Hand from today's $1K freezeout
Hand for discussion. The precise situation I found myself in during today’s $1K event at Casino Regina.
You have 12,000 chips. The average is 12,000.
130 player remain out of a field of 180.
Blinds are 300 and 600 there is no ante yet.
It is folded to you in the cutoff. You have 5-5.
You have a 100% reliable tell on the button that he is going to fold. And, he is going to fold so you are the virtual button.
The big blind will defend a little more liberally than most. And, he is capable of an all-in steal move. He has 11,000 chips.
Question 1: What do you do?
Suppose that you raise to 1,500. The BB hums and haws. You believe, observing his body language, with a high degree of certainty that he has “nothing†defined as being a hands that is NOT a pair, A-K, A-Q, A-J or K-Q. He has something the he believes has “some merit†but it is not any of these hands.
You are now facing a call of 9500 (leaving you with 1,000 if you lose) into a pot of 12,800.
Question 2: Do you call?
You have 12,000 chips. The average is 12,000.
130 player remain out of a field of 180.
Blinds are 300 and 600 there is no ante yet.
It is folded to you in the cutoff. You have 5-5.
You have a 100% reliable tell on the button that he is going to fold. And, he is going to fold so you are the virtual button.
The big blind will defend a little more liberally than most. And, he is capable of an all-in steal move. He has 11,000 chips.
Question 1: What do you do?
Suppose that you raise to 1,500. The BB hums and haws. You believe, observing his body language, with a high degree of certainty that he has “nothing†defined as being a hands that is NOT a pair, A-K, A-Q, A-J or K-Q. He has something the he believes has “some merit†but it is not any of these hands.
You are now facing a call of 9500 (leaving you with 1,000 if you lose) into a pot of 12,800.
Question 2: Do you call?
Comments
55 u should always raise here. 1400 or 1500. If the BB shoves you have to fold I think unless you want to gamble for a huge stack.
Question 1....blinds are still pretty low, and you do have a hand, mediocre as it is. Raise to scare BB off if you can...thinking 3xBB.
Question 2...he comes over the top all in on your raise. Your read on him is that he has decent overcards only, but to your 2 outs to his 6, it's risky to call so early in the tourney. You still have a decent stack size, just below average, and lots of time to make another move at a better time.
But like I said, I'm NOT the person to be giving advice to someone as experienced as you Dave. But I would like to see how my answers compare to the other more experienced players.
Question 2, - Its a fold. If he has AK, AQ or AJ, you are a favorite of the coin flip. I don't like the coin flip for the rest of my chips. I am not desperate yet.
Question 2: Fold
2/ You are either a small favourite or a big dog. Your read tells you, you are a small favourite. You are given 1.35:1 pot odds and maybe you are a 55% favourite. So the odds are favourable for a call. However, you are not desperate and you are likely one of the better players at your table. You want to avoid variance here. I would be tempted to wait for a better spot.
2. Well if you have complete faith in your read go ahead and call, this is a nice +EV spot for you. I find it hard to belive you could rule out a middle pair like 66-99 given your read on his body language but I don't have your player reading skills yet.
This is a very good point, if he is a liberal defender. I showed this situation to some my colleagues (who have won main events) and they say raise 1800 maybe 1900. For what it worth.
ANd of course fold to reraise.
Since you have described the BB as a (slightly) more than usual defender, and more importantly someone who is capable of making big stealing moves, I'd be less likely to want to play big pot poker with him pre-flop.
Also, I assume that you have been playing highly aggressively so far. Limping in might just scare the bejezus out of them.
Take the money you were going to raise with pre-flop, and bet into your opponent(s) on the flop if they check to you when you don't spike a 5.
Question 2: Fold.
I actually read the OP before Dave edited it and told us what his hole cards were. I thought of (roughly) the range of hands I'd call with here, and 55 wasn't on the list. Neither was 99.
Your stack size matters a great deal here. If you are feeling more pressured from the blinds, e.g. if you had fewer chips, or if the blinds will be moving up quickly in the near future, this might be the kind of slim +EV play you're looking for. (Assuming your read that your opponent has no pair is correct a large percentage of the time)
ScottyZ
The blinds for the next two levels (another hour of play) go up reasonably. Then, antes kick in and the structure becomes ridiculous. It goes up WAY to fast for a $1K event.
I consider this hand interesting because it illustrates my slight shift in thinking about tournaments play. And, I have had a HUGE breakthrough in reading players. It's difficult to explain except to say that I was seeing the game and my opponents' cards with a clarity I have never experienced before.
