$5-$10 Hand: River Play
$5-$10 limit holdem at PokerStars. No players are known.
I make a new player post $5 in the cutoff. One MP limper, I check the option with T4o (no spades), BB checks. All others have folded.
$17 in the pot, 3 players. Flop is AJT rainbow. Checked around.
$17 in the pot, 3 players. Turn card is an offsuit 4, completing the rainbow. BB bets, MP calls, I raise, BB folds, MP re-raises, I call.
$84 in the pot, 2 players.
Opponent bets the river. $94 in the pot, $10 to call. Board shows AJT 4 rainbow.
What is your action on the following river cards?
a) 6
b) J
c) Q
ScottyZ
I make a new player post $5 in the cutoff. One MP limper, I check the option with T4o (no spades), BB checks. All others have folded.
$17 in the pot, 3 players. Flop is AJT rainbow. Checked around.
$17 in the pot, 3 players. Turn card is an offsuit 4, completing the rainbow. BB bets, MP calls, I raise, BB folds, MP re-raises, I call.
$84 in the pot, 2 players.
Opponent bets the river. $94 in the pot, $10 to call. Board shows AJT 4 rainbow.
What is your action on the following river cards?
a) 6
b) J
c) Q
ScottyZ
Comments
FLOP: bottom pair on the button...im not a big fan of mindless bets on the button but given the extremely scary nature of the board to our villains here, why not toss one in there and see if we cant just pick this pot up right now.
TURN: well thats quite the pickle. the call/reraise line taken by the MP player after a flop check and a supposed brick (which coincidentally enough...isnt a brick for us) on the turn just seems to scream were beat here. The pot is $74 when we are 3bet... its going to cost us $20 to win $84 here. Are we good once in four times? I personally dont think so. Id dump to the 3bet. Bottom two just isnt really that strong here.
***AFTERTHOUGHT*** Its kinda important which cards are the spades. If the Ace is the non-spade, we can possibly feel were ahead of some sort of As Xs type hand that is getting frisky. If the Ace is a spade, i think that just puts the nail in the coffin.
RIVER:
A) call
C) fold
The flop was actually rainbow, and 4th street completed the full rainbow. No flushes (or flush draws) were possible, so just ignore the suits in the list of possible river cards.
Oddly enough, it wasn't too hard to find the hand where I lost more than one big blind on a T4o.
ScottyZ
C) call
Signed,
The Calling Station
(B) Without any real read, I'd fold. But I'm also sort of tempted to raise here.
(C) Call.
I think analizing the MP's play is an important part of this exercise. What's he thinking about at this point..
Pre-flop. Flat call in MP without knowing too much else about the table or the player isn't entirely telling. MP's thinking, "I want to play this hand, but I don't want to raise with it from MP" Tranlation: Low probability of a monster. Higher probability of a speculative hand.
Flop. MP now sits in the coveted last to act position. The blinds check, so he also checks. What's he thinking here? It's a pretty scary flop as a gut-shot straight draw is a possible holding for the blinds. No raise from the blinds, so they probably don't have top pair. Most people in last position will bet here to try to win the pot outright or scare off draws. (though, there is no flush draw here) Why woudln't you bet here in last position? a) You have a monster and want others to catch up. b) You've got nothing and don't want to bet into such a co-ordinated board.
I think the important thing to note is that if MP has hit the Board, he's choosing not to protect it.
Turn: MP checks, then re-raises a check-raise. At the point of the call/re-raise, you guys are heads up, so his bet isn't meant to scare anyone else out of the hand. Why is he doing it at this point? You're representing a big hand by the way you've played it, ye old check-raise on the turn. What's going through the Mind of MP?
If he has a monster hand, there one of two thought processed I'd be going through a) my only opp as CR'd me. He likes his hand, so there's no need to hide my strength anymore. Let's start raising and hope we get into a raising war. b) my opp has CR'd me. I'm going to call this bet, as I expect the SB will make a continuation bet on the river which I can then raise him to extract another bet.
If he doesn't have a monster, then the re-reraise on the turn almost sounds like he wants to see the hand to the end, and knows if he calls, he's have to call a river bet, so why not raise and find out where I am?
Last thing he could be thinking; everyone's shown weakness pre-flop and flop, is the SB making a play at the pot on the turn? If so, can I make a play back at him?
I think the important piece of information here is, does the MP believe that his re-raise is a value bet or a probbing bet?
What hands match these conditions.
AA-KK(possibly QQ): Yes. I could see him play it this way on each street.
JJ->88: Not likely, I'd expect a pre-flop raise to protect the hand a bit
77->22: Possibly, lots of people limp with low pairs pre-flop, but I'd expect him to bet the flop to find out where he is at that point with these hands.
AK-AT: Not likely, I'd expect a pre-flop raise.
Ax: Possibly, as he has to assume he's the best at the flop.
KQ: Yes. This hand fits well
xJ (K or Q, maybe 9 if suited): very possibly. He might think that second pair is a strong enough hand vs. random blind hands
xT: Unlikely. I'd see him bet the flop with this.
JT: Yes. This hand fits well.
The range of hands isn't looking pretty mixed big for you. At worst, he's ahead with a straight or two-pair, you're hoping he's on KK or QQ as you're ahead after the turn. I'd give you a 40% change of being ahead on the turn.
In all cases I think you have to at least check-call at this point. If he bets, you're getting almost 9.5-1 and if you take the rule that unknown players buff 10% of the time, you're pretty much getting odds to call, since your hand beats a bluff, plus a few others. Case by case...
a) Best card for you here. Gladly check-call this one. (Though part of me REALLY wants to check-raise here. I'd mostly likely check call with the scary turn re-raise.)
b) Worst possible card for you. Most hands you could beat, now beats you as your two-pair have been counterfieted. You're pretty much reduced to being able to beat bluffs at this point. This would get a VERY grudging check-call from me.
c) Not as bad a b), but still bad as it only doesn't improve Ax. A slightly less grudging check-call
C) Call
At this point, I think I am probably beat. I will give him A-J, A-T, K-Q, A-4, J-4s, T-4s or a set (all of which beat me - or tie) AND I will give him A-K and A-Q which I have beat. I am likely to call down, but I am worried.
Call. Enough to hope he's got A-K or A-Q.
I probably muck. The only thing I am hoping for is T-4s and that is unlikely.
Ugh... I probably call hoping for A-9 or something else that I hadn't, to this point, imagined.
The actual river was a Q. Opponent bet, I folded, opponent did not show.
As of the turn 3-bet, I had decided that I would (at least) call the river, unless a gross card (i.e. Jack through Ace) came. On a river brick, though I obviously wouldn't feel great about my hand, I figured I had at least some chance that my hand was good. In real time, I very roughly figured I was going to need about a 20% chance of my hand being good on the river (given that it is a brick), to take off the river card.
However, on the actual river Queen (and similarly for a J, K or A), I can't imagine the opponent having a worse hand than two pair, unless he has just run one if the most elaborate stone-cold bluffs I have ever seen. I think that the key idea here is that the non-stone-cold bluffs (i.e., the semi-bluffs) have now made hands better than Tens-up.
ScottyZ