows a pair of Jacks
st0neC0ldNutz shows a pair of Nines
suep wins the pot (9,280) with a pair of Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9,280 | Rake 0
Board: [5c 7h 8s 2h Ac]
Seat 1: robot420 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: RERAISE5823 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: mazel (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: suep (small blind) showed [Jh Jd] and won (9,280) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: SlyMike (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: thenuts69 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: J85 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: derekty didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: st0neC0ldNutz showed [9d 9s] and lost with a pair of Nines

There was no re-raise pre.flop, so I didnt think he had AA or KK and prob not QQ - but I was scared of TT and JJ
sure enough, he had JJ.

How can I (A) minimize how much I lose here, (B) get away from this hand.

Also, being honest, how many chips do you think YOU would have realistically lost here, what is the least you can lose assuming that you are first in and open the pot in MP with
your 99 to about 3xBB ?

Thanks for all your comments.

ScottyZ

I'd go broke here.

Your opponent does nothing to suggest that you're beat at any point in the hand, and your play in the hand is definitely reasonable. I probably would have played it the same.

How can I (A) minimize how much I lose here, (B) get away from this hand.

These questions seem to be results-motivated. If your opponent instead showed A8, you'd simply go on tilt, consider posting a bad beat story on PokerForum.ca, and then bravely and selflessly reconsider doing so. If he showed 68, you'd be thrilled that he paid you off, rather than pondering how you could have put fewer chips at risk.

You got your money in with what appeared to be the best hand based on the betting. While not perfect play (i.e. playing as if you saw your opponent's hole cards), I still think it was correct play.

ScottyZ

BBC Z

uh oh....should have got away here?

The decision to get away from the hand had to occur before the 2k bet on the turn. Once he moved in for another k, it's pretty much an autocall.

I still think it was correct play.

What hands do you put the villian on? If it was a low pocket, he's got a set. If it's overcards, why did he call the flop? It COULD be A8 but then you only need to bet enough to give a 5 out draw bad odds.. The 2k bet committs us to showdown if he calls. Lets either move in here (which seems like a big overbet) or a smaller bet (maybe 1k) should be sufficient to get him to define his hand and leave us an exit strategy.

st0neC0ldNutz

Wow - I am in shock to read that I might have not made too bad of a play here.

Thanks for the comments Scotty.

However, I just thought about it some more, and I think another move might have been to check the turn - I know giving free cards is bad
but then I could have seen his play - if he checks, I can see free card or check raise him, if he bets, it would probably be for value so would not be too big...and I could just flat call
My turn bet was pretty big (2/3 pot) and when he re-raised me all in - I should have folded known I was beat - by trips or an over pair - and I still
would have been alive with 1,000+ in chips...

Thanks for your honesty saying you'd go broke...wonder how many others on this site go broke in this situation?

I think to become a better player, I have to recognise this situation and be able to lay that down - my instincts told me JJ - but I did not listen...

I know I am getting closer to being able to lay that down, and when I can - that will be sick.

st0neC0ldNutz

BBC Z wrote:

or a smaller bet (maybe 1k) should be sufficient to get him to define his hand and leave us an exit strategy.

I am more inclined to think this would have been a better move...when in a marginal situation, and the waters are murky, why create a big pot
when you dont need to?

wader

First of all this is really a tough hand and I aswell go broke. I actually MIGHT like the check on the turn, it all depends on your opponent. Is he cappable of making a move here? Is he tight, loose, passive, etc. The main question is "has he been calling raises preflop with weak holdings? If the answer is yes than I bet the turn.....he could have 66, 89, or even A8. If the answer is no than maybe you can check the turn and see what happens.....follow your gut if he bets, the smooth call on the flop would scare the hell out of me if he's a straight forward player. It seems to me that this guy might be a decent player because most players would pop you on the flop holding JJ when you bet out. The problem is the way he played his hand on the flop, since he didnt raise you it looks like he either has a set, 66, or the dreaded overpair which people always forget to think about. If you are not allready beat......hes not that far behind. Like I said "I go broke" but this is just another way of looking at it.

Wader

st0neC0ldNutz

wader wrote:

First of all this is really a tough hand and I aswell go broke. I actually MIGHT like the check on the turn, it all depends on your opponent. Is he cappable of making a move here? Is he tight, loose, passive, etc. The main question is "has he been calling raises preflop with weak holdings? If the answer is yes than I bet the turn.....he could have 66, 89, or even A8. If the answer is no than maybe you can check the turn and see what happens.....follow your gut if he bets, the smooth call on the flop would scare the hell out of me if he's a straight forward player. It seems to me that this guy might be a decent player because most players would pop you on the flop holding JJ when you bet out. The problem is the way he played his hand on the flop, since he didnt raise you it looks like he either has a set, 66, or the dreaded overpair which people always forget to think about. If you are not allready beat......hes not that far behind. Like I said "I go broke" but this is just another way of looking at it.

Wader

Yes. This player was playing fairly solid starting values, thus, I should have exercised more caution on the 4th street bet...the smooth call was hard to read by him on the flop - either he was trying to trap, or didn't believe I had anything...a possible check on the turn will now be added to my arsenal (based on my opponents past history) as well as a smaller bet on 4th street in an attempt to possibly still stay alive in the tourney - but not "go broke" next time I get into this bad situation. If we can all learn to lose a little less $ in these tough situations, we will be much further ahead than most chumps! LOL

Thanks for your comments Wader.

specialK

I think that it's possible to get away from this hand and not go broke. It would mostly depend on what your read on this player is, so after the flop you bet 850 into a 1500 pot and you get called, this should give you some info about your opponents hand. Since there is no flush draw this bet would give bad pot odds to the next best drawing hand (open ended straight draw) so then you have to think their hand is made. So what does he have?? Well you should right then think about A8, trips, or an overpair to your 99. So you are either way ahead(they have A8), or way way behind(they have trips or an overpair). This is where your read on the player comes in... would they have called the 450 preflop with A8 in bad position?? So your chance to get away was after the flop, i think once you bet the 2k it was an automatic call for the remaining 1k in your opponents stack.

Dave Scharf

I think, if you have a good handle on the player, you could fold on the turn.

You are offered c. 1000 into 7000. You have the best hand, you are drawing dead, or you have two outs. The way the betting has gone, I think that the latter two are the most likely. I think you could fold on the turn. Not saying I do (damn that monkey mind) but I think it should be possible. It's not an auto-call.

Shook

st0neC0ldNutz wrote:

However, I just thought about it some more, and I think another move might have been to check the turn - I know giving free cards is bad
but then I could have seen his play - if he checks, I can see free card or check raise him, if he bets, it would probably be for value so would not be too big...and I could just flat call
My turn bet was pretty big (2/3 pot) and when he re-raised me all in - I should have folded known I was beat - by trips or an over pair - and I still
would have been alive with 1,000+ in chips...

From what you described nothing short of an overcard hitting the board was going to slow you down.

If you checked the turn and he pushed would you have called?
If you check the turn and he checks behind you, you are no better off (Knowing where you stand).

I don't think you played it wrong because you were first to act. You didn't say how long it took the guy to move all in, but I don't see how he couldn't think you weren't on something huge. He may have thought you were trying to buy the pot with AQ or Ax. I have seen a lot of that type of play in these situations. But If I see that board and I have JJ I either push there and then, or get out the way.


Just my thoughts.