As soon as I looked at this hand (5-5) I knew that there might be trouble. One often finds oneself in a situation in which "my hands is too good to fold, but I don't want any action." This is one of those times. I considered limping in. If I had gone that route it would have called for a fit-or-fold strategy. The BB was too unpredictable to blow off anymore chips getting fancy post-flop. Not to say that I would not have made a bet at the flop if checked to me... I might have, it would depend. I decided that raising was the better option since there was a reasonable chance that he would fold. He also might have simply called. He was prone to do either and CAPABLE of moving all in although I didn't think that was the most likely outcome at first.
Why not 1800 or 1900? I think with this player I would have to go to $3K to make much difference. I felt that $1500 (which is my standard 2 1/2 BB) was the right amount. I didn't want to stick in 25% of my stack to maximize my chance of winning the blinds.
When he considered his hand, it was a legitimate decision. He was humming and hawing about calling. He did a little thing with his finger which is what absolutely cemented my decision for me. Then, all of a sudden, he moved in. I know that one is never certain about being certiain but, I felt certain that he did not have an "automatic" hand (certainly a lot of use of the word "certain"). And, for this player I felt that any pair, A-K, A-Q, A-J, or K-Q were "automatics. That meant, to me, that I was very probably a slight favourite or a significant favourite (against a hand like A-2s or 5-6s).
I called his all in move. He held J-7s (not my suits) and he flopped a flush. I was gone two hands later.
This is my shift in thinking about tournament play. I think this is an automatic call (given how certain I am of his hand) and given how steep the structure will soon become. I am interested, harthgosh, if the steeper structure changes your thinking? I think I call even with a slow structure, mind you. It's a positive EV call and getting one's hands on a BIG stack translates into significant EV going forward in the tournament.
I like to gamble for chips personally with even 1% edge if the structure sucks. Terrible outcome though.. I wonder why he pushed the J7, he must off felt weakness in you. Maybe something to think about.
He is a smart enough player to know that (1) I will have a fairly large range in that spot and (2) I am capable of laying down.
I don't understand why he would risk his tourney on a all in bluff preflop to win such a small amount. To me this seems like an awful play, especially with such a dominated hand as J7.
It was, I think, a bad play on his part to be sure.
Wader
a) You were fairly sure the button would fold.
b) You know the BB is a fairly active defender.
The only downside I see is inviting the SB in.
Isn't this a good time to try a delayed steal bet on the flop as Scotty said (if checked to you) since the BB is expecting you to make some sort of raise there pf with a wide range since it's folded to you?
Great read, and great call given the odds the pot is laying you and your small edge. If it's any consolation, if you ever see this guy again in a tourney, I would think this hand would deter him from trying to make any big resteal plays on you again with marginal hands...
Thanks for letting us into your head. Do you think it's just hours put in at the table that has improved your reads so good? Can you break it down to anything that you've specifically tried to work on?
(2) Start paying A LOT of attention at the table. Focus on the players who are giving up more clues.
(3) Do not despair. You will not see much at the start. Eventually you will see more and more.
(4) Ask yourself one of two questions: (a) What is he thinking about, and (b) What is the cause of the massive hit of adrenaline that I just saw. These are, I think, the two most significant categories of tells: timing and adrenaline. I have a series of articles about adrenaline on my site (www.CanadianPoker.com) and I am working on some articles regarding "timing tells" that I will first publish at www.PokerPages.com so you will have to wait for those.
I remember trying, for a long time, trying to see tells. I could not. Now, I guess that I see one COMPLETELY reliable tell every second hand. They usually do not effect my play, but there is a TON of information sitting out there waiting for you to pick it up.
Q1. I like ScottyZ's approach. In your situation, you would really like to double up, and small/medium pairs are a perfect opportunity. Stealing the blinds only gets you future equity, as they don't amount to much at this point. The future equity, is that "piss off factor" where folks will give you their chips because you keep raising! Given, your style, you will already have built some equity. So, I like to limp here, especially with position. Lately, I do this more often in short handed games with small pairs. I want the blinds to pay me off when I hit, rather than trying to duke it out with aggression and my small fighters (I think you have this in your book -- send in the big guns). When I know I don't need to buy the button, it's an auto-limp. And, you can stand a raise from the blinds. IMO, it's just too good not to limp.
Q2. Based on your read, I think I call. I don't like to call, but heck doubling up is huge here. You need to get your chips in the middle at some point. This is a TSN turning point. I like to think skill brings me to the turning points where luck needs to shine a bit. So, I call. With no read, I fold.
Cheers
Lou
P.S. On my cab ride to airport, I was reading the list of Day 2 qualifiers for the WPT finals. When I saw your name, I was ticked that we didn't get a chance to hook up. Then I thought, what are the odds that there's another DS -- and I thought those odds were better than the odds of you not getting in touch with me. And, I was right! I love good reads.