How do you play this?

ScoobyD

Party limit game, loose table. Haven't sat overly long, so no obvious reads other than the fact lots of people are playing lots of hands.

***** Hand History for Game 2991905034 *****
$2/$4 Texas Hold'em - Sunday, November 06, 15:33:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 65738 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: stevo9 ( $138 )
Seat 4: Seat22 ( $115.50 )
Seat 7: snapple154 ( $46 )
Seat 9: sammigabby ( $139.50 )
Seat 10: hungerfb ( $205.70 )
Seat 3: ScoobD ( $197.75 )
Seat 2: xerxestheg ( $60 )
Seat 6: pkrBoi2 ( $72 )
Seat 8: DaimonX ( $148.50 )
Seat 5: railed06 ( $105 )
ScoobD posts small blind [$1].
Seat22 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ScoobD [ Qd Ad ]
railed06 folds.
pkrBoi2 calls [$2].
snapple154 folds.
DaimonX folds.
sammigabby folds.
hungerfb calls [$2].
stevo9 calls [$2].
xerxestheg calls [$2].
ScoobD raises [$3].
Seat22 calls [$2].
pkrBoi2 calls [$2].
hungerfb calls [$2].
stevo9 calls [$2].
xerxestheg calls [$2].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 9s, 6d ]
ScoobD checks.
Seat22 bets [$2].
pkrBoi2 folds.
hungerfb calls [$2].
stevo9 calls [$2].
xerxestheg calls [$2].
ScoobD calls [$2].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jd ]
ScoobD checks.
Seat22 bets [$4].
hungerfb calls [$4].
stevo9 calls [$4].
xerxestheg calls [$4].
ScoobD calls [$4].
Does anyone raise here for value with the nut flush draw, overs and a gutshot? I hate having to pay 3 bets for my draw here though, so I'm fairly happy to close the action.
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
What's the best way to maximize the number of bets here, lead or try a check-raise?

westside8

I would simply call on the turn, as you are still on a draw at this point. On the river, it looks like you will have at least a raiser, where as the rest are callers, I would check-raise here, as if you lead out, you might get smooth-called around.

SirWatts

I don't think I like raising the turn since it's a thin value raise anwyays when you conider there is a good chance a T will only split the pot for you and if the origiinal bettor 3-bets it really sucks for you. Certainly a Q will almost never win you the pot and a an A is extremely tainted. On the river I think I cheackraise since if the bettor keeps the lead you can CR the whole field. It seems unlikely it will be checked through unless these are the super passive types who freeze up on backdoor flushes. On the other hand there might be a lot of busted draws out there that aren't betting so maybe betting is safer. I guess I'd like to know what the chances are that the original bettor will lead again. I'm leaning towards just leading out after some thought.

BigChrisEl

I think I would go for the check raise.....there are 5 players in this hand besides you so I would figured there would be a good chance some one will bet out on the river, hopefully it will be Seat22 as he seems to be putting lots of bets. (But may he had trips and was trying to put people off the flush) With a little luck he'll bet, all the others call and then you can raise.

ScottyZ

I like the way you played it on all the streets shown.

Even with 9 clean (and 3 more very likely clean) outs on the turn, a value check-raise is extremely close, but EV-correct (drawing odds are ~3.8 to 1 against 4 opponents). However, if even one of your opponents drops his hand on the turn, the value play swings to EV-incorrect, and not close. The EV-loss is even greater if you do get 3-bet (and at least one opponent drops).

Note that, against that many opponents, I am discounting your overcard outs almost entirely. You might even classify them as "anti-outs", since connecting with an Ace on the river might end up losing you an extra bet on the river. And get the motion sickness bag ready if the river comes Queen.

In fact, even folding the overcards on the flop would be okay, mostly depending on how well (including how aggressively) the opponents play.

I would go ahead and lead out on the river. The danger of the river being checked around isn't quite worth the risk of possibly picking up a couple of extra bets with a check-raise.

Low-limit players love to call with hands they would never bet. Oddly, even though this is the number one error1 that poor low-limit players make, this behavior actually does demonstrate some correct intuition in terms of the notion of pot odds.

However, it's a pretty close decision on the river. With even one player behind me that I pegged as a "cannon", going for a check-raise would look appealing.

ScottyZ

1Well, it's a combination of two errors.

ScoobyD

Note that, against that many opponents, I am discounting your overcard outs almost entirely.

Agreed, I wasn't putting much stock in hitting the queen at all, and the ace is dicey at best.

As far as the turn value raise, I thought better to close the action since too many things had to go right for the raise to be +EV (no 3 bet, everyone calling), but seeing a bet and 3 calls in front of me had me highly tempted to pot-build there.

In fact, even folding the overcards on the flop would be okay, mostly depending on how well (including how aggressively) the opponents play.

Really? Even when I'm getting 16:1 and I can close the action for one bet with 2 overs (discounted outs) plus a backdoor nut flush draw? I was very happy that I got this dream flop scenario of having the bet from my left.

As for the river, my thinking was that the aggressor in the hand was on my left, and there could be some value in trying to trap the entire field with a check-raise. I rationalized that a backdoored flush shouldn't be THAT scary here, so someone is likely to bet. I think this gem though possibly summed up the flaw in my reasoning:

Low-limit players love to call with hands they would never bet.

So, here comes the part b) to this hand...

** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
ScoobD checks.
Seat22 checks.
hungerfb checks.
stevo9 checks.
xerxestheg bets [$4].
ScoobD ?

Semi-disaster (but not quite total). ALMOST got checked around, but guy on the end bets. My plan backfired, since now if I go ahead and raise, I more than likely shut out the rest of the field. So, go ahead and raise likely getting the call from the bettor (not many LL players are going to fold here for one bet), or flat-call with the nuts hoping for overcalls?

