Was this a "good" lay down??
Playing 1/2 NL at Seneca.
Hero has ~$200 in seat 7 after about two and a half hours of good play.
Villian has ~$145 in seat 9. New to the table. Has only played maybe 3 hands. Only one to the showdown (he won with A-Ko).
Hero is UTG with :kd :10d.
Raise to $10. Villian calls. One LP calls and BB calls.
Flop comes down...
:ah :qh :jh
Hero bets out $65. Villian immediately raises all-in for $135. Other two players fold. On our Hero....
He mucks, showing top straight. Villian's jaw drops. He shows :ac :qs as he racks in the pot.
Next hand, Villian peeks, mucks, scoops and runs to the cashier.
Questions, Comments, Insights into the Hero's laydown. (Background note: Hero is uncannily unlucky to the suck-out!!!)
Hero has ~$200 in seat 7 after about two and a half hours of good play.
Villian has ~$145 in seat 9. New to the table. Has only played maybe 3 hands. Only one to the showdown (he won with A-Ko).
Hero is UTG with :kd :10d.
Raise to $10. Villian calls. One LP calls and BB calls.
Flop comes down...
:ah :qh :jh
Hero bets out $65. Villian immediately raises all-in for $135. Other two players fold. On our Hero....
He mucks, showing top straight. Villian's jaw drops. He shows :ac :qs as he racks in the pot.
Next hand, Villian peeks, mucks, scoops and runs to the cashier.
Questions, Comments, Insights into the Hero's laydown. (Background note: Hero is uncannily unlucky to the suck-out!!!)
Comments
Why the overbet of the pot on the flop? You had a call of 70 into a pot of 220? There's no way I could be that sure I was called by someone who just hit a flush, especially since his best holding would be KhTh. More likely K9h, T9h or worse. I guess someone could have called a big raise pre-flop with this but I hope not. I don't think I could lay this down.
I would have folded pre-flop. Attempting to limp-in UTG is dangerous, even at an uber-passive table. I just can't see raising with this hand in LLNL.
On the flop, and as the hand actually went, I'd bet out less, probably around $30. I'd be in a tough spot if raised on the flop.
After the actual flop bet of $65, and knowing that I'd be closing the action for another ~$70 more, I don't see how I can fold it. However, it's game theory time. You probably appear to be "pot committed" (whether or not you actually are). Does your opponent know this when he raises? Does he know that you know this? etc., etc.
What level of thinking is your opponent at? It's even not unlikely that your opponent is a Level 0 thinker, not even seeing beyong his own hole cards, let alone thinking about pot odds, pot commitment, or the like.
Having seen the opponent only 3 hands, you have to go with the truly barebones reads. Did he fumble his chips sitting down? Did he know how to post a late position blind without being reminded to do so? Did he squeeze out his hole cards underneath cupped hands, or hold them up right in front of his nose?
Are these basic reads really going to help you? To be honest, probably not too often. However, against a player who showed any sign of inexperience at all, I think that calling the extra $70 is fairly automatic. While a newbie would certainly move all-in with a made flush, he'd probably move in with a lot of other hands too, like one pair of Aces, KQ, Qx Xh, or even Xx Xh. Who knows what a newb is capable of?
Against an unknown and/or thinking player, it's more tricky. I still favour a call, but it seems like a closer decision knowing nothing at all about the opponent, rather than the case when you have even an elementary read. While an experienced player may try to bluff more than a beginner, the beginner will be betting for more weak hands for (what the beginner thinks is) value.
Change up the order of your playing philosophies. Make your "big" laydowns pre-flop, and loosen up when you face small bets (realtive to the pot size) with strong (though possibly non-nut) hands. It's a little unnatural to bet more than 3 times the pot pre-flop with a mediocre drawing hand, and let the hand go for a fraction of the pot when you actually connect with a reasonable flop.
ScottyZ
- did you want a caller? or everyone to fold so you got the $3 in blinds?
- but that wasn't your question....
So you bet out $65 on this flop... what is the other seat thinking?
- given that you raised with KTs you could have anything. I'm not sure that he knows that so lets assume he gives you credit for your solid raise preflop.
He has probably put you on KK, AK, QQ or JJ - 99, maybe AQ. Most people would slow play AA UTG and wait to be reraised.
- So out of those probable hands only JJ, QQ, have him beaten. The draw he wants you to go away from is KK with the flush draw.
If you hit a set or QQ or JJ it would be very wierd that you bet here, especially three times the pot.
*Just a note alot of players get scared when they see that flop and they have a set, you can almost see it from across the room - lots of great opportunities to reraise a bet when 3 flush cards or str cards hit and there has been BIG action preflop*
Your bet represents a few plausible possibilities
1- your an amazingly cunning player, and have completely outfoxed him with a set (or in your case a straight)
2- you have top pair - AK which he beats
3- you have best draw - which he is beating right now
4 - your on a complete bluff representing this flop, which he beats
75% of those possibilities are in his favor, 25% is in yours, this is a good pot so he would like to take it down here. He needs to push you off our heart flush draw with K, so going all in here makes alot of sense.
-- do you call?
- what could he be holding? does he play suited connectors? the pot is offering you just under 2-1 for your call.
- Your obviously very aggressive, so why wouldn't he let you bet yourself into this one? Is he trying to scare you away?
- your ahead to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, - AK, the only plausible holding that could beat you is suited connectors. And if he had that flush, would he try to get you out of the pot?
- You have to call here, you may get broke but that is the wonderful world of variance when you play KTs (which by the way I really like, not sure if I could/would come out UTG like that).
I think you should be leaving that table right along with the villain. You have shown your aggressiveness can be easily tamed with a re raise, and your raises are not behind very solid hands. If your going to stay at this table for this session, you have to shift gears and tighten up.
But playing that weak/aggressive and showing it will spell doom for you at the table.
Oops, thought he has $200 in front of him so $135 more. Your actually getting 3+ - 1 on your call.
Everything else still applies, however, it would be very difficult to get nut flush draw to lay down (3-1 are the odds needed to make this call).