Ultra-tight aggressive games - Strategy?

ScoobyD

Just to give a rough idea of the games: Many times folded around to blinds. Most of the time someone will make a LP raise. I'd guess half the time there is no flop, and the other half might be simply a steal raise vs. a BB defending. OK, I know, I should simply avoid these games. Unfortunately, I have a bonus half cleared on one of the old Party skins, and these games have suddenly (since the Party move) become the tightest most aggressive LL games I've seen in awhile. I know I need to adjust my game, but I'm just trying to figure out what my overall strategy should be to exploit these bastards. Obviously, I generally will take more shots at stealing in a tight game like this, and in general I'm more willing to defend my bliinds vs. a likely steal raise. The problem I find is that in a super-aggressive game, it's tough to find the spots to steal (since if I'm in the CO, or button, many of the super-aggressives may have already opened for a raise in MP with a hand like 33, A-little suited, paint-paint, etc. Should I be more willing to cold-call the super aggressives raises in position? Or 3-bet to isolate? I'm guessing I should be much more willing to 3 bet decent starting hands vs. an open raise in mid to late position (since I know these TAGs raising requirements represent that of a LAG in LP). I'm thinking I need to work the limp-reraise into my game more often as well in EP (which I would almost never use in a looser game). Don't get me wrong, I certainly am not looking for these types of games, but I think being able to adapt is beneficial to the learning curve in the long run. I haven't read HPFAP yet either, and I'm wondering if that might provide some insights... Thoughts?

SirWatts

3-bet more liberally preflop against steal raises and open with a few more hands from late position/defend your blind with a few more hands. If these players are capable of folding when they miss you may want to consider mixing in some bluffs.

ScottyZ

Also, tighten up significantly on implied odds hands. When you're making the pre-flop moves that SirWatts is talking about (stealing, re-stealing, etc.), favour high card strength above suitedness or connectedness. You'd rather "take off the gloves" against an aggressive player pre-flop with hands that have strong showdown value.

A tight-aggressive full ring game often takes on many characteristics of a standard short-handed game. But don't go crazy with this idea. The fact that 9 or 10 pre-flop hands are dealt out rather than 5 or 6 still matters. If you're too aggressive in a 10-handed game, you'll find yourself running into legitimate starting hands more often than you might have expected.

Finally, player reads become more important than usual. Who is the table cannon? Which players defend their blinds a lot? Who is on auto-steal in LP? Who are the weak targets? Poker Tracker (or similar) can be invaluable here.

ScottyZ

BBC Z

Give up the bonus and move on to greener pastures.

ScottyZ

BBC Z wrote:

Give up the bonus and move on to greener pastures.

It really depends on how many (expected) BB/100 hands the bonus is worth, compared with the EV differential of chosing a softer game.

We would need to know the exact details of the bonus (among other things) to be able to draw conclusions about optimal game selection.

ScottyZ

ScoobyD

Give up the bonus and move on to greener pastures.

I would, but I figure as long as I can break even, it's still free money.   I'm gone from the site once the bonus is cleared.  That being said, I think I may defer my bonus clearing to weekend games, where the tables are at least a little looser...

Poker Tracker (or similar) can be invaluable here.

Yes.  I'm seeing players with VPIP of 10-20% and PFR of basically the same.  The type of player that won't cold call raises, won't limp hands period, if he's entering the pot it's with a raise (which isn't generally a bad characteristic). That being said a pfr of 15% still seems excessive, so as SirWatts said, I'd guess his opening raising requirements are a little on the loose side, so 3 betting legitimate hands more liberally would seem to make sense...

ScottyZ

I would, but I figure as long as I can break even, it's still free money.

This is an over-simplified way of thinking about it I think.

If you are a 0 BB/100 player collecting a 0.5 BB/100 (expected) bonus, is this superior to beating a softer game for 2 BB/100?

On the other hand, if you were collecting a 10BB/100 bonus, it would be hard to imagine a soft enough game (at the same limit) to justify giving up that bonus.

ScottyZ

ScoobyD

You're right of course. I guess I should have clarified that I think the bonus incentive outweighs the difference in win-rate. I looked at my stats from last night and roughly 1/3 of the pots were raked (at 1-2 which is a trivially tiny amount for their rake structure at this level). I originally needed to clear 2k raked hands, which would correspond to 6k hands played at this raked hands/hand rate (which I had no idea would be anywhere near this brutal). So I figure the bonus ($200) is worth 1.67BB/100 at 1-2. Still pretty hefty. Being as I only need 500 more raked hands to clear it at this point, I'm pretty sure it's worth playing it out...

ScottyZ

So I figure the bonus ($200) is worth 1.67BB/100 at 1-2.

That seems to be the correct BB/100 calculation as of the point in time when you started clearing the bonus.

Assuming the $200 is payed out all at once after you finish the 2000 raked hands,1 the bonus is worth much more than that right now as measured in BB/100.

Since you have 500 raked hands left (roughly 1,500 total hands), the bonus is, as of right now, paying you at a rate of 6.67 BB/100. Basically, since you only have 1/4 of the bonus condition remaining to satisfy, the per 100 hand bonus rate quadruples.

Clearing this bonus is an easy decision.

Amusingly, during the last 100 hands (~33 raked hands) of bonus collection, the bonus pay rate will be a generous 100 BB/100. With 1 raked hand remaining, your expected bonus pay rate is going to be a half-decent 3,300 BB/100. You could be up against Bellagio Table #1 for the last few hands of the bonus period and still be playing profitable poker.

ScottyZ

1If paid out in smaller increments, say $10 or $20 at a time, the bonus still nets you around 1.67 BB/100 as of right now. Chosing between a tough game with bonus, or a soft game without the bonus is probably a close decision in this case.

ScoobyD

Ya, I came up with that 6+BB/100 figure too, realizing the skewed numbers were because I had a trivially tiny number of hands left to clear. Whether the ORIGINAL decision to clear the bonus was +EV was what I was trying to guesstimate (which has little bearing on whether I should play it out now or not). Reminds me a lot of making a slight mistake early in a hand, but being compensated later by the odds the pot is offering as to whether you should continue in the hand (sort of).

ol-stone-face

ScottyZ wrote:

You could be up against Bellagio Table #1 for the last few hands of the bonus period and still be playing profitable poker.

Now that's one Big Blind I would not want to post. Interesting analysis though.