Glaringly, I have lost HUGE pots where someone has caught lucky, or has me beat ie AA vs KK. Yet tend to win much smaller pots when I am allowed to draw.
Isn't this usually true of hands like AA and KK? Win small pots or lose big ones? Ideally you'll win MANY more small pots to compensate for the few that you will lose, but don't be surprised of the size of the pots you pull/push with these hands.
- My stats are from hand histories that I take notes on.. I dint use tracker.
In this case, the statistics you have given are subject to observer bias.
You can't draw statistical conclusions from a subset of poker hands you have manually selected.
ScottyZ
Actually, I went through hand histories, 10K hands 8 hours taking notes and adding wins/losses.
I wanted to see why I was not seeing bigger gains, I was really surprised by this - particularly the loss on kings.
Sorry, I misunderstood. By "taking notes" I thought you meant that you were picking out a subset of interesting hands, and analysing those.
If you meant that you were simply manually going through a full sample of hands (which could be consider a "fair" sample) and tracking results, rather than using some kind of software, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with this aspect of the data gathering.
I don't recall where I read this, possibly on the forum but maybe not, but someone had a pokertracker database of several hundred thousand hands and the statistics he had for the number of each hand he made was consistant with the mathematical percentages were. Also, on Pokerstars site they explain how they gave their shuffling algorithm to two independant firms to determine if it was indeed random. They say that both companies said that it was good, but since I know nothing about algorithms and randomness and these two companies that checked it I can't really say anything about that. At least it looks like they trying.
There are tons of people out there with hand databases in the millions through play or through data mining. If there were any statistics that were out of whack (ie: AA and KK being dealt more often) then it would have shown up in these databases very clearly by now. Hand histories are a very transparent form of data, and if entered properly they will either confirm the validity of the dealing randomness or dispute it.
Not really sure what else there is to say about this. UFOs always seem to land or kidnap people from farms in extremely tiny towns and "online poker is rigged" believers always seem to lack any pokertracker hand history database as they either have none or use creativity to make their own form of database.
Call me a conformist, but for now I will still stick with the thousands of people with huge, verifiable databases that lack any dealt hand statistical anomolies.
Thank you, and better luck for you in the future to escape the multi quadrillion to 1 longshot bad beats your long term stats have somehow managed to put you in.
Red, I must have been pissed at UB one night you saw me, I never abandon UB.
I do play there with a different name though.
To answer the question in the post. Yes.
No limit ring games are very beatable.
They are the best way to make money without question.
Thank you, and better luck for you in the future to escape the multi quadrillion to 1 longshot bad beats your long term stats have somehow managed to put you in.
Thanks. I am up for a challenge. Quadrillion to 1 sounds big but I do not doubt it can be over come. It has already been very profitable.
My current challenge is to see if I can get the quote function to work as I like (and I seemed to after 4 tries )
Yikes 4 times to get the quote function to work properly. I believe that is a statistical anomaly of astronomical perportions. Let me run that through the poker tracker just to make sure that I am quoting the proper stats.  :fish:
Yikes 4 times to get the quote function to work properly. I believe that is a statistical anomaly of astronomical perportions. Let me run that through the poker tracker just to make sure that I am quoting the proper stats.  :fish:
Congrats on getting poker tracker!!!  Now you will be able to have actual accurate databases for a change. You are on the right path, good job.
Congrats on getting poker tracker!!!  Now you will be able to have actual accurate databases for a change. You are on the right path, good job.
Sorry no poker tracker here. I really do not need a software program to tell me what I already know. Thanks for the continued advertising. You should add a link and make a few bucks on the side. Enjoy!!
I really do not need a software program to tell me what I already know.
What is pokertracker going to tell you that you "already know"? How do you know what it's going to tell you without using it? This seems awfully short-sighted. As far as promoting it, I think you'l find that 95% of people that do use PT find a lot of value in it for a measly 50-55 USD (I can't remember the exact price). Sounds more like you don't want to find out "what you already know".
