Fold My Set?
MTT
T10000 to start
Assume villain to be a very good player
Hero T12700 (CO)
Villain T8300 (BB)
50/100 Blinds
Hero dealt 4h4s
Two limpers, hero limps, villain raises to 400, limpers fold, hero calls.
Flop 3h,4c,5h
Villain bets 800, hero raises to 2000, villain calls
Turn Ad
Villain is allin, hero????
My thinking was that he had AK,AQ, or 88-JJ
In retrospect, I'm not so sure my play on the flop was very good.
Would he go all in with TP or 2 pair?
Any chance he played AA this way?
Comments appreciated.
T10000 to start
Assume villain to be a very good player
Hero T12700 (CO)
Villain T8300 (BB)
50/100 Blinds
Hero dealt 4h4s
Two limpers, hero limps, villain raises to 400, limpers fold, hero calls.
Flop 3h,4c,5h
Villain bets 800, hero raises to 2000, villain calls
Turn Ad
Villain is allin, hero????
My thinking was that he had AK,AQ, or 88-JJ
In retrospect, I'm not so sure my play on the flop was very good.
Would he go all in with TP or 2 pair?
Any chance he played AA this way?
Comments appreciated.
Comments
stp
Then again, maybe that's why my BR is quite where I would like it to be.
Your opponent needs either a deuce, or one of two exact hands to beat you.
There are plenty of hands that your opponent would make an all-in semi-bluff with (or actually believe his hand is now good), such as Ah Xh. Also, the chances that he has exactly 55 are about the same as the chances of him having exactly 33, so you're winning half the time that your opponent has this type of holding anyway.
Sure there is. The pre-flop and flop play is consistent with AA. Just calling your raise on the flop, and moving all-in on the turn are both plays that are on the conservative side, but reasonable.
ScottyZ
My answer is..... well it depends
If he is Tight- AA - TT
If he is Loose - A2s, 67s, 66-99
But lets look from the other side of the table
There are 3 (maybe 4 if the sb completed) people in the pot; so the pot has 400
- And he decides to pop it 3xBB -
Lets look at some general assumptions and scenarios;
a)- typically a very good player would raise more with AK, AQ maybe even AJ as you want to take the pot here, same with small pairs 33-88
b)- typically a VGP will raise here with just about ANY marginal hand as you have bad position and cant see a flop with 3-4 others, it is very hard to outplay 3 people on any flop( Scotty will disagree as you no longer get pot odds for drawing hands but I think the money is in the pot and by raising you may even be able to take it down here still a +EV play)
c)- typically the 300 raise actually encourages some action, but narrows the feild. It could suggest AA-TT
- so lets eliminate scenario A as this would be a bad play on his part and we are giving him credit for being a good player
So the Button limped in with 2 people in the pot, I bump the action and get one caller who originally limped on the button...this screams that I am way ahead (unless I have been out of line for a few hands and the button would trap me with a monster - but I would have known that with a reraise preflop)
Flop 345 two hearts
Scenario B - If he was playing 67s, he just flopped a monster. It should be concealed by his raise so no need to be superfancy, the hearts are scary but he has the vulnerable nuts right now. Probably a good place to bet as you will get called by the flush draw and the unlikely holding of A5, or more remote A2.
He bets 800 (3/4 pot) and gets reraised to 2000 - whoop! there it is, whoop! there it is.....
The smart play here is a call, no reason to get all the chips in the middle. It is a 1200 call into a 3800 pot, the odds are 3.5-1 that another heart falls which is the only thing that is scary. If he goes all in here as protection he looses the expected $$ on all draws that he beats...compared to the 3.5-1 that a heart falls on the turn. Make the play on the turn where the odds are worse for anything to draw that beats him.
The only semi bluff that is scary is the flush draw, AQ, AK, Aj (highly unlikely hands for a limp in late position but still there) may also reraise here and why let that stop betting? Or a set... fire away sir fire away sir
Scenario C - if he is holding AA-QQ this looks like a great flop. The two hearts are scary, but he thinks he is still way ahead in the hand.
He bets 800 (3/4 pot) and gets reraised to 2000 - danger will robinson danger bloop bloop bloop -
So it is a 1200 call into a 3800 pot. Just over 3-1
- what does he give you credit for? Are you likely to play 67, A5, A2? Would you raise with two hearts?
- very likely is you have a made hand a set, or straight(with no hearts the reraise isnt a value raise it seems like a go away raise with a made hand) but no flush draw. By calling Im looking for a heart to fall so I can represent the flush and I have the Ah so I could back door flush you.
Turn Ad
Scenario B 67s ding ding ding........ that can be a money card! It could give you top pair if you were on Ah high flush draw, (or with very unleikely AK, AQ) But it makes the flush draw a 4-1 dog now.
Great time to protect your hand and bet out making it look like the ace helped you. There is 5000K in the pot and you have to take the pot odds away from the draws 5000 bet does that. It makes the call 2-1 and the plausable draws are all 4-1 or worse
Scenario C - AA-QQ AA - Ding ding ding........ top set. The board is scary with a flush draw, so going all in should scare out the draws, Given the reriase on the turn, I have just outdrawn any other set and the str doesnt seem plausaible. Why reraise when your getting bet into with the nuts? If you do have a flush draw going all in will make it 2-1 for a 4-1 draw.
