Fire the last barrel?

SirWatts

This is from a double shootout satellite to the Bahamas. Play has been mostly conservative so far and I've ben getting a little aggressive preflop to try to take advantage a bit, but playing typically solid postflop (ie he would have reason to think I've gone insane). It is safe to assume my opponent in this hand is a pretty strong player I believe. On the river his hand seems pretty well-defined as an ace with a middle kicker. Do I fire again? I haven't seenhim make any big laydowns yet.

PokerStars Game #2950758268: Tournament #14327496, Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level IV (50/100) - 2005/11/01 - 22:28:25 (ET)
Table '14327496 4' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Buckohfive (3295 in chips)
Seat 2: BULL123 (955 in chips)
Seat 3: Dougy70 (1840 in chips)
Seat 5: SirWatts (2115 in chips)
Seat 6: Youssepe (3795 in chips)
Youssepe: posts small blind 50
Buckohfive: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Qs 9c]
BULL123: folds
Dougy70: folds
SirWatts: raises 200 to 300
Youssepe: folds
Buckohfive: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [3c 7c 2s]
Buckohfive: checks
SirWatts: checks
*** TURN *** [3c 7c 2s] [Ah]
Buckohfive: checks
SirWatts: bets 400
Buckohfive: calls 400
*** RIVER *** [3c 7c 2s Ah] [5h]
Buckohfive: checks
SirWatts: ?

stpboy

Count your losses...

stp

magithighs

I think the time to fire is on the flop and represent a wired pair concerned about a flush draw and a str8 draw.  Five hundred is a nice round number.  However, with the stack in the BB he isn't going to fold with a flush draw or str8 draw, but I think he would fold a weak ace like A9 or A4 if he doesn't have a flush draw.

Then you can check the turn and still represent a pocket pair worried about an ace hitting.  You've got position, and checking the turn is your prerogative.

If he checks the river, then I think you might want to fire another barrel.  However, I'd be inclined to check, as you would need to bet something like 1k to have any hope of your opponent folding a medium pocket pair.  And, I don't  think he will lay down a weak ace.

Personally, I wouldn't play these flyers.  They are way more trouble than they're worth at this point in the tournament.  I'd save it for the heads up battle.

Cheers
Magi

SirWatts

I guess i should have just the bet flop but i've been trying to learn not to cont bet every single time because it seems likes people take a lot of shots at me when I'm too predictable, especially on flops like these. Maybe even thinking of betting the river means i need to get some sleep but I thought there was some logic to it. Someone who usually continuation bets every flop and then checks and then springs to life when he should know you have a strong hand would scare me anyways. Dave has been known to do crazy things from time to time maybe he'll have some intersting ways to tell me i'm losing it.

BBC Z

You put him on a hand that will call you and you ask if you should bet the river on a bluff?

Uhh

SirWatts

I was wondering what the chances are he makes this fold assuming he's a "good" player. I could see myself laying it down if I was him. Perhaps I'm the only weak-tight donk that would.

BBC Z

I'd call this a risk/reward scenario..

You took your shot at stealing it on the turn and he called you. He's not insane, so he's got something..

You didn't play it like you have AK because of the lack of flop continuation bet. If he's a good player, he may smell a rat.. Your only bluff would be a river all-in for 1500 chips into a 900 pot.. 1.6 to 1 odds or so..

Showing down for free will leave you with 1500 chips + the % of time he's on a busted flush draw.. Slightly in the M red zone but enough chips that opponents won't want to tangle with your all-ins without crippling them..

Zithal

This is a hard spot to be in. You've classifed the BB as a strong player, so your button raise doesn't entirely define your hand for him (cause it could just be a standard button steal) which means there's a lot of hands that you would play in that position that would miss both the flop and the turn.

The BB has you outchipped and when it gets to the river your stacks look like...

