tournament question

Chris

first let me start off by saying i've just made back to back final tables and i'm high as a kite. one tournament had 475 players and todays had 175. i've always done well making it into the money but was never aggressive enough to consistantly make the final push down the stretch. i think i've fixed that area of my game and have been getting deeper as of late.

here is my final hand and i'm wondering if i should of folded ak. the big stack had been bullying really well, and i knew dan needed to make a call, and could have any medicore hand. if i had qq this is a no brainer but ak might be a hand to possibly lay down here since it's only ace high, but then again i think im getting 4:1 on what could very well be a flip sitution eventhough we are three handed. third place is quite a jump in the money and the blinds were about to run through jpz22. the table was really tight trying to inch up, but after this doublele knockout the last three went crazy and jpz22 acyually finished 2nd! (basically double fourths payout)

Seat 1: JPz22 (11,430)
Seat 2: bpreston14 (31,850)
Seat 4: TreMomey (175,255)
Seat 5: dantheman32 (14,074)
Seat 8: Chris (22,391)
JPz22 antes 300
bpreston14 antes 300
TreMomey antes 300
dantheman32 antes 300
Chris antes 300
Chris posts the small blind of 1,200
JPz22 posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chris [Ah Kd]
bpreston14 folds
TreMomey raises to 174,955, and is all in
dantheman32 calls 13,774, and is all in
Chris calls 20,891, and is all in
JPz22 folds
TreMomey shows [Tc Qh]
dantheman32 shows [Kc Qc]
Chris shows [Ah Kd]
TreMomey: here we go
Uncalled bet of 152,864 returned to TreMomey
crocd99 (Observer): wow
foulky (Observer): wow
TreMomey: ten
crocd99 (Observer): ten
*** FLOP *** [2s Qs Ac]
CaneBrain888 (Observer): wowowowow
crocd99 (Observer): ten
crocd99 (Observer): ten
*** TURN *** [2s Qs Ac] [Ts]
crocd99 (Observer): yes
*** RIVER *** [2s Qs Ac Ts] [9s]
TreMomey shows two pair, Queens and Tens
Chris shows a pair of Aces
TreMomey wins the side pot (16,634) with two pair, Queens and Tens
dantheman32 shows a pair of Queens
TreMomey wins the main pot (45,222) with two pair, Queens and Tens
TreMomey: did i win>
crocd99 (Observer): damn
foulky (Observer): OMG
TreMomey: ?
CaneBrain888 (Observer): you lucky dog
bpreston14: LOL
dantheman32 stands up
Chris stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 61,856 Main pot 45,222. Side pot 16,634. | Rake 0
Board: [2s Qs Ac Ts 9s]
Seat 1: JPz22 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: bpreston14 folded before the Flop
Seat 4: TreMomey showed [Tc Qh] and won (61,856) with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 5: dantheman32 (button) showed [Kc Qc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 8: Chris (small blind) showed [Ah Kd] and lost with a pair of Aces

ScottyZ

A very clear fold.

As you pointed out, you only have Ace high. Why risk your tournament life in a case where you don't have a made hand?

It's 5-handed, and your effective M-ratio is well over 2, so you have all the time in the world to wait for Aces. Why go broke with an unsuited, unpaired hand? It's not even an easy call with QQ here. There will be lots of opportunities later on in the tourney to play small pot poker, and take advantage of your skill edge.

Just because the big stack has been playing very aggressively lately, doesn't mean that he doesn't have a legitimate hand. Don't forget that it's always possible for even an aggressive player to pick up a big hand. I put him on KK or better.

Finally, the fact that another comfortably stacked (effective M is over 1) player has already called the raise is a major factor. Remember, to simply call a raise by itself you need a much stronger hand than usual. However, to overcall in this case, you pretty much need a monster. This is the Gap concept in action. Sklansky would fold here without a second thought. You should too.

ScottyZ

ScoobyD

A very clear fold.

Snap.

It's 5-handed, and your effective M-ratio is well over 2, so you have all the time in the world to wait for Aces.

Crackle.

I put him on KK or better.

Pop.

Finally, the fact that another comfortably stacked (effective M is over 1) player has already called the raise is a major factor.