There are many other combinations of A2, AQ, AJ 33-22 but above are the two most likely scenarios.
Again I am giving alot of credit to the player your describing as good.
If you were against a very aggressive player with some maniacal tendencies (read me
With no knowledge here I tend to think of a fold, the all in move is a good play and you may have to lay down the best hand. The only way to negate this is
a) knowing that the villain would go all in on a semibluff /or reinforce a laydown if he would go all in with the nutz
b) reraising more on the flop, a 2200 reraise controls the odds in your favor and a call with any draw is a mistake by him and probably pushes out an overpair
So let me guess, you called and he showed you AA?
What hands are ahead here? AA, 55 and any 2. Â Against AA or 55, you have 4 outs to the straight for a split. And 1 out for quads to win. Against any 2, you have at least 2 shots at a 2 for a split and 10 outs for the full house to win. Not great odds but also not many hands. It is unlikely he raised pre-flop with a 2 unless his name was Stu or Tyson. And Stu is dead.
What hands are you ahead of? Specifically, ones that he would play for a raise pre-flop and call a reraise post-flop? A whole bunch - any mid to high pair. Of these, 66 is the only PP that has more than 2 outs to beat you. He might have 2 hearts, including Axh. This would give him 8 outs to beat you. This looks favourable.
He didn't put much more than a pot-sized bet on the turn with his all-in. So you are getting almost 2-1 for your money. I would be inclined to call given the number of hands that beat you vs the number of hands you beat. You may be beat or get outdrawn, in which case you are down to 4k in chips. But you have a very good chance to win this and be up to around 20k.
Would he go all-in with top pair or 2pr? Depends on the player and depends what he thinks you have and how he thinks you play. Would he go all-in with a better hand? Depends how many outs he thinks you have and if he thinks you'll call when you are drawing slim.
What do you think you did wrong on the flop? I wouldn't put him on an hand that is ahead of you at that point so if he calls the raise, he's getting poor odds. You could have raised a bit more but then you run the risk of chasing him out and I'm not sure you want that if you feel you are way ahead.
Wow... Im so flattered. But c'mon Stu Unger? That's so untrue...he was soooooooooooooooo much better at Rummy then me
I really missed something, you will have 4k left if you call and the blinds are 50/100... that lends some credence to calling.
Look at the range of hands here.... I think we can put him on anything and in all seriousness if it was you Greg, I would have you on AA. You wouldnt raise preflop with 67s, and wouldnt want to see the turn with a big A and a reraise. You wouldnt put your money in on a flush draw, nor would you go all in on the ace falling if you had QQ, KK. (althought I would lose everything if you had 22 which is a small likely hood but possible)
However, If the guy is a donkey that has pushed with a draw/top pair before I would call. Other then that I have such a HUGE stack compared to the blinds you may be able to find clearer situations to put your money in. Here there is no definition.
There are 18BB in the middle right now. I would be VERY happy in trying to take down this hand now. Why get too fancy and then have to make a VERY hard decision with another Big stack right now.
Without the A your way ahead, but what if a heart fell? or a 2? Thats 14 outs you dont want to see on the turn that could take this pot away from you. If you get called with a 3000 (2200 raise) then you get out of the hand on the turn unless you complete your hand with a 4 or a board pair.
I'm not so sure this is an easy call (as some have stated) and I think I agree that pushing on the flop might have been the best move.
As it turns out, I call, he has a pair of 8's, the river is another ace, and I take it down. I guess he wasn't as good a player as I thought. I wonder if he calls an allin flop bet or if my raise to only 2000 turned out to be the most profitable line. I guess he put me on an overpair to the flop and figured the ace was enough of a scare card to make me fold in this spot.
I guess I should mention that this is a hand I played yesterday in the RGP year long e-mail tournament. I assumed that anyone that would enter such a tournament wouldn't be a complete donkey, and that's why I said to assume the villain to be a very good player in my lead up to describing the hand.
So after this hand I'm 15th of the 1201 players left. It's not realy a deep stack tournament as the blinds have to go up quite quickly to finish by next summer only playing at most a hand a day. No prizes, but it's a unique format where you have up to 5 hours to make each decision. In the heat of battle, with no reads on the player, I don't think there is anyway I could have folded my set in this spot.
That makes 3 of us in it so far, me (TML24), you (Greg Pietrykiewicz) and Beanie42.
I don't know if I have it in my to put down a set unless the board is REALLY gross. I think you can assume he doesn't have a 2.
A-A is possible, but there are lots of hands he could have that are NOT A-A.
I call.
As far as the flop play goes... do you want to take him off his hand? Probably not. More likely you want to bet as much as you can talk him into since he is probably way behind.
Preflop action takes him off the 2 unless he was making a move on you (has he made these kind of plays before when there are a couple limpers to him?). His push on the turn is extremely weird......... if he hit his str8 why not try to keep you around? I put him on AK(hearts).
Wader