CanadaKev allowed me to post this in this thread. Yeah, it seems like you can buy a soda or two from NL!!
As far as the run up you heard about, it was at supremepoker.com .
...Sloth mentioned that my account received some 25 dollar bonus for my initial buyin. I reinstalled the software to find that I in fact was credited with 25 bucks.
I keep bankrolls of a couple thousand at 4 or 5 major online sites so this 25 bucks really didnt mean anything to me, so I thought I would see what I could do with it.
My rush has since stopped only because I choose to play other sites at the moment, although I plan on playing Supreme again once I catch up on cashing out.
My rush at supremepoker lasted for about 3 weeks and I played nothing but no limit cash games, starting close to the bottom levels. At the end of the 3 weeks my 25 bucks had grown to over 10,000.
The final week of the 3 at supreme was the key. Once my bankroll allowed me to play in some of the biggest NL games they offer i was able to put together most of my 10K. I matched my previous record week by making 6500 in a week playing no limit cash games.
Comments
Isn't this usually true of hands like AA and KK? Win small pots or lose big ones? Ideally you'll win MANY more small pots to compensate for the few that you will lose, but don't be surprised of the size of the pots you pull/push with these hands.
Sorry, I misunderstood. By "taking notes" I thought you meant that you were picking out a subset of interesting hands, and analysing those.
If you meant that you were simply manually going through a full sample of hands (which could be consider a "fair" sample) and tracking results, rather than using some kind of software, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with this aspect of the data gathering.
ScottyZ
other than people stating this or that site is 100% legit what is there to support their assumption?
are there any kind of independent audits of hands dealt? ..
Not really sure what else there is to say about this. UFOs always seem to land or kidnap people from farms in extremely tiny towns and "online poker is rigged" believers always seem to lack any pokertracker hand history database as they either have none or use creativity to make their own form of database.
Call me a conformist, but for now I will still stick with the thousands of people with huge, verifiable databases that lack any dealt hand statistical anomolies.
I do play there with a different name though.
To answer the question in the post. Yes.
No limit ring games are very beatable.
They are the best way to make money without question.
Thanks. I am up for a challenge. Quadrillion to 1 sounds big but I do not doubt it can be over come. It has already been very profitable.
The only way quadrillion to 1 odds can be overcome is if they never existed in the first place
The challenge therefore should be to create a more accurate and realistic database. Good luck with that as well.
My current challenge is to see if I can get the quote function to work as I like (and I seemed to after 4 tries
Easest way: Highlight the text you want to quote and then press the quote button. (It's the one that says "Insert Quote" when you mouseover it.)
Most dependable way: Manually type in
at the beginning of the text you want to quote, and
at the end of the text you want to quote.
ScottyZ
Yikes 4 times to get the quote function to work properly. I believe that is a statistical anomaly of astronomical perportions. Let me run that through the poker tracker just to make sure that I am quoting the proper stats.  :fish:
Congrats on getting poker tracker!!!  Now you will be able to have actual accurate databases for a change. You are on the right path, good job.
Sorry no poker tracker here. I really do not need a software program to tell me what I already know. Thanks for the continued advertising. You should add a link and make a few bucks on the side. Enjoy!!
What is pokertracker going to tell you that you "already know"? How do you know what it's going to tell you without using it? This seems awfully short-sighted. As far as promoting it, I think you'l find that 95% of people that do use PT find a lot of value in it for a measly 50-55 USD (I can't remember the exact price). Sounds more like you don't want to find out "what you already know".
Agreed!!
Monte best of luck.
You keep forgetting that no one forces you to read threads.
Jeez, just wanted to relay a little example of what is possible. Sorry if it did not precisely answer the OP's post.
You must be from 2+2, no?
BTW, I spellchecked this post, just so you don't find something to pick on there, too. Although I acknowledge that "Jeez" is not a word.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaha
Trust me, he's no 2+2er.