Giant mushroom cloud.

I think my sarcasm detector just exploded.  I don't know what M-ratios are since I still haven't had the luxury to read Harrington's books, but ratios of 1 and 2 doesn't really sound huge.  I think this is a no-brainer call if you want to win.  If the payout between 4th and 5th is monstrous I might consider folding. But seriously with blinds of 4k in an orbit eating roughly 20% of your stack do you seriously expect to see a better hand than AK before you get blinded off?

Nice post Scotty.

SirWatts

ScottyZ, defender of a bad beat post free forum. Owned.

ScottyZ wrote:

This is the Gap concept in action. Sklansky would fold here without a second though. You should too.
ScottyZ

But if your name is Bill Fillmaff you can increase your gap by 6 inches.

Chris

thanks for being a dick, scotty.

i was just asking for opinions because jpz got a good deal and essentially made double what i got eventhough he was the smallest stack and the blinds were about to eat through him. sometimes it's not all about 1st, it's about moving up spots if the increase is significant. the chip leader had roughly 3/5 of the total chips with five of us left.

thanks for confirming i made the right play - which by the way i happened to call in a flash. but after reviewing i still don't think it's as automatic as you make it sound considering the remaining stacks were relative equals and i had just sruvived the blinds. not to mention there is a big jump to 3rd place money and 2nd is double what i got for fourth.

i won't try to contribute here or share any more of my joy from future successes. i thought in a canadian forum it would be more of a community with less pricks but obviously i was wrong.

keep reading sklansky and harrington, your understanding of inflection points is most impressive.

the_main

ScottyZ wrote:

A very clear fold.

As you pointed out, you only have Ace high. Why risk your tournament life in a case where you don't have a made hand?

It's 5-handed, and your effective M-ratio is well over 2, so you have all the time in the world to wait for Aces. Why go broke with an unsuited, unpaired hand? It's not even an easy call with QQ here. There will be lots of opportunities later on in the tourney to play small pot poker, and take advantage of your skill edge.

Just because the big stack has been playing very aggressively lately, doesn't mean that he doesn't have a legitimate hand. Don't forget that it's always possible for even an aggressive player to pick up a big hand. I put him on KK or better.

Finally, the fact that another comfortably stacked (effective M is over 1) player has already called the raise is a major factor. Remember, to simply call a raise by itself you need a much stronger hand than usual. However, to overcall in this case, you pretty much need a monster. This is the Gap concept in action. Sklansky would fold here without a second though. You should too.

ScottyZ

scotty, you just broke my sarcasm detector

Hork42

How big is the payout difference between 5th and 4th (and 3rd)?

What is your goal? 1st place or to move up the money ladder?

There is a decent chance you can move up a spot or two if you sit this hand out. I'd consider folding here. This is very close to an example that Sklansky points out where folding AA is correct. (That example is a more extreme case - essentially 3 all-ins of equal stacks, assuring you of an instant jump of two places)

pkrfce9

Woah, woah, woah. Get off the Scotty man.

I have to agree with his reasoning, even if he was kidding - and I'm not so sure he was. I'm not so worried about the first guy all-in if he had been playing recklessly but the second guy called. With players behind him, unless they were all pussies, he's gotta have a very good hand.

So how does AK stack up against 2 all-ins? It won't win 50% of the time. Even against a lousy 22, you are an underdog. I'm not sure how good of a hand I'd have to be holding to be willing to call all-in against 2 others. I don't think 99 would do it. TT, probably not. JJ not likely. QQ probably. KK almost certainly.

Even with AA, you are unlikely better than 60%. Based on the shortness of your stack, you are unlikely to crack the top spot. Best bet is to look to move up as much as possible but avoid calling all-in against 2 players.

SirWatts

Yikes Scotty is just havin some fun no worries. The real money in poker tournaments is in the top 3, but especially top 2, but espeically top 1. This is your chance to get there. The caller figures to have the big stack beat so there's no reason to think he's going to bust this hand anyways,and then you're the one in trouble. Seriously, folding here is a big mistake. Folding to move up in the money is usually a bad idea.

pkrfce9

Interesting point. Given the huge disparity between Chris' stack and the big stack, how good are his chances to take first? I would not think high but I'm not as experienced in these situations.