You: 1,415
BB: 2,595

Pot: 1,400

You almost have to move all-in at this point to put any pressure on the BB. At this point it's likely he has a made hand or a busted draw, so we're in the spot where a bet will only get called by hands that beat us. (And, if he's on a busted draw, there's a ok chance that you may be ahead) If has a weak Ace (which could also be true), let's look at the hand from his end...

I'm in the BB with Ax, get raised by the button for 3xBB. I choose to defend my blind. I also note that I have the button covered. Flop comes check-check, turn comes an Ace.

If I'm defending my blind with Ax, the turn was about the best card I could have been hoping for. An all-in river bet called will either knock we down to 1,100 or launch me to 5,400 and a serious shot at first place. If I'm not willing to play the Board when an Ace comes with Ace-junk, I shouldn't be defending my blind with it and should have dropped it pre-flop. I have to believe I'm ahead at this point and would most likely call.

From your end, for one more persepective. Which Ax hands are you hoping will fold to an all-in bet? For arguements sake, let's say AT+ will call, A9- would fold.

A2, A3, A5, A7 have two pair on the river. Clear call.
A4 has second nut straight. Clear call.
A6, A8, A9 are the only hands that you have to hope he has. (though A8, A9 are tough, but definately not clear folds for the BB)

Too many hands beat you here. A check (and loss) leaves you with 14 BB's which is still enough to exert pressure, though you're going to have to make a move soon as you've just entered the red zone.

SirWatts

Well just so everyone knows I checked it down and lost to A8. I briefly considered betting but decided against it since I didn't think he's folding an ace much and it's possible he's hoping to trap me with a 2 pair type of hand or something though I feel like he's leadnig into me in the turn hoping I hit my ace if that was the case, and that a big ace wouyld have popped me preflop. Anyways I thought maybe there was something to the idea after so I figured I'd give er a post and see if anyone else thought so. I will continue playing unimaginative winning poker .

BBC Z

I will continue playing unimaginative winning poker

You played unimaginative losing poker on the flop. The Check-Bet Flop-Turn line in position reeks of bluff unless you've previously established you are capable of seriously slowplaying big hands and then showed it down to the table *AND* they were paying attention.

SirWatts

Like Scooty said betting is the typical unimaginative thing to do (stop deleting your good posts!). It's on the list of things to continue/get back to doing don't worry sir. I've just got to learn not to do it on every flop. Why I thought this was not a good flop for it eludes me.

magithighs

SirWatts wrote:

Like Scooty said betting is the typical unimaginative thing to do (stop deleting your good posts!).  It's on the list of things to continue/get back to doing don't worry sir.  I've just got to learn not to do it on every flop.  Why I thought this was not a good flop for it eludes me.

Play fewer hands and your continuation bet will not be called as much.  Put yourself in the other player's shoes -- you see someone who's been pretty much quiet -- pre-flop raise, flop bet -- if you're observant you won't call/raise unless you have something and that will only be 30% of the flops.  Now, if you see someone in many hands, the situation is reversed.  You will call/bet assuming the loose guy has missed the flop, counting on the loose guy missing the flop 60% of the time. 

Also, the time to cut back on the continuation bet is when you're out of position against a field of players say 3-4 players.  Against 1 or 2 players you need to do it pretty much every time, as you're more likely to be successful.

I know as the table shortens and the blinds go up, you need to play more hands.  I would think Q9 won't be in there, unless you're short and pushing the whole stack.

Cheers
Magi

SirWatts

Actually this is a pretty standard raise for me unless I've been stealing too much and expect to get played back, which no one had yet shown they wanted to. A decent hand, the initiative, fold equity, and position make this fine, I know this is absolutely standard in a limit ring game I can't see why not in a NL tournament situation when people defend less.

magithighs

SirWatts wrote:

Actually this is a pretty standard raise for me unless I've been stealing too much and expect to get played back, which no one had yet shown they wanted to.  A decent hand, the initiative, fold equity, and position make this fine, I know this is absolutely standard in a limit ring game I can't see why not in a NL tournament situation when people defend less.