ScottyZ

Really [folding on the flop is okay]? Even when I'm getting 16:1 and I can close the action for one bet with 2 overs (discounted outs) plus a backdoor nut flush draw?

I certainly wouldn't say that calling on the flop is wrong. However, the co-ordinated 89 on board really sets up a lot of re-draws to your Queen overcard outs in a spot where you are typically automatically placing less value on the overcard Ace to begin with. Typical low-limit players engage the Kung-Fu-Grip-O-Death on their Ax hands pre-flop, and on any flops containing an x.1

You're getting juicy odds for sure. But your outs may even turn out to be anti-outs a good portion of the time rather than just partial ones.

In fact, your two backdoor draws seem to offer the most potential in this hand. Ouch.

** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
ScoobD checks.
Seat22 checks.
hungerfb checks.
stevo9 checks.
xerxestheg bets [$4].
ScoobD ?

I would raise the river, rather than going for the overcalls.

There are a couple of reasons I'd raise:

1. You might be able to sqeeze all 4 river bets out of xerxestheg if he actually has a flush (or even QT for the "nut" straight), a very reasonable holding for him.

2. The opponents would face the "big pot, big action" dilemna on the river. With the large pot, it will not be so easy for anyone to let go of hands like 2 pair, or even AJ, even for 2 bets cold (and after you have shown plenty of strength by check-raising the river).

3. To get information.

ScottyZ

1And often on flops containing 3 unrelated cards, just about the only reason to assign any kind of slim value to the Ace overcard at all.

SirWatts

I like raising. Someone just might call 2 cold and maybe the other guy actually has a flush and will let you cap.

ScoobyD

3. To get information.

How you manage to slip these gems into your 99% rational-sounding posts always amazes me... LMAO. I almost missed this the first time I read through...

ScoobyD

FWIW, I went ahead and raised, vowing to go the obvious route this time after my almost horrible missed check raise attempt. In hindsight, I think the table was too passive to try a check-raise there, whereas leading probably gets a couple loose calls.

** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
ScoobD checks.
Seat22 checks.
hungerfb checks.
stevo9 checks.
xerxestheg bets [$4].
ScoobD raises [$8].
Seat22 folds.
hungerfb folds.
stevo9 folds.
xerxestheg calls [$4].
ScoobD shows [ Qd, Ad ] a flush, ace high.
xerxestheg doesn't show [ Jc, 7s ] a pair of jacks.
ScoobD wins $67 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.

Chris

would folding on the flop be too weak of a play here? you have a raise and a call infront of you with two players left to act behind you. you hold two overs and a back door flush draw. a nice pot is forming but is it worth calling a bet that can possibly be raised behind you? i think i would have folded the flop...

BBC Z

would folding on the flop be too weak of a play here?

Yes, the pot is a MONSTER.. You need little more than a backdoor flush draw to call profitably on the flop.

you have a raise and a call infront of you with two players left to act behind you.

The first betting action on a street is called a 'bet', not a 'raise'.

The size of the pot dictates your play in Limit Holdem.

ScoobyD

you have a raise and a call infront of you with two players left to act behind you.

Actually I'm closing the action on the flop, so I think this makes a call even clearer here.

Hork42

Call the flop.

Raise the turn.   Your pot equity against typical hands here is fairly strong.  While you're not in the lead, the pot is 6-way, so you only have to have an share of 16% to make this profitable.  Your share is better than that.  (i suck at math, so if I'm wrong, don't eat me.)
Also, waking up with a c/r may drive some of your opponents with a pair out, making your overcard outs more valuable.


Typical hands here:

Holdem Hi: 38 enumerated boards containing 9s 8c Jd 6d
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ad Qd   15  39.47    23  60.53    0  0.00  0.395
9c Ah    3   7.89    35  92.11    0  0.00  0.079
8s 7c    1   2.63    36  94.74    1  2.63  0.039
7s Jc   17  44.74    20  52.63    1  2.63  0.461
5s 5c    1   2.63    37  97.37    0  0.00  0.026

Call the river. Too many loose players acting behind you to not go for the overcalls.  Maybe someone raises and you trap them all for an extra bet.

ScottyZ

The example given is a great illustration of how much your hand is improved given that hitting the Q overcard gives you the winning hand.

5s 5c

You think that low-limit players would still be clinging onto a 55 at this point, holding out for one last card in an act of complete desperation, without even realizing how thin they are probably drawing?

ScottyZ

Hork42

ScottyZ wrote:

5s 5c

You think that low-limit players would still be clinging onto a 55 at this point, holding out for one last card in an act of complete desperation, without even realizing how thin they are probably drawing?

Loose Party 2/4 table? Hell yeah!

ScoobyD

I agree with Hork that any ridiculous small pair hand is POSSIBLE on party low limits. However, I think the example given is likely a "Best-case scenario" of the range of hands. In short I think it too likely that either a T is out there (T9?) to kill my queen, or my ace is counterfeited there, if not both... I would think that on average, at least 3 of these outs would be no good.

ScottyZ

Hork42 wrote:

ScottyZ wrote:

5s 5c

You think that low-limit players would still be clinging onto a 55 at this point, holding out for one last card in an act of complete desperation, without even realizing how thin they are probably drawing?

Loose Party 2/4 table? Hell yeah!

Okay, just checking.



ScottyZ

Hork42

ScottyZ wrote:

Hork42 wrote:

ScottyZ wrote:

5s 5c

You think that low-limit players would still be clinging onto a 55 at this point, holding out for one last card in an act of complete desperation, without even realizing how thin they are probably drawing?

Loose Party 2/4 table?  Hell yeah!

Okay, just checking.



ScottyZ

Heck, if you want proof, I've got lots of hands where I've done that.... er... seen that.. happen.... to me...