I'm curious if you'd rather call 2 all-ins with AK or QQ. What if we drop it to JJ, TT, 99, etc.

SirWatts

If he wins he has 62K and the big stack is down to 153K. This isn't that bad a deficit (one double up through chip leader and we lead). Sure we're still an underdog but if the big stack keeps playing recklessly we might have decent chances. Our chances of making it to 2nd are decnt here though for sure. Iwould be surprised if 2nd is 3 times more than 5th. Finally if we beat the shortstack and lose to big stack as happened we still move up a spot. Everything points to call.

Chris

SirWatts wrote:

Yikes Scotty is just havin some fun no worries.

he can disagree with me 100%, that's fine. what's laughable is that in this instance i think we actually agree with eachother. that's why i made the call. i just thouht i would open it for discussion because of the huge disparity between the stacks and first place being seemingly out of reach. you can learn a lot from sharing ideas with other players. when he answers as sarcastically as he did it's a form of down talking and shows absolutely no respect to someone asking a legitimate question. it actually made me a little bit furious because he was talking to me as if i'm an absolute imbecile, and i think i deserve slightly more credit than that. (although i do make my fair share of retarded plays.)

SirWatts

That's fair enough, though I really don't think this play is very close and you're blinded by the result a bit, no offense. That's pretty normal though.

ScoobyD

Wow, I guess Scotty's the new resident jackass of the forum! BBC must be gettin soft...LMAO.

BBC Z

here is my final hand and i'm wondering if i should of folded ak. the big stack had been bullying really well, and i knew dan needed to make a call, and could have any medicore hand. if i had qq this is a no brainer but ak might be a hand to possibly lay down here since it's only ace high, but then again i think im getting 4:1 on what could very well be a flip sitution eventhough we are three handed. third place is quite a jump in the money and the blinds were about to run through jpz22. the table was really tight trying to inch up, but after this doublele knockout the last three went crazy and jpz22 acyually finished 2nd! (basically double fourths payout)

I think this post is far less than a usual bad beat story because there are serious implications about allowing two of your opponents battle it out to the death and moving up a rung on the ladder late in MTTs.

thanks for being a dick, scotty.

Post of the year.

Wow, I guess Scotty's the new resident jackass of the forum! BBC must be gettin soft...LMAO.

Yeah, you ladies wish.

ScottyZ

I got carried away with trying to make a joke at someone else's expense, and it was taken harder than I had expected. This, I regret. I feel awful about it.

I'll have to admit that I was probably blinded by the hand analysis aspect of the OP. Very few poker decisions are absolutely clear cut, black and white, 100% right or wrong. In my opinion, the OP is an example of one of these decisions.

I felt that the decision here was so obvious that I actually had trouble writing my initial attempt at a "straight up" reply. How do you convince someone that the sea is the sea? I got the idea of a sarcastic/satirical reply when I started thinking about the possible arguments for folding, or more accurately, what kinds of alternative tournament scenarios would bring a fold into consideration.

I also got the idea of using a lot of the cliche tournament folklore ("risking your tournament life", "AK is not a made hand", etc.) in an attempt at a satirical commentary on how people communicate about poker in general. I can see how this could easily be seen as me being condescending, going overboard, or whatever.

This was just a case of bad decisions and bad writing all around. It's pretty common to say something like "I don't know what I was thinking" here, but I pretty much did know what I was thinking. It's just that my ideas were both poorly presented, and dubious to begin with anyway.

i thought in a canadian forum it would be more of a community with less pricks but obviously i was wrong.

Trust me on this one. I know what you are talking about.

ScottyZ

ScoobyD

It's just that my ideas were both poorly presented, and dubious to begin with anyway.

I for one thought it was a riot! The fact that, at first glance, the post appeared to be a typical, well thought out explanation (except with some horridly dubious arguments) just made it better. I think satirical more so than sarcastic is the word of choice. I didn't see it as an attack post, but more a convoluted way of presenting what the original poster already knew, that the call was, in fact, the correct play.

Chris

alright, i probably overreacted. initially it felt really condescending but after your explanation i can understand where you wre coming from. nice hand.