1) All the hands which call you have you either dominated or are  well ahead
2) If you get played back at pre-flop you have to fold -- at least that's what I would recommend.
3) If you play these hands your continuation bet will be pretty much meaningless, so you get called or played back at with your continuation bet, as you're finding out.  So, you have to make a hand, and the hands you make are great going broke hands
4) It's hard to be creative when you're playing allot of hands -- Harrington's book talks about a cannon and the hands they would play -- Q9o is not in there.  So if you want that cannon image, you may want  to peak at the types of hands they would play.
5) You have a decent stack and don't need to steal
6) I won't play this hand in a limit ring game even if it's heads up.  Horrible hand. 
7) If you want a decent hand, with fold equity then low suited connectors are much better because no one will put you on the hand, you will likely not be dominated and it will be hard for your opponent to get away from their hand when you hit yours (ie. they hit an ace and you hit the str8)

Cheers
Magi

SirWatts

OK let me give a rebuttal a try. First of all let me say that I have no problem with folding this preflop, but I think raising is good too. Certainly your decision should not be based on your hand but based on all the other factors such as table image and how well the blinds play. You definiely want to be changing gears.

magithighs wrote:

1) All the hands which call you have you either dominated or are well ahead
2) If you get played back at pre-flop you have to fold -- at least that's what I would recommend.
3) If you play these hands your continuation bet will be pretty much meaningless, so you get called or played back at with your continuation bet, as you're finding out. So, you have to make a hand, and the hands you make are great going broke hands
4) It's hard to be creative when you're playing allot of hands -- Harrington's book talks about a cannon and the hands they would play -- Q9o is not in there. So if you want that cannon image, you may want to peak at the types of hands they would play.
5) You have a decent stack and don't need to steal
6) I won't play this hand in a limit ring game even if it's heads up. Horrible hand.
7) If you want a decent hand, with fold equity then low suited connectors are much better because no one will put you on the hand, you will likely not be dominated and it will be hard for your opponent to get away from their hand when you hit yours (ie. they hit an ace and you hit the str8)

Cheers
Magi

1. If they only defend with hands that dominate me I'm going to steal uncontested often enough for this to be profitable. I really don't think I'm dominated as often as you think here, though certainly if i hit the flop and get played with I need to be careful.
2. Of course. My read at this point was they weren't going to pop me without a legitimate hand, so this won't happen very often either.
3. This is true . Again, I didn't think these guys were the types to pull any big moves on me. Even if you know exactly what I'm doing it's not necessarily easy to deal with either. If they're going to wait until they flop something and "trap" me I will raise their blind and cont bet all night and just give up once they show any interest. If they grow wise to this and start trying to bluff me or calling with A-high then things get interesting. I can either switch gears which is my usual plan and get paid off when I have something, or up the ante and continue trying to outplay them on later streets. I don't think I'm at the level where this is a great plan yet, but there's only one way to learn.
4. Sure I'd prefer a suited connector or something like that but I've got a little high card value, maybe some straight draws, it's not a terrible hand. I'm good at folding if things go wrong remember I still have some weak-tight in me.
5. True, I also have enough chips that losing some chips on a steal won't cripple me and stealing a few more is always nice. With everyone playing tight it seems like the perfect chance to take a few pots and then switch gears and use the loose image I've acquired to my advantage.
6. I raise this from the button or the SB first in against most blinds. Maybe even the CO if blinds are super tight. I suck at limit it seems but this is recommended by people a lot better than me.
7. Yup, unfortunately I got dealt Q9 not 76s, I'm not going to pick up an ideal hand on the button very often.

Folding here is not a mistake, but neither is rasing under the right circumstances.

ScoobyD

While I'm not overly thrilled with Q9o in general,  on the button, at this stage of a tourney, I would be inclined to steal with it if I thought the blinds were tight.  As SirWatts said, he's not playing it if he's been caught stealing recently, stealing too much, players have a tendency to aggressively defend their blinds etc...  A flop bet more than likely takes the pot here vs a typical player.  The only sketchy thing about this steal is that it has to go through both the bigger stacks of the table, unfortunately a shitty relative position given the stack sizes of the table.

As far as Magi's comments:

1) I think the call by the BB demonstrates that this isn't necessarily true.  The A high is ahead, but not by much, and hero has position and has taken the lead in the betting...
2) I agree for the most part.
3) I think SirWatts clarified that he was aware of when to try this steal and when not based on his table image, so I don't think this is much of an issue.
4) I agree.  Play too loose, and bluffing becomes a blunted weapon at best.
5) I agree hero doesn't NEED to steal, but when is stealing ever about need?  I WANT chips, hence I steal (particularly if I think it's got a reasonable chance of success).  He's risking 300 to win 150. Losing 300 isn't
the end of the world. Against tight blinds, I'd expect this to succeed often enough preflop to be worth it. Not to mention hero will often be able to take the pot down with a continuation bet, and may catch the occaisional flop as well. When you get short stacked, stealing doesn't even become an option without putting your entire stack at risk, so I think using this weapon while it's still in Hero's arsenal is justified.
6) In general I tend to agree, but heads up it's slightly above average, and I don't hate the raise from the button vs. tight blinds.  I'd hate to play this OOP from the small vs. the BB though.
7) I agree as far as deception purposes, but I still think headsup, high card strength (or pseudo-high card in this case)  isn't that bad.

Maybe just a difference in playing styles, but I find I generally go from super-tight, to steal-crazy (when the blinds get decent enough) which inevitably sets up the situation where I'm "stealing" with a monster and FINALLY someone pushes back when I've got the goods.  Then I've just got  to hold on and hope the A6s doesn't catch vs. my KK

SirWatts

One more question for Magi that I just thought of: What hands do you raise in limit? You raised like every 3rd hand at a shorthanded table when I played with you if Q9o isn't on the list what is? In a limit game Q9 is MUCH stronger than 76s in a heads up pot.

magithighs

SirWatts wrote:

One more question for Magi that I just thought of:  What hands do you raise in limit?  You raised like every 3rd hand at a shorthanded table when I played with you if Q9o isn't on the list what is?  In a limit game Q9 is MUCH stronger than 76s in a heads up pot.

If I'm first in, I will raise almost every time with the hands I play in a short-handed limit game.  For simplicity, say that I play hands in Group 1 through Group 6 and some in group 7, removing all two gappers that don't contain an ace or king.  Q9o isn't one of the hands I play (around 15% of hands), and neither is QTo.  Limit is a different beast, as the investment of a raise is so small in relation to you're stack, and I can call a re-raise with all the hands I play. So, I'm playing more hands in limit and raising more often.

The trouble with no-limit that the investment of a proper raise is high, especially when the blinds are up.  I would steal with almost any two cards against mid-stack players who can't call unless they have a hand.  The trouble with stealing against the chip leader is they can pick off your steal with a wide range of hands.

What I noticed about your post is that you're stealing in bad situation with a bad hand (well IMO) against a chip leader.  In your post you complained that your continuation bets weren't working.  I made a quick assessment that based on the steal you made, how your creativity was going unrewarded and the fact that your continuation bets not working that you are playing too many hands.  Just my 2 cents.

Cheers
Magi

BBC Z

Why do you guys continue to talk about Q9o as if hero is raising for value? It's a steal people. The cards don't matter.

SirWatts

It's a good idea to have a hand that can actually flop something decent even when you're stealing since it adds some value when you get called and take a flop. I think my comment about my cont bets not getting any respect was more of a general comment not specifically dealing with the hand in question. Certainly there are times when I probably have been raising way too much, probably even against players who are more likely to outplay me then the other way around, but on the other hand if you don't attack them because they're good players then they've already won. As with most things in poker the key is to find